Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. Brazil's sugar production is at a historically high level, and India may export more sugar than expected, leading to a weak fundamental situation for raw sugar with a downward long - term trend [3]. - In the domestic market, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have dropped significantly. Although the supply and sales pressure is increasing, the tightening of syrup and premix imports and high previous pricing costs support the domestic sugar price. So, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, it will be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Core Logic - International sugar prices are weak due to high production in Brazil and potential high - volume exports from India. Domestic sugar prices are affected by both international factors and domestic policies, with short - term fluctuations and long - term weakness [3][4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have ended the rebound and resumed the downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range, selling high and covering low [5]. - Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar supply - demand gap is significantly narrowing. ISO predicts a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 740 - million - ton supply surplus [11]. Brazil - Sugar production is expected to remain high at 4502 million tons in the 2025/26 season, slightly higher than the previous estimate [12]. - In the first half of October 2025, the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.24%, and ethanol production showed a mixed trend [14]. - As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 0.89% year - on - year, and the ethanol price center of gravity is expected to decline due to the gasoline price cut [23]. - As of the first half of October, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region increased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the export volume in October increased by 12.8% year - on - year [28]. Thailand - The new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, and the export volume is expected to increase by 100 million tons [32]. India - The ISMA estimates the 2025/26 sugar season's total production at 3435 million tons, and the net production (excluding ethanol use) at 3095 million tons. India is capable of exporting nearly 200 million tons of sugar [41]. - As of July 2025, the 24/25 cumulative net export volume was 75.08 million tons. The November 2025 domestic sales quota decreased by 20 million tons year - on - year [41]. Domestic Market - Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have mostly started production. Rainfall may increase beet yield but reduce sugar content. Yunnan's sugar mills may start production in mid - November [42]. - Import profits are relatively high. For example, the in - quota profit from Brazil is 1750 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit is over 600 yuan/ton [47]. - In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 14.63 million tons. The import of syrup and premix decreased significantly. The predicted out - of - quota raw sugar arrival in October is 11.9 million tons [53]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Data on Brazil's central - southern region includes cumulative cane crushing volume, sugar production, bi - weekly sugar - making ratio, etc. [23][55]. - Data on India includes double - week cumulative sugar production, domestic sales quota, and export volume [41]. - Domestic data includes sugar production progress, import volume of sugar, syrup, and premix [42][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the increase in sugar production in major producing areas is being realized. Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and the fundamentals of raw sugar are weak. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, and the overall trend is expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the supply is mainly imported sugar, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the trend of the external market in the short term [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short at high levels for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation and Strategy** - International sugar prices have fallen below the previous low, with a weak overall trend. After a short - term sharp decline, a rebound and repair are expected. The domestic market is expected to be greatly affected by the external market in the short term and will also experience shock and repair. It is recommended to short at high levels for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Change - Substantial Increase in Production in the 25/26 Crushing Season** - The ISO predicts a supply gap of only 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 crushing season, a significant reduction compared to the 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six crushing seasons ago [11]. - Czarnikow raises the forecast of the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season to 7.4 million tons, the highest surplus level since the 2017/18 season. The forecast of global sugar production is raised by 700,000 tons to 185.3 million tons, the second - highest production ever, and the consumption forecast is lowered by 600,000 tons to 177.8 million tons [11]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production** - **Expected High - Level Production** - According to CONAB data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 44.5 million tons. Based on the current bi - weekly sugar production, it may increase by about 1 million tons compared to 2024, reaching around 45.12 million tons [12]. - **Seasonal Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil** - In the second half of September, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil was 51.17%, significantly lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The sugar production was 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%, and the ethanol production was 2.213 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50%. The average TRS was 157.48 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%, and the problem of low sugar content in sugarcane still exists [14]. - **Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Crushing Season** - As of the second half of September 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil was 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.68%, much higher than 48.84% in the same period last year. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has dropped to 15.26 cents/pound, and due to the recent decline in crude oil prices, the ethanol price has also weakened [23]. - **Significant Increase in Brazilian Sugar Inventory** - As of the second half of September, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 11.7067 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. In September, the sugar export volume was 3.2444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.35%. From April to September in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar export volume was 17.737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, but still at a high level compared to previous years [24]. - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand** - In the 24/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the export volume from January to August 2025 was 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.04 million tons. The 25/26 crushing season is expected to have a slight increase in production [27]. - **India** - In the 24/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. In July, the net sugar export was - 80,000 tons, and the domestic sugar sales quota in October was 2.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [31][33]. - **Domestic Market Situation** - **Sugar Mill Operations in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang** - As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operations in the 25/26 sugar - making season, and the remaining mills are expected to start soon [37]. - **High Import Profit and Strong Import Expectations** - The increase in import profit has led to strong import expectations [38]. - **Continuous Increase in Imports with a Record - High in August** - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons or 4.86%. In July, the import volume of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in August was 489,400 tons, and the expected arrival in September was 304,300 tons [50]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific summary content can be extracted from the given data. The data mainly includes various charts and graphs related to the sugar market, such as the cumulative sugar production, sugar - making ratio, and export volume in Brazil, as well as the import volume in China.