Market Overview - In September, the market experienced fluctuations but maintained a bullish trend, with the CSI All A Shares Index rising by 2.80% and the Convertible Bond Index increasing by 1.97% for the month[7][10]. - The market faced a significant adjustment from September 2-4, primarily due to weakened expectations for market stability and a breakdown in the tech sector's consensus, particularly in AI computing and semiconductors[7][10]. Investment Themes - The underlying logic supporting the bull market remains intact, driven by stability, technology, and anti-involution narratives, with a new factor emerging: the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2][22]. - High elasticity themes with medium to long-term narratives, such as solid-state batteries, energy storage, and robotics, are favored by the market, while themes closely tied to domestic demand are less attractive[2][35][43]. Convertible Bonds - Despite a divergence in sentiment between on-market and off-market funds, convertible bonds still present upward opportunities, supported by ongoing stock performance and a persistent demand for yield[3][51]. - The valuation of convertible bonds has shown volatility, with a significant portion of trading days in September experiencing declines, indicating a challenging environment for investors[3][51]. Strategy Recommendations - The current market strategy should focus on thematic investments, particularly in high-growth technology sectors and those benefiting from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, such as non-ferrous metals[3][49]. - For convertible bonds, maintaining a controlled position while actively participating in the rotation of high-equity varieties is recommended, especially in sectors like technology and those benefiting from anti-involution and rate cut narratives[3][66].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the stock market has shown a V-shaped rebound, supported by institutional buying, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 1.14% and 1.77% respectively, while the STAR Market surged by 7.23% [1] - The technology sector has emerged as the absolute leader in the market rebound, with significant performance from chip leader Cambricon, reinforcing the upward momentum in the domestic computing power sector [2] - The report indicates that the concentration of market gains in the technology sector suggests a potential crowding effect, with the TMT sector's current crowding degree at the 65th percentile since 2016, indicating room for further growth [3] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.81% and 0.94% respectively, with significant declines in internet stocks, possibly linked to Meituan's disappointing earnings report [4] - The report notes that the overall market sentiment is reinforced by the "big drop - rebound" pattern, with a strong expectation of market stabilization, suggesting that potential adjustments may be limited [5] - The release of the Central Government's opinions on promoting high-quality urban development could serve as a test for the market's sensitivity to industry benefits outside of technology, potentially affecting capital flows [6]

[Table_Title] 资产配置日报：有变化 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 幅度（%） | 五日走势 | | 上证指数 | 3800.35 | -68.03 | -1.76% | | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4386.13 | -66.46 | -1.49% | | | 中证可转债指数 | 476.94 | -13.82 | -2.82% | | | 7-10 年国开债指数 | 264.67 | -0.02 | -0.01% | | | 3-5 年隐含 AA+信用指数 | 189.70 | 0.05 | 0.02% | | 复盘与思考: 8 月 27 日，股市高位震荡，投资者内部观点或出现分化，大户、散户、主力日内先后止盈离场，机构资金成 主力买盘，各大股指在午后遭遇调整，上证指数尾盘跌幅扩大至 1.76%，勉强守住 3800。尽管股市表现不佳，但 债券现券表现也相对一般，T 与 TL 主力合约分别上涨 0.0 ...