1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a bearish impact on the price, considering the current low international sugar price and the fact that the bearish factors have basically materialized, and the Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, there is strong support for low - price sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high, domestic sugar inventory was low, and the sales - to - production ratio was high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Both foreign and Zhengzhou sugar are at low levels, and domestic sugar inventory is low with a firm basis. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate within a range and rebound in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side trading**: The foreign sugar price has fallen to a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The Zhengzhou sugar price has also fallen to a low level, with limited downward space. However, if Zhengzhou sugar increases in positions and breaks through the previous low, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Change** - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar supply gap will be significantly reduced to 231,000 tons compared with 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to the production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Double - week situation in the second half of August**: In the second half of August, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil increased. The cane crushing volume was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%; the sugar - making ratio was 54.2%, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%; the sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [10]. - **Accumulated situation by the second half of August**: The accumulated cane crushing volume was 403.942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%; the accumulated sugar production was 26.759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, providing strong support for the raw sugar price [17]. - **Situation in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [20]. - **India**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with an estimated total production of 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar are used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, and about 7 million tons will be carried over as ending inventory. This season may export about 2 million tons of sugar [23]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season**: The domestic sugar is in an increasing production cycle, with an expected production of about 11 million tons. The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than the previous year. The estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season is 700,000 - 750,000 tons. In Yunnan, about 51 - 52 sugar factories are expected to start production in the 2025/26 season, with the first factory likely to start in mid - to - late October if there are no special circumstances [27]. - **Import situation**: The import profit is rising, driving a strong import expectation. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, or 4.86%. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative import was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons, or 6.37% [38]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in the given content, only some data charts are presented, and no specific analysis or summary content is available.

糖浆预拌粉限制或放松 郑糖价格走弱 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，考虑到巴西迎来供应高峰，预计全球库存逐渐进入累库阶段，最近一期报告显示8月上本半月巴西中南部制糖比达 55%，累计糖产2288.6万吨，同比降幅继续缩小至4.67%。ISO预计2025/26榨季全球糖业将出现仅为23.1万吨的供给缺口，远低 于本年度488万吨的缺口。目前对于全球糖产增产预期相对比较满，美糖价格已经跌至相对偏低位，我们预计继续向下的空间有 限，但是也需关注下方关键点位的突破情况。 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 国内市场，国产食糖库存偏低，但是近期有大量进口糖陆续进口到国内市场，目前国内以进口糖供应为主流。近期市场有消息 流出可能会放松部分的公司1702项下限制，可能会对糖价形成少量的压力，但是考虑目前糖价已经处于较低位，关注关键点位 突破情况。当然如果放开部 ...