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a bearish impact on the price, considering the current low international sugar price and the fact that the bearish factors have basically materialized, and the Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, there is strong support for low - price sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high, domestic sugar inventory was low, and the sales - to - production ratio was high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Both foreign and Zhengzhou sugar are at low levels, and domestic sugar inventory is low with a firm basis. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate within a range and rebound in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side trading**: The foreign sugar price has fallen to a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The Zhengzhou sugar price has also fallen to a low level, with limited downward space. However, if Zhengzhou sugar increases in positions and breaks through the previous low, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Change** - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar supply gap will be significantly reduced to 231,000 tons compared with 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to the production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Double - week situation in the second half of August**: In the second half of August, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil increased. The cane crushing volume was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%; the sugar - making ratio was 54.2%, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%; the sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [10]. - **Accumulated situation by the second half of August**: The accumulated cane crushing volume was 403.942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%; the accumulated sugar production was 26.759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, providing strong support for the raw sugar price [17]. - **Situation in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [20]. - **India**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with an estimated total production of 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar are used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, and about 7 million tons will be carried over as ending inventory. This season may export about 2 million tons of sugar [23]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season**: The domestic sugar is in an increasing production cycle, with an expected production of about 11 million tons. The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than the previous year. The estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season is 700,000 - 750,000 tons. In Yunnan, about 51 - 52 sugar factories are expected to start production in the 2025/26 season, with the first factory likely to start in mid - to - late October if there are no special circumstances [27]. - **Import situation**: The import profit is rising, driving a strong import expectation. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, or 4.86%. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative import was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons, or 6.37% [38]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in the given content, only some data charts are presented, and no specific analysis or summary content is available.

Report Title - Syrup Premix Restrictions May Be Relaxed, Zhengzhou Sugar Prices Weaken [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The ISO predicts a significantly smaller supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season compared to 4.88 million tons in the current season. With high expectations for increased global sugar production, the US sugar price has fallen to a relatively low level, and further downward space is limited, but the breakthrough of key support levels should be monitored. [3] - Domestically, domestic sugar inventories are low, but a large amount of imported sugar has recently entered the market, becoming the mainstream supply. There are rumors of relaxing some restrictions under Company 1702, which may put slight pressure on sugar prices. Given the current low sugar prices, attention should be paid to key support levels. If the rumor is confirmed, the market may react. [3] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral approach, considering the recent decline in foreign sugar prices, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered at high points within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling call options can be considered. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Short positions can be considered at high points within the range due to the expected weakness of Zhengzhou sugar following the decline in foreign sugar prices. [4] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [4] - Options: Consider selling call options. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes in the 2025/26 Sugar Season** - Supply - demand balance: The ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant reduction from 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with exports of 63.89 million tons and import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago. [6] - **Brazil's Sugar Production Situation** - **Bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region**: In the first half of August, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an 8.17% year - on - year increase; the ATR of sugar - cane was 144.83 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.34 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 55%, a 5.85% increase; ethanol production was 2.193 billion liters, a 5.21% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. [10] - **Accumulated sugar production in the central - southern region**: As of the first half of August in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar - cane crushing volume was 353.881 million tons, a 6.62% year - on - year decrease; the ATR of sugar - cane was 129.26 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.04 kg/ton; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.51%, a 3.37% increase; ethanol production was 16.071 billion liters, an 11.12% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 22.886 million tons, a 4.67% year - on - year decrease, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow from 7.76% to 4.67%. [14] - **Sugar inventory**: Brazil's sugar inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [15] - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was about 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. In the first six months of 2025, exports were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production. [16] - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a 17.6% year - on - year decrease. The ISMA predicts that in the 2025/26 season, total sugar production will reach 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar is used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, with about 7 million tons carried over as ending inventory. About 2 million tons of sugar may be exported in this season. [21] - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Production**: In the 2024/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventories remained at a low level compared to the same period. In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to recover and reach about 11 million tons (subject to weather conditions). [24] - **Import**: High import profits have led to strong import expectations. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, China imported 1.7778 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 53,900 tons or 3.12%. As of July in the 2024/25 season, China imported 3.2395 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 344,300 tons or 9.61%. In July 2025, China imported 159,700 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the total import of syrup and sugar premix was 618,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 561,600 tons. As of July in the 2024/25 season, the total import was 1.258 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 338,100 tons. [39] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in a summarized form; mainly includes various data charts such as Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production, inventory, and domestic sugar import data. [41][47][56]