证券研究报告 可选消费 国庆出行活跃，远途游及情绪消费亮眼 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 国庆中秋假期消费稳健增长，双节重叠带动文旅消费及出行数据向好 据商务部数据，国庆中秋假期前 4 天（10.1-10.4）全国重点零售和餐饮企 业销售额同增 3.3%，保持稳健增长。双节重叠+拼假潮催化出行意愿，交运 部数据显示 25 年国庆中秋假期（10.1-10.8）日均跨区域人员达 3.04 亿人 次/同比+6.2%/环比五一+3.7%，高基数下仍有增长。小城文旅、文化体验 等多元化娱乐愈发出圈。商品消费领域，各地促消费政策、国补持续提振消 费并推动品类升级，绿色健康、智能化品类增速领先，"悦己+体验"等情 绪消费需求高涨，引领品类创新及服务迭代。我们看好消费行业的结构性机 会，建议关注情绪消费、国货崛起、AI+消费等方向的投资机遇。 零售：旅游省市及中低线城市表现亮眼，绿色智能及情绪消费受青睐 1）分地区看，旅游热门省市及中低线城市表现亮眼，如青岛（+8.2%）、 南京（+5.9%）、天津（+5.0%）、广西（+11.3%）等，美团国庆县域旅游 消费订单同增 51%。线下消费稳健增 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Lingyu Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Lingyu Technology - **Industry**: Electronic Products, specifically focusing on e-cigarettes and home engraving machines Key Points and Arguments 1. **Business Transition**: Lingyu Technology initially relied on Logitech and PMI, with e-cigarette business reaching 53% of revenue, but has since shifted focus to home engraving machines, which are currently underperforming due to the U.S. market impact [2][4] 2. **Core Competencies**: The company’s strengths lie in its R&D capabilities and global presence, utilizing a UDM model to bind major clients and forming a triangular layout across Asia, Europe, and America to enhance risk resistance and production adaptability [2][5] 3. **Future Growth Drivers**: - Changes in the information tobacco (A HNB) market may lead to shifts in supplier structures among companies like PMI, potentially increasing Lingyu's market share in complete devices and components [6] - The rise of AI technology is expected to transform the consumer goods industry, providing opportunities for Lingyu to engage in emerging products due to its strong contract manufacturing capabilities [6] 4. **Financial Projections**: - Expected net profit for 2026 is projected to be between 550 million to 600 million RMB, with further growth anticipated in 2027 [3][12] - Revenue targets set for 2025 include a minimum of 5.35 billion RMB, with cumulative targets for 2025-2026 and 2025-2027 set at 11 billion RMB and 17 billion RMB respectively [8] 5. **Market Competition**: The e-cigarette market is becoming increasingly competitive, particularly in the HNB segment, with companies like PMI facing pressure from emerging brands. Lingyu is expanding from plastic components to heating modules and complete devices, with trials for PMI's fourth-generation models underway [10] 6. **Recent Initiatives**: - Implementation of a stock incentive plan and a private placement proposal to support business expansion, reflecting confidence in achieving over 20% growth [7][8] - The company is actively exploring multiple growth avenues beyond e-cigarettes, including home engraving machines, AI consumer products, brain-machine interfaces, smart control components, and automotive electronics [12][13] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Development**: Lingyu Technology has evolved through four stages since its establishment, with significant growth phases linked to partnerships and market expansions [4] 2. **Profitability Outlook**: The company anticipates moderate profitability in 2025, with a potential leap in market value and valuation in the following years [3][12] 3. **Sector-Specific Challenges**: The performance of the home engraving machine segment is currently hindered by a downturn in the U.S. durable consumer goods market, but recovery is expected with economic improvement [2][13] 4. **Collaborations**: Partnerships with academic institutions and other companies are being leveraged to innovate in AI and brain-machine interface technologies, indicating a strategic focus on high-tech growth areas [13]

Core Insights - AI is transforming the shopping experience from "assisted decision-making" to "autonomous execution" with the launch of the "Zhang Dama" app by Zhi De Mai Technology [2] - The app aims to automate various consumer scenarios, including product recommendations, price comparisons, and travel bookings, utilizing advanced technologies [2][4] - Major competitors like Meituan and JD.com are also developing their AI assistants, indicating a competitive landscape in the AI + consumption sector [2][6] Company Developments - Zhi De Mai Technology introduced the "Zhang Dama" app after the initial "Xiao Zhi" product was upgraded, focusing on cross-platform operations [3][4] - The app has shown strong user engagement, with average daily launches and conversation rounds exceeding industry averages, despite not actively seeking new users [4] - The company is facing intensified market competition as major players enhance their AI capabilities [5][6] Competitive Landscape - JD.com and Meituan have launched their AI applications, "Jingxi" and "Xiao Mei," respectively, which aim to integrate shopping and lifestyle services using AI [6][7] - Zhi De Mai Technology believes its cross-platform capabilities and deep task execution potential provide a competitive edge against these larger rivals [7] Future Directions - The company is exploring its commercial model, with a focus on enhancing user value before scaling industry and platform value [8] - Zhi De Mai Technology is investing heavily in AI, with over 50% of its R&D budget allocated to this area, indicating a commitment to long-term growth [9] - Strategic partnerships, such as the one with Huawei, are being pursued to expand capabilities and market reach [9]

