什么才是2025消费的关键词？从中我们能洞穿哪些趋势？ 答案很犀利：我们不再为简单廉价和高端溢价而买单，更愿为可感的"价值"付费。 这10个关键词，或许就是过去一年中国消费者心态的真实底色。 NO.1 情绪价值 红极一时的Labubu告诉我们，大家买的不是玩具，是多巴胺。 2025年，消费从"功能属性"向"精神属性"大迁徙。能更好提供情绪价值的商品，一件潮玩、一张卡片，也能卖出"轻奢品"的价格。 NO.2 IP实体化 情绪需要载体，而当这个载体足够大时，它就会打破次元壁。黑神话悟空开线下店，哪吒电影带动城市旅游、长春动植物园火爆全网…… 2025年，IP不再局限于屏幕，变成了你可以走进的乐园、可以握在手中的周边。虚拟IP正在通过文旅和零售，在这个现实世界里疯狂"圈地"。 NO.3 质价比 从性价比到质价比，今天的消费者不再是单纯图便宜，而是要"好货低价"。 瑞幸用9块9咖啡暴打星巴克，徕芬用同样质感价格便宜10倍的吹风机抢占戴森市场。 大家不再盲目为品牌溢价买单，而是转向那些品质有保障、价格更划算的高质价比产品。 NO.4 安全感 2025，金价狂涨，大家反而越涨越买。 因为比起理财，黄金带来的那种"握在手里 ...

请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 2026年1月8日 可选消费投资策略 可选消费&海外团队 证券分析师：刘文正 SAC NO: S1120524120007 目录 01 可选消费宏观观点 03 可选消费各行业观点 02 近期政策解读 1 01 可选消费宏观观点 2 对比美日等发达国家，中国服务消费仍有广阔的 增长空间 我国GDP中消费占比仍低，横向对比仍有广阔增长空间。横向对比，根据世界银行，2024年我国居民消费占GDP比例为39.93%，与美/日/韩等发达国 家相比仍处相对低位。纵向参考，美国居民消费占GDP比例在过往60年间缓步上行，2024年居民消费占GDP比例67.93%/较1960年6.78pcts;日本在 1970s经济转向内需导向，居民消费GDP占比从1970年的45.67%提升至2022年55.50%水平。与储蓄金额占GDP比例情况结合来看，2000年以来我国储蓄 金额占GDP比重远高于美/日/韩等发达国家，系居民消费习惯偏于保守的直观体现。 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 19 ...

12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。 深入实施提振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 目前，消费已成为我国经济增长的重要引擎，拉动效应愈发凸显。2025年，通过更加积极的财政政 策"组合拳"，保持财政支出强度，更大力度支持"两重"项目，加力扩围实施"两新"政策，供需两端激发 消费潜力。 中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院首席经济学家刘锋表示，当前，中国经济已从要素驱动、投资拉动的 传统模式，转向以内需为主导、创新为驱动的高质量发展阶段。中国拥有全球最大规模的中等收入群 体、完整的产业体系与不断升级的消费结构，内需潜力巨大。 数据显示，前11个月，我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全 年。 从最新数据来看，今年前11个月，全国消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额突破2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6 亿人次。前11个月，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、通信器材类商品零售额同 比分别增长14.8%、18.2%和20.9%。 中国轻工业联合会副会长刘江毅于发布会上表示，今年1至11月， ...

