1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may face a situation where supply gradually decreases while demand remains stable. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is also advised to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2] - The cast aluminum market may experience a situation of converging supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory. Similar to the above, light - position oscillating trading is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,910 yuan/ton with no change; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,806 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,778.50 US dollars/ton, down 17.50 US dollars. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spreads for Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - **Positions and Inventories**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum changed, with Shanghai aluminum and alumina positions increasing and cast aluminum positions decreasing. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,100 tons to 491,225 tons, while the alumina total inventory increased by 33,021 tons to 239,607 tons [2] - **Other Indicators**: The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.53, up 0.05. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 2,258 hands to 15,505 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, alumina spot in Shanghai Non - ferrous, and other products changed, with some prices decreasing and some remaining unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all weakened [2] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount, and LME aluminum premium and discount also changed, with the former increasing by 20 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton and the latter decreasing by 4.64 US dollars/ton to 12.88 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production increased by 35.98 million tons to 792.47 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.53 percentage points to 88.27%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part increased by 3.73 million tons to 725.80 million tons [2] - **Import and Export**: The export volume of alumina increased by 7 million tons to 25 million tons, while the import volume decreased by 3.44 million tons to 6 million tons. The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.40 tons, and the export volume increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 4,523.20 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [2] - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum both increased, while the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy and automobiles increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index decreased [2] - **Volatility**: The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money increased slightly [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese central bank and other departments created two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, injecting billions of yuan into the market and boosting investor confidence [2] - The US President sent a signal to ease trade tensions, and the Trump administration relaxed some tariff policies [2] - A video call was held between Chinese and US economic and trade representatives, and they agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation of copper concentrates has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. - On the supply side, due to many maintenance cases and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. In addition, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, which also affects smelting profits, and the operating rate may decline, leading to a gradual convergence of domestic refined copper supply. - On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, adopting a wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converge. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,380 yuan/ton, up 990 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,665 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 226,910 lots, up 11,337 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 10,843 lots, down 3,770 lots; the LME copper inventory is 137,225 tons, down 225 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, up 275 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 41,319 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,630 yuan/ton, up 855 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 85,920 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. - The basis of the CU main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 16.83 dollars/ton, down 5.67 dollars. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The output of refined copper is 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,990 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 71,550 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6.7706 trillion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.37 billion pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.79%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.96%, up 0.19%. - The at - the - money implied volatility (IV) of the current month is 19.2%, down 0.0153%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 [2]. Industry News - The head of the Financial Stability Bureau of the central bank said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's financial risks are generally controllable, financial institutions operate steadily, and the financial market runs smoothly, providing strong support for high - quality economic development. - Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another rate - cut path. - US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, suggesting that the door remains open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing a number of tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and proposing to exclude more products from tariffs when countries reach trade agreements with the US. - The People's Bank of China and other departments have created two monetary policy tools to support the capital market - stock repurchase and increase re - loans and swap facilities, with an initial quota of 800 billion yuan in total. In the past year, the two monetary tools have injected hundreds of billions of yuan into the market through counter - cyclical adjustment, effectively boosting investors' confidence, reducing the volatility of the A - share market, and enhancing the internal stability of the capital market. - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2].

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's financial risks are generally controllable, with financial institutions operating steadily and financial markets functioning smoothly, providing strong support for high-quality economic development [1] Group 1 - The financial stability bureau of the People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of recognizing existing risks and challenges in the current economic operation [1] - There is a need to maintain a balance between promoting growth and preventing risks, highlighting the necessity of a bottom-line thinking approach [1]