Group 1 - The 2025 Yunqi Conference was held in Hangzhou from September 24 to 26, showcasing AI innovations in the consumer sector, with ZhiDeMai Technology presenting its C-end product "Zhang Da Ma" App and the B-end AI infrastructure "Haina" MCP Server [1][3] - The conference, hosted by Alibaba Group, attracted over 2,000 experts and more than 500 participating companies, unveiling over 300 AI terminal products and 200 intelligent agents, highlighting advancements in cloud computing and AI [3] - ZhiDeMai Technology has prioritized AI since 2023, focusing on AIGC as a key strategic project, and has begun innovative explorations in AI technology, applications, and ecosystem development [3] Group 2 - The "Haina" MCP Server, launched in May, integrates the company's advantages in consumer content and data, providing standardized consumption data service capabilities and adapting to large model applications [4] - The "Haina" MCP Server has multiple interfaces for content and product searches, helping users find discount information, product evaluations, and price comparisons, with an output volume of 20 million in August, a 54% month-over-month increase [4] - The server has connected with external platforms like Alibaba Cloud's Bailian platform, supporting broader AI applications and accelerating the construction of a consumer-focused AI ecosystem [4] Group 3 - ZhiDeMai Technology aims to pursue a comprehensive AI strategy, continuously exploring "AI + consumption" innovations and collaborating with partners to build a high-quality AI ecosystem [5] - The company seeks to enhance the efficiency and quality of connections between supply and demand, creating a better world where everyone benefits from consumption [5]

Group 1 - The media industry possesses dual attributes of technology application and discretionary consumption, expected to leverage AI applications to create new consumption scenarios [1] - In terms of policy, the State Council launched the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan in August 2025, followed by the Ministry of Commerce's announcement in September to expand service consumption policies, supporting the creation of quality works in film, animation, and other fields, while exploring the value of traditional cultural IP [1] - The film industry is seeing a rich supply of films for the National Day holiday, including titles like "Assassination Novelist 2" and "Life of Langlang," with average content quality, while high-quality content is anticipated to drive surrounding derivative economies [1] Group 2 - AI technology is driving the development of movie-level video generation models, enhancing content production efficiency [1] - The overall industry benefits from the spiral development of AI from hardware to application, with the intelligent internet era set to reshape entertainment experiences through immersive technology that integrates multi-sensory interactions, promoting the fusion of virtual and physical worlds [1] - The Film ETF (516620) tracks the CSI Film Index (930781), which selects listed companies involved in film and television production and distribution from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, reflecting the overall performance of the film and entertainment industry [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a high of 3899 points before a decline, with all three major indices dropping over 1% [1] - The Consumption ETF (159928) fell by 1.61%, marking a three-day downward trend, with a total trading volume of 1 billion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day [1] - The Consumption ETF (159928) attracted nearly 800 million yuan in two days, with a total size exceeding 19.7 billion yuan, leading its peers [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong Consumption 50 ETF (159268) also saw a decline of 1.43%, with a trading volume exceeding 33 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, there were net inflows on four days, accumulating over 32 million yuan [3] - Notable stocks included Pop Mart rising over 4% and China Duty Free increasing over 2%, while stocks like Anta Sports and Midea Group fell over 2% [3] Policy Measures - The State Council introduced policies to expand service consumption, selecting around 50 pilot cities for new consumption models [5] - A series of policy documents will be released to promote high-quality development in the accommodation industry and integrate railways with tourism [5] - The government plans to conduct over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities during the consumption month, distributing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [5] Service Consumption Policies - The recent policies are seen as a refinement of the 2024 guidelines for promoting high-quality service consumption, emphasizing cross-department collaboration [6][7] - The measures cover 19 specific actions across key service sectors, including culture, tourism, sports, education, and health, aiming to enhance service consumption from multiple dimensions [7] - The policies focus on practical execution and operational feasibility, introducing innovative and implementable measures [7] Key Highlights of the Measures - The policies include initiatives for service consumption seasons, targeting areas with high demand potential [8] - Supply-side measures aim to expand openness and reduce restrictions in various sectors, enhancing service product offerings [8] - Demand-side strategies focus on attracting inbound consumption and exploring new consumption forms through AI and digital services [8] - Financial support will be provided through various tools to inject liquidity into the service consumption market [8] Industry Insights - The policies are expected to boost sectors like IP economy, maternal and infant care, and AI-driven consumption [9][10] - The IP economy is encouraged to innovate and create new consumption scenarios, with strong growth in domestic IP industries [9] - Maternal and infant care will benefit from supportive policies, reducing costs and stimulating demand in related industries [9] - AI technology is anticipated to enhance consumer experiences and create new products and scenarios in the market [10] Consumption ETF Insights - The Consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with top ten holdings accounting for over 68% of its weight [11] - Key holdings include leading liquor brands and major players in the agricultural sector, indicating a strong focus on essential consumer goods [11] - The Hong Kong Consumption 50 ETF (159268) is positioned as an efficient choice for investing in the Hong Kong consumption sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas [12]