景顺长城研究部基金经理 创金合信消费主题基金经理 随着经济产业变革与消费群体迭代，公募基金在消费领域的投资方法论正经历一场静默而深刻的重塑。 近日，在证券时报举办的"攻守之道：新消费'高波动'背后的定价逻辑重构"主题沙龙上，来自长城基 金、景顺长城基金、创金合信基金的基金经理在主题演讲环节一致认为，传统的、以白马龙头为核心的 投资框架已难以充分捕捉当前市场的结构性机遇，取而代之的是对细分新需求的深度挖掘。 他们特别指出，Z世代(1995～2009年间出生人群)的崛起，不仅带动了国潮、悦己、体验式消费等新兴 赛道的蓬勃发展，其独特的价值观念与消费习惯——更注重情绪价值、社交属性与可持续性——正在从 根本上重构消费产业的增长逻辑。因此，告别路径依赖，系统性地理解和投资于由新人群驱动的新需 求、新模式与新品牌，已成为把握未来消费投资机会的关键所在。 消费分层影响细分产业紧抓新生代需求 长城基金国际业务部副总经理、基金经理曲少杰认为，消费行业已告别传统增长模式，进入物质消费理 性化、精神消费奢侈化的双轨新常态。这一变化并非简单的消费降级，而是消费分层的凸显。考虑到Z 世代的消费潜力巨大，未来消费领域的布局应聚焦这一群 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [1]. Group 2: Core Insights - Xiaomi Group is advancing its AI capabilities with the MiMo-V2-Flash model, which optimizes inference costs and speeds, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem across devices, vehicles, and homes [1][10][12]. - The MiMo model serves as an AI ecosystem entry point, positioning Xiaomi as a unique player in the physical world, potentially enabling a competitive edge through a closed-loop commercial model [1][12]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the pet food sector, with Petty Co. set to launch products from its New Zealand factory in Q1 2026, which is expected to improve performance after previous capacity constraints [15][17]. - The silver economy is gaining attention, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing elderly care services and expanding the workforce in this sector [18][19]. - The AI and 3D printing industry is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in exports of 3D printers from China, indicating a robust market environment [21][22]. - The report notes the strong performance of Stanley products on Amazon, with significant year-over-year sales growth across multiple regions, indicating a successful market strategy [25][27]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Xiaomi Group - The MiMo-V2-Flash model is a key component of Xiaomi's AGI strategy, achieving a leading cost-performance ratio with optimized inference costs of 0.7 CNY per million tokens for input and 2.1 CNY for output [10][12]. - Xiaomi's integration of AI into its mobile operating system enhances cross-device collaboration and user experience, positioning the company for high-end market opportunities [13][14]. Pet Food Industry - Petty Co. is preparing to launch products from its New Zealand factory, which is expected to significantly boost sales starting in Q1 2026 [15][17]. - Honeycare, a brand under Youpai Co., has achieved top sales in its category on Amazon, indicating strong market performance [17]. Silver Economy - The government has outlined a plan to enhance elderly care services, aiming for a more comprehensive and diverse service model by 2027 [18][19]. AI and 3D Printing - China's 3D printer exports have surged, with a year-over-year increase of 89% in quantity and 136% in value, reflecting a thriving industry [21][22]. Stanley Products - Stanley's sales on Amazon have shown remarkable growth, with a 168.73% increase in the U.S. market, indicating effective product strategies and market penetration [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the concept of "Reward Economy," which is seen as a strategic initiative to expand domestic demand. The media industry, with its dual attributes of technology and consumption, is positioned to leverage this trend to stimulate curiosity-driven and emotional consumption [3][4]. - The cinema sector is expected to benefit from increased consumer spending on experiences, particularly during festive seasons, with a lineup of both domestic and international films anticipated to boost box office attendance [4]. - The IP derivatives market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from 174.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 335.7 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Media Industry Performance - The media sector has shown a relative performance of -1.1% over the past month, -8.0% over three months, and a positive 10.4% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Changes in population structure are influencing consumer behavior, shifting focus from mere material acquisition to a holistic enhancement of life quality, including spiritual and emotional satisfaction [3]. - The "Reward Economy" reflects a growing demand for meaningful consumption, where purchases are driven by emotional significance rather than just functional needs [3]. Cinema and Experience Economy - The cinema sector is highlighted as a key player in the experience economy, with strategic investments in IP and social consumption aimed at attracting younger audiences [4]. - Notable companies like Wanda Film and Shanghai Film are adapting their business models to focus on IP-driven ecosystems that resonate emotionally with consumers [4][8]. IP and AI Integration - The report identifies a growing market for IP-related products, including toys and trading cards, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The IP toy market is projected to grow from 75.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 167.5 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 17.2% [4][8]. - AI-enhanced products, such as AI toys and smart glasses, are emerging as new consumer choices, further driving engagement in both online and offline experiences [7][8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on cinema chains (e.g., Wanda Film, Hengdian Film), IP-related products (e.g., Mango Super Media, Aofei Entertainment), and new experience-driven exhibitions (e.g., Oriental Pearl, Bilibili) as potential investment targets [8].

| 载 □ | | 社区 | + | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 德必集团 | +19.99% | 22.51 | 0.00 | | 创源股份 | +19.98% | 28.22 | 0.00 | | 德艺文创 | +13.66% | 10.07 | 3.60 | | 欢乐家 | +12.77% | 32.49 | -0.49 | | 柏星龙 | +11.75% | 31.96 | 1.17 | | 新诺威 | +11.76% | 34.79 | 0.12 | | 天创时尚 | +10.04% | 8.33 | 0.00 | | 合百集团 | +10.04% | 8.33 | 0.00 | | 新华都 | +10.04% | 9.32 | 0.00 | | 西王食品 | +10.03% | 3.62 | 0.00 | | 红棉股份 | +10.03% | 3.73 | 0.00 | | 合兴包装 | +10.02% | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 上海九百 | +10.02% | 11.09 | 0.00 | 12月19日，消费板块再度走强，多只个股强势上涨。 截至13时20分 ...

