Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar (USD) due to the policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with resilient trade relations between China and Australia and fluctuations in oil prices [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The core driver of the AUD's movement is the difference in central bank policies, with the market betting on an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, while JPMorgan suggests a pause in rate cuts [1] - The RBA maintained its interest rate in November, indicating a "slightly restrictive" policy stance, which supports the AUD, especially after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Oil Prices - China, as Australia's largest trading partner, has stable trade in iron ore and liquefied natural gas, which supports the Australian economy [1] - Despite Goldman Sachs lowering its 2026 Brent oil price forecast to $58 per barrel, short-term oil price fluctuations have not impacted Australia's energy exports significantly [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a "bottoming rebound" for the AUD, with the exchange rate recovering from a low of 0.6373 and breaking through the resistance at 0.653 [1] - The 5-day moving average has crossed above the 10-day moving average, forming a golden cross, with a new support range established between 0.651 and 0.652, and short-term resistance at 0.655 [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - The weekly level shows a trend of oscillating upward, with the Bollinger Bands expanding, indicating a brewing trend [2] - Differing institutional views exist, with some predicting short-term resistance at 0.655-0.658, while others suggest that if the Fed cuts rates, the AUD could reach 0.66 [2] - The upcoming US CPI and Australia's fourth-quarter inflation report will be crucial in determining the future direction of the AUD [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the black - series commodities generally declined. In the second half, prices may fall again to find cost support and then gradually stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter due to production cuts and policy expectations [2] - The cost decline is an important factor in the decline of steel prices. In 2025, the high iron - water output did not drive up steel prices because of the loose supply of upstream raw materials [3][10] - Manufacturing and exports supported steel demand in the first half of 2025. However, the demand growth rate may slow down in the second half [40][48] - The output of crude steel is expected to decline year - on - year in the second half of 2025. The iron - water output may show a pattern of first stabilizing, then declining, and then increasing [71] - Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory. The steel industry chain will jointly seek cost support, and prices may gradually stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter [74][78] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost and Supply - **Coal**: In the first half of 2025, domestic coking coal production increased, with the output from January to April at 156.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Although production decreased in May due to safety inspections, it is expected to gradually recover in July. Imports remained at a high level, and the total domestic coking coal supply in the first half is expected to increase by 8.5 million tons year - on - year [14] - **Iron ore**: In February, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons year - on - year due to hurricanes. The shipments basically remained flat in the first half. The expected increase in 2025 is less than the end - of - 2024 forecast, about 11 million tons, and is expected to exceed 40 million tons in 2026 [20][33] Demand - **Manufacturing**: In the first half of 2025, the steel demand in manufacturing increased. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles, home appliances, and machinery all increased. However, the demand growth rate may slow down in the second half [40][48] - **Export**: From January to May 2025, steel exports reached 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Although exports to Vietnam decreased, those to other regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America increased. Indirect exports also increased, but may face pressure in the second half [44] - **Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment growth rate was 5.6%, but it declined from April to May, especially in May. The steel demand in the infrastructure industry is facing a differentiated situation [47] - **Real estate**: From January to May 2025, the new construction area of real estate decreased by 22.8% year - on - year. The real estate data weakened again from April to May, and the new construction is expected to remain weak in the second half [63][65] Production and Inventory - **Production**: The average daily iron - water output in the first half of 2025 was around 2.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The iron - water output in the second half may show a pattern of first stabilizing, then declining, and then increasing. The production of crude steel is expected to decline year - on - year in the second half [71] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The iron ore inventory of steel mills and the coking coal inventory of coking plants are at low levels and tend to decline further [74] Price Trend - In the short term, the prices of raw materials have rebounded. However, from July to August, the black - series commodities may weaken again. As production cuts progress, the bottom may be gradually found, and prices may stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter [78]