近期，债市在多重利空的影响下延续调整走势，尤其是超长端调整幅度较大，30年期国债期货创2025年以来的 新低。虽然2025年12月31日，债基赎回费率新规靴子落地，监管态度明显软化，缓解了市场的担忧情绪，但年 初开盘债市仍然面临多重利空因素。一方面，国债单期发行规模增加，供给压力加大，债券供需问题再度引发 市场担忧。另一方面，2025年12月央行买债规模仅500亿元，不及市场预期，货币宽松预期降温。此外，最新公 布的制造业PMI及通胀数据均超预期，经济基本面改善迹象明显，债市承压。 今年以来，长端利率面临基本面、股市以及供求结构的利空扰动。2026年一季度政府债继续"靠前发力"，1月供 给占比较去年进一步提升，尤其是30年期债券占比较高导致市场对超长端供需结构的担忧升温。目前1月已披露 地方债发行计划超8000亿元，而需求承接力度不足，叠加PMI和通胀数据超预期、年初股市和商品市场"开门 红"，长端债券市场压力不减。 近期经济基本面出现阶段性修复，对债市形成利空压制。相关数据显示，2025年12月制造业PMI较前值上升0.9 个百分点，至50.1%，表现超预期，主要受国内春节偏晚拉长节前备货周期、政策性金融工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - A-share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, showing a random walk state, and trading activity declined compared to last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - Treasury futures weakened collectively this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. Although the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in October was prudent, bond - buying operations still released a loose signal. The market expects short - term interest rates to continue to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. - The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut pushed up the US dollar index, and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, crude oil and gold were stable recently, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro. The Japanese yen's trend is mainly volatile in the short term [10][14]. - China's foreign trade declined more than expected in October, with exports turning from an increase to a decrease. But the positive results of the Sino - US consultation in Kuala Lumpur are expected to relieve the foreign trade pressure [15]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 0.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, and trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.06% (a weekly change of + 0.11BP), and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.19%. Treasury futures weakened this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. The central bank's bond - buying operations released a loose signal. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a risk of long - term interest rate suppression due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.90%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.51%. The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices, but crude oil and gold were stable, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar fell 0.02%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.06%. The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro [10]. 2. Important News and Events - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping some tariff - adding measures on US imports [18]. - The US federal government's shutdown set a new record, which may cause economic losses. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose tariffs on China, and the EU reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target [19]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - China's October exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1% year - on - year [15]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the ADP employment number was 4.2 million [20]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, and the September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [20]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as Japan's September trade balance, UK's October unemployment rate, and China's October social consumer goods retail sales will be released [78].

Economic Overview - In August, the national industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month growth of 0.37%, supported by high growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, while the growth rate of commodity retail decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [1] - Fixed asset investment from January to August was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, reflecting a decline in real estate development investment and a slight decrease in infrastructure and manufacturing investment [1] Foreign Trade - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month, with strong performance in electromechanical products and ship exports [2] - High-tech products, integrated circuits, and ship exports contributed 4.1 percentage points to the overall export growth [2] Policy Measures - A comprehensive policy initiative was announced on September 16 to stimulate service consumption, including 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing supply and demand [3] - The initiative focuses on increasing the supply of high-quality services and reducing consumption barriers through fiscal incentives and innovative credit options [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced over 30 policies to establish a "1+N" policy system for service consumption, with plans for further targeted documents to promote high-quality development in the accommodation sector and integration of railways and tourism [3] Real Estate and Fiscal Policy - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented new policies to relax purchase and loan restrictions in the real estate sector, with more measures expected to stabilize the market [4] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized maintaining continuity and stability in fiscal policy while enhancing flexibility and foresight to support high-quality economic development [4] Market Outlook - The stock index has shown a fluctuating upward trend driven by valuation, with economic fundamentals and corporate earnings not significantly impacting the index [4] - Future improvements in economic fundamentals and A-share profitability are anticipated, supported by coordinated policy efforts and a low base effect from the previous year [4]