今日（12.18），大消费板块回调，消费ETF（159928）收跌0.5%，全天成交额2.4亿元！资金再度逆市涌入，全天获1400万份净申购，近5日累计"吸金"超3 亿元！ 聚焦大消费板块，估值性价比仍极具吸引力。截至12月17日，消费ETF（159928）标的指数市盈率TTM为19.4，处于近10年3.17%分位点，比近10年历史上 近97%的时间便宜，估值性价比更高！ 年底将近，市场风格将如何演绎？信达证券指出，每年Q4存在基于投资者配置思路变化的季节性规律，容易成为风格变化的高发期，特别是12月市场风格 更容易偏向低估值。（来源：信达证券20251109《年底容易成为风格变化的高发期》） 【2026年新消费如何看？】 犒赏经济概念今日上涨。消息面上，12月17日，高层发表文章《何为"犒赏经济"》，所谓"犒赏经济"，是指消费者在面对工作生活压力或特定的心理需求 时，通过购买价格在承受范围内的非必需品或体验服务，以获取即时性愉悦感、自我确认感和心理疗愈的一种经济活动。例如，上班族在回家路上购买一份 精致的甜点、大学生考试结束后抢购一张演唱会门票，这种消费行为越来越成为时下年轻人的选择，也是观察当前我国消费市 ...

底气：厚植"制造沃土"，AI"钱塘军团"拔节生长 1956年，约翰·麦卡锡等科学家在达特茅斯会议上首次提出"人工智能"概念，半个多世纪以后，人 工智能正为千行百业带来一场颠覆性变革。作为规上工业总产值及制造业规模连续多年保持全市第一 的"优等生"，钱塘雄厚的制造业基础、丰富的产业门类，让这里成为了人工智能最好的"练兵场"和"试 金石"。 "推动人工智能深度融入实体经济，这正是杭州充分发挥'场景驱动、龙头引领、全域赋能'的发展 特色。"浙江大学计算机学院副教授、博士生导师、人工智能系副主任况琨表示。 杭州东部的钱塘江畔，一场以"智"为名的创新浪潮澎湃涌动：12月18日，钱塘（新）区将召开加快 建设人工智能产业新高地推进大会。这不仅是一场行业聚会，更是在国家"十五五"规划明确"全面实 施'人工智能+'行动"的战略背景下，一座制造业强区向全球创新力量发出的深度邀约和转型宣言。 人工智能之于钱塘，是关乎生存与发展的战略要务。当前，杭州市正加速打造"296X"先进制造业 集群，人工智能更是被列为其中的万亿级主导产业。以这场大会的召开为标志，钱塘正向着人工智能产 业新高地全速进发。 聚焦"人工智能+"重点行业，钱塘系统发 ...

Market Overview - On December 17, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3822.51 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.1% to 12927.39 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.03% to 3072.62 points [1] - Key sectors such as aquaculture, lithium mining, and precious metals opened higher, while the film and commercial aerospace sectors experienced adjustments [1] Company News - Shengyang Technology's subsidiary FTA signed a cooperation agreement for a South American project with a leading satellite company based in Europe, which has capabilities in satellite network layout [2] - Aerospace Information's main business does not involve commercial aerospace, focusing instead on digital tax and smart business products [2] - China Energy Construction's global largest green hydrogen ammonia integrated project, the Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park, commenced production, with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons of green hydrogen and 200,000 tons of green ammonia and methanol [3] - Silan Microelectronics' 12-inch high-end analog integrated circuit chip manufacturing project has received investment approval, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [3] - China General Nuclear Power's joint venture has begun construction on the Ningde No. 6 nuclear power unit, utilizing the Hualong One technology with a capacity of 1210 MW [3] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to implement a strategy to expand domestic demand, focusing on enhancing consumer willingness and capacity [6] - The AI health application sector is experiencing explosive growth, with Ant Group's "Antifortune" app reaching over 15 million monthly active users [11] - The storage chip market is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance, with SK Hynix warning of a continued DRAM shortage until 2028, which is more severe than previous forecasts [8] - The commercial real estate market is under pressure, with a 17.3% year-on-year decline in sales area in November, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to October [15]