以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者岭南人鱼机 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 来源丨 霞光社（ID：Globalinsights） 作 者丨岭南人鱼机 编辑丨李小天 图源丨摄图网 7.52%。 这是2025年上半年，越南的GDP增速，创下了十五年以来上半年最高增速记录。而今，在多个经济 体深陷消费疲软、经济下行，面对变动频繁的关税制裁焦头烂额之际，位于东南亚的新兴国家越南， 却逆势展现出了与众不同的蓬勃生机与增长活力。 宏观经济的增长性决定了资本的流向。2025年前六个月在越南实现的外国直接投资（FDI） 资金估 计达到117.2亿美元，同比增长8.1%。 这也是2021-2025年期间，前六个月实现的最高外国直接投 资金额。 欣欣向荣的发展红利，也吸引众多出海中企纷至沓来。2025年一季度，在越南新注册的中国企业数 量为391家（1月至3月中旬），相比2024年同期（约300家），增速超30%。如果这个趋势延续不 断，今年落地越南的中国企业数量预计将突破1500家。 这是整个东南亚发展最快的经济体。 如果放在更长的时间维度看，自1985年，越南正式宣布革新发 展策略，逐步推行私有化改革和开放市场以来，四十年间平均每年 ...

以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者岭南人鱼机 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 本文来自微信公众号： 霞光社 ，作者：岭南人鱼机，编辑：李小天，文中配图由作者提供，题图来 自：AI生成 7.52%。 这是2025年上半年，越南的GDP增速，创下了十五年以来上半年最高增速纪录。而今，在多个经济 体深陷消费疲软、经济下行，面对变动频繁的关税制裁焦头烂额之际，位于东南亚的新兴国家越南， 却逆势展现出了与众不同的蓬勃生机与增长活力。 特朗普不高兴，特朗普要加税。7月，特朗普单方面宣布通过越南转运进入美国的商品则征收高达 40%的关税；而据越南谈判团队称，之前双方商定的关税为11%，而非20%，且对11%的共识早已达 成。但是，由于越南对美出口占比长期维持在28%~30%，这份话语权的份量对于越南来说，无论怎 么选，都得忍痛。 另一方面，则是自由市场在越南的局限性。新加坡第一任总理李光耀在《李光耀谈观天下》一书中， 提及越南领导人"对改革是三心二意的，他们并不明白一个满意的投资者会吸引许许多多其他投资者 前来的道理。"而"那些来自南部并了解资本主义运作的成功商人，多数都已在上世纪70年代逃离越 南。" 面对国家机器运转中僵化、腐败 ...

Group 1 - Vietnam faces a critical deadline on July 9, 2025, where failure to reach an agreement with the U.S. could result in a 46% tariff on key exports such as textiles and electronics [1] - The negotiations are influenced by U.S. efforts to disrupt Chinese supply chains, compelling Vietnam to sign agreements that would reduce tariffs to 20%-25% in exchange for blocking Chinese transshipment [1][3] - In 2024, 12% of Vietnam's $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. was derived from goods that were transshipped from China, indicating a significant reliance on this trade route [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has implemented strict measures, including requiring Vietnam's customs system to connect to the U.S. traceability database, which tracks sensitive goods from raw materials to finished products [3] - Vietnam has imposed anti-dumping duties of 19.38%-27.83% on Chinese steel, effectively severing the transshipment channel [3] - New regulations require that at least 55% of the value of products must be added locally in Vietnam to qualify for lower tariffs, posing challenges for manufacturers who primarily rely on Chinese components [3][5] Group 3 - Vietnam is attempting to balance its economic ties with China while enhancing its relationship with the U.S., a strategy referred to as "bamboo diplomacy" [5] - Following the signing of agreements, the U.S. unexpectedly raised tariffs on Vietnamese steel to 50%, leading to significant order cancellations for local aluminum companies [5] - The textile industry in Vietnam is heavily dependent on Chinese materials, with 60% of fabrics sourced from China, making it difficult to comply with new regulations [5] Group 4 - Chinese companies are adapting by establishing production facilities in Vietnam while retaining core technology in China, indicating a shift in the supply chain dynamics [7] - The construction of the China-Laos railway and the development of the Lancang-Mekong economic belt are efforts to bypass U.S. maritime blockades [8] - Southeast Asian countries are responding to U.S. pressures by tightening customs regulations, impacting companies like Apple, which plans to relocate a significant portion of its production out of Vietnam [8] Group 5 - The overall impact of these trade tensions is detrimental to all parties involved, with Vietnamese manufacturers struggling to maintain profitability under the new tariff regime [10] - U.S. companies, including Nike and Apple, are warning that increased costs will ultimately be borne by American consumers [10] - The complexities of global supply chains mean that tariffs may not effectively block goods, as companies find ways to navigate through technology and market strategies [12]

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is undergoing a significant institutional reform aimed at reducing the number of administrative units, which is expected to streamline governance and enhance economic efficiency [1][5][12]. Group 1: Institutional Reform - Vietnam plans to reduce the number of provincial administrative units by approximately 50% and local institutions by over 70% [1][3]. - The reform includes the elimination of county-level administrative units, transitioning to a "province-village" administrative structure [15][18]. - The current administrative structure is seen as overly complex, with 63 provincial units for a country comparable in size to Yunnan province in China [6][12]. Group 2: Economic Context - Vietnam's economy is experiencing rapid growth, with a GDP of $476.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.09% [31][32]. - The government has set an ambitious economic growth target of 8% for 2025, up from a previous target of 6.5-7.0% [30][32]. - The country aims to achieve high-income status by 2045, requiring a doubling of its GDP within 20 years [35][36]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The reform is expected to reduce the appeal of public sector jobs ("iron rice bowls") as the economy expands and private sector opportunities increase [23][25]. - Vietnam is positioned to benefit from global industrial shifts and has established a robust free trade framework through agreements like RCEP and CPTPP [41][42]. - The ongoing reforms are part of a broader strategy to enhance economic growth and political stability, akin to China's past reforms [43][50].