Economic Overview - In August, the national industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month growth of 0.37%, supported by high growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, while the growth rate of commodity retail decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [1] - Fixed asset investment from January to August was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, reflecting a decline in real estate development investment and a slight decrease in infrastructure and manufacturing investment [1] Foreign Trade - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month, with strong performance in electromechanical products and ship exports [2] - High-tech products, integrated circuits, and ship exports contributed 4.1 percentage points to the overall export growth [2] Policy Measures - A comprehensive policy initiative was announced on September 16 to stimulate service consumption, including 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing supply and demand [3] - The initiative focuses on increasing the supply of high-quality services and reducing consumption barriers through fiscal incentives and innovative credit options [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced over 30 policies to establish a "1+N" policy system for service consumption, with plans for further targeted documents to promote high-quality development in the accommodation sector and integration of railways and tourism [3] Real Estate and Fiscal Policy - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented new policies to relax purchase and loan restrictions in the real estate sector, with more measures expected to stabilize the market [4] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized maintaining continuity and stability in fiscal policy while enhancing flexibility and foresight to support high-quality economic development [4] Market Outlook - The stock index has shown a fluctuating upward trend driven by valuation, with economic fundamentals and corporate earnings not significantly impacting the index [4] - Future improvements in economic fundamentals and A-share profitability are anticipated, supported by coordinated policy efforts and a low base effect from the previous year [4]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notification outlining 19 measures to expand service consumption, indicating a shift from strategic positioning to practical implementation [1] - The measures include exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, increasing service consumption time for tourism, and supporting cross-industry IP cooperation and the introduction of foreign sports events [1] - Analysts believe that the combination of clear subsidy directions and financial support will stimulate the IP economy, event economy, and AI+ consumption, while also providing subsidies to residents from the demand side and reducing costs and improving efficiency from the supply side [1] Industry Analysis - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes a range of new consumption leaders, with service-oriented consumption accounting for over 50%, covering sectors such as cultural tourism, dining, sports goods, medical beauty, and freshly brewed tea [1] - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the index is 22 times, positioned at the 24.5% percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating emerging investment value [1] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (513070) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year among stock ETFs and supports T+0 trading, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on service consumption investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of the "Haina" MCP Server, which achieved 20 million external service calls in August, representing a 54% month-on-month increase [2] - The integration of AI into various industries is accelerating, but challenges such as data silos, inconsistent data quality, and lack of standards remain [2] - The CTO of the company emphasizes the need for a shift from isolated technological breakthroughs to ecosystem collaboration and standard co-construction to build an interconnected AI ecosystem [2] Group 2 - The exploration of "AI + consumption" is seen as a microcosm of promoting inclusive development in commercial services, with AI applications driving industry advancements [3] - The company has evolved its service capabilities from focusing on consumer content to a comprehensive AI strategy that enhances consumer content, smart marketing, and data services [3] - The ongoing participation in trade fairs reflects the company's commitment to upgrading its consumption service capabilities and enhancing user experience while empowering industry upgrades [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFTIS) was held in Beijing, showcasing the latest achievements in the service sector and providing a platform for policy exchange and trade cooperation [1] - The CTO of ZhiDeMai shared insights on the impact of AI on service trade and the importance of ecological collaboration and standardization during a roundtable forum [2][4] - ZhiDeMai has participated in CIFTIS for the seventh time, emphasizing its role as a member of the Global Service Trade Alliance [1] Group 2 - AI is accelerating its penetration across various industries, serving as a key driver for digital transformation and intelligent upgrades, but faces challenges such as data silos and inconsistent data quality [2] - The company has launched a series of AI products, including consumer-oriented shopping agents and marketing insight platforms, to enhance consumer services [3] - The "HaiNa" MCP Server, launched in May, provides standardized consumption data services and has seen a 54% increase in external service call volume in August, reaching 20 million [3] Group 3 - ZhiDeMai is committed to driving consumption progress through technology and has opened its capabilities to partners in the AI ecosystem to better serve consumers [3] - The company aims to create a more inclusive consumption ecosystem by promoting efficient connections between B-end and C-end services through AI [4] - ZhiDeMai's ongoing participation in CIFTIS reflects its continuous efforts to enhance its consumption service capabilities and contribute to the integration of consumption and service trade [4]