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A股市场运行周报第53期:上证背离指数分化,续观望、待时机-20250809
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-09 13:32
Core Viewpoints - The overall market rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing unexpected upward divergence, while different indices exhibited varied performances. The market is expected to face short-term disturbances due to factors such as the MACD divergence and the upcoming expiration of the 24% tariff suspension on August 12 [1][4][54] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook remains a "systematic slow bull" market. Any significant pullback could present a good opportunity for reallocation [1][4][56] Market Overview - Major indices experienced a broad rally, but with divergence in performance. The Shanghai Composite Index was the strongest, rebounding 2.11% after hitting support at 3550 points, while the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices reached new highs, increasing by 2.51% and 2.74% respectively [2][11][54] - Most sectors showed positive performance, with 28 out of 30 sectors rising. Notably, the metals sector surged by 5.83%, driven by rare earths, while the healthcare sector faced pressure, declining by 0.79% [14][55] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline from the previous week. Most stock index futures contracts were trading at a discount [20][28] Fund Flows - The margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.01 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.68% from the previous week. The securities ETF saw the highest net inflow of 23.9 billion yuan [28][39] Quantitative Analysis - The dynamic valuation model indicates that major indices are reasonably valued, with the ChiNext Index at a low valuation level. As of August 8, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.69, while the ChiNext Index was at 33.79, placing it in the 19.22 percentile [46][49]