南华期货2026钢材年度展望 ——供需再平衡，区间震荡起涟漪 陈敏涛（投资咨询证号：Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月25日 风险提示：钢厂大规模减产风险，钢材需求不及预期，海外经济衰退风险，反内卷政策落地不及预期、 铁矿供应宽松风险 第二章、2025年钢材市场行情回顾 2025年上半年钢材价格在年初出现短暂反弹后呈现单边缓慢下跌的走势，主要原因在于钢材的消费需求 疲软，钢材的成本定价逻辑成为市场主流，而上半年围绕焦煤过剩导致的钢材成本不断下移，钢材价格跟随 焦煤不断下跌，焦煤让利给钢厂，即使在钢材价格下跌过程中钢厂仍能盈亏平衡，致使钢材价格难以反弹。 以及中途的中美关税政策利空频繁，加深了市场对未来钢材价格走弱的预期。 进入三季度，"反内卷"的政策预期从光伏行业刮到焦煤板块，多晶硅和碳酸锂的触底反弹行情形成示范 效应，叠加国家能源局公布关于煤炭超产审查的通知，使得市场对焦煤供应收紧的预期进一步升温，焦煤价 格持续升温上涨，带动了成材价格的上涨。当时产业链各环节库存整体偏低，预期推动下自下而上的补库行 为启动，叠加投机需求上升，形成成本推动型上涨。但进入8月 ...

Group 1 - The main contracts for coking coal and coke showed weak performance, with coking coal closing at 1187.5 CNY/ton and coke at 1688.5 CNY/ton, both experiencing daily increases of over 4% [1] - Supply side indicators show a significant recovery in production, with premium coal and raw coal output at 728,400 tons and 1,856,200 tons respectively, both increasing week-on-week. The operating rate of coal mines rose by 6.93% to 82.71% [2] - Demand from steel mills has increased significantly, with average daily pig iron output rising by 117,100 tons to 2,405,500 tons, which is notably higher than the same period last year [2] Group 2 - Inventory levels for premium coal at sample mines decreased by 135,600 tons to 2,545,200 tons, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. Independent coking plants also saw a reduction in coking coal inventory and available days [2] - The profit margin for coking plants decreased to 35 CNY/ton, although it remains higher than the same period last year. The market fundamentals have improved with increased supply and demand, alongside a decrease in inventory [3] - Overall, the current supply of premium coal is lower than last year, while pig iron production is higher, supported by positive policy expectations. However, there are concerns regarding steel inventory and potential supply pressures from imports [5]