2026 年度展望：海外政策&海外宏观 20251125 2026 年海外政策和经济的展望是什么？ 2026 年的海外政策和经济展望主要集中在特朗普的中期选举策略上。特朗普 将围绕中期选举展开一系列政策行动，财政和货币政策将保持宽松，以营造有 利于美股和美国经济的环境，从而吸引选民支持。此外，贸易政策可能会出现 反复，尤其是关税冲突，市场情绪可能会逐步乐观，但也存在突然恶化的风险。 美国经济预计将呈现先抑后扬的态势。短期内，由于政府停摆，美国经济可能 受到阶段性冲击，但随着下半年宽财政、宽货币政策逐步出台，美国经济将在 2026 年下半年开始扩张周期，三季度触底回升，四季度通胀压力上升。 在大 类资产方面，黄金和 AI 被认为是最佳组合，各占一半。此外，股票、商品和短 期美债也将受益于宽松的财政和货币政策，而 10 年期美债则可能进入震荡状 态。美元指数全年相对看弱，但需关注欧元、日元和英镑等主要构成货币的变 化。整体来看，美联储降息预期较高，但需要关注 2026 年 3 月、4 月是否降 息，以及 5 月、6 月关税冲突再度激化时美债利率和美元指数的变化。 特朗普在 2026 年的中期选举中面临哪些挑战？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - A-share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, showing a random walk state, and trading activity declined compared to last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - Treasury futures weakened collectively this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. Although the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in October was prudent, bond - buying operations still released a loose signal. The market expects short - term interest rates to continue to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. - The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut pushed up the US dollar index, and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, crude oil and gold were stable recently, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro. The Japanese yen's trend is mainly volatile in the short term [10][14]. - China's foreign trade declined more than expected in October, with exports turning from an increase to a decrease. But the positive results of the Sino - US consultation in Kuala Lumpur are expected to relieve the foreign trade pressure [15]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 0.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, and trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.06% (a weekly change of + 0.11BP), and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.19%. Treasury futures weakened this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. The central bank's bond - buying operations released a loose signal. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a risk of long - term interest rate suppression due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.90%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.51%. The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices, but crude oil and gold were stable, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar fell 0.02%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.06%. The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro [10]. 2. Important News and Events - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping some tariff - adding measures on US imports [18]. - The US federal government's shutdown set a new record, which may cause economic losses. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose tariffs on China, and the EU reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target [19]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - China's October exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1% year - on - year [15]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the ADP employment number was 4.2 million [20]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, and the September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [20]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as Japan's September trade balance, UK's October unemployment rate, and China's October social consumer goods retail sales will be released [78].

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) dropped 0.40% to 775.68 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.67% to 8926.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.09% to 3340.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 0.19% to 37.02 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.3%, and the US dollar index was at 97.02 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 775.81 yuan/gram, up 0.71% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8929.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.20%. London gold was at 3332.15 dollars/ounce, down 0.11%, and London silver was at 36.88 dollars/ounce, up 1.58%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [3]. - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.3500%, and TIPS increased to 2.0200%. The US dollar index rose 0.35% to 97.1185, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545. Major stock indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, all rose, while the VIX index fell 1.56% [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Policy Expectations - The "Big and Beautiful Bill" passed the House of Representatives, and the US's loose fiscal policy is about to be implemented, which requires a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Despite the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, silver prices remained resilient [2]. - The US added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, higher than the expected 110,000 and the revised previous value of 140,000. The non-farm government employment sub - item contributed 73,000 jobs, and the education and health services sector added 51,000 jobs. The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts [2]. - The implementation of the US's loose fiscal policy will increase the pressure on US Treasury bond issuance, and the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting with a more dovish stance and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Against the background of the expected loosening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, attention should be paid to the long - term opportunities for silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and that for Shanghai silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [2]. Group 4: Data Summary - For gold on July 3, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3336.00 dollars/ounce, down 0.97%; trading volume increased by 16.99% to 151,500 lots; and open interest decreased by 1.42% to 435,000 lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 781.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68%; trading volume decreased by 11.96% to 267,500 lots; and open interest increased by 0.82% to 413,800 lots [6]. - For silver on July 3, 2025, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 37.04 dollars/ounce, up 0.68%; open interest decreased by 5.53% to 174,600 lots; and inventory decreased by 0.18% to 15,529 tons. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 8944.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.25%; trading volume increased by 47.09% to 923,300 lots; and open interest increased by 10.21% to 927,300 lots [6]. Group 5: Price Structure and Spread - COMEX gold and silver, London gold and silver, and Shanghai gold and silver all have corresponding near - far month price structures and spreads. For example, on July 3, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 7.46 yuan/gram, and for silver was 446.74 yuan/kilogram [49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of strong U.S. employment data on market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in gold futures prices [1][3] - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 110,000 and the revised previous value of 140,000, with government employment contributing significantly [3] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House of Representatives indicates a forthcoming implementation of expansive fiscal policy in the U.S., which will require accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The current trading range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is between 760 and 801 yuan per gram, with resistance levels at 785-790 yuan and support levels at 750-760 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The "broad fiscal" policy continues to exert force, promoting economic normalization and continuous recovery, and the business environment for enterprises is improving [6]. - The bond market will experience the second "self - correction" in 2025, with yields likely to rise due to profit - taking as the economy improves [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Income Side - In April 2025, the non - tax revenue growth rate was 1.66%, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating that the local government's fiscal stress has been significantly relieved and the business environment for enterprises is improving [4]. - In April 2025, the tax revenue growth rate was 1.91%, returning to positive growth, better than the negative growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, reflecting the boost of economic recovery on tax revenue [4]. - In April 2025, the land transfer revenue growth rate was 4.27%, turning positive again and reaching the highest since 2021, indicating that land transfer has become normal [4]. Expenditure Side - In April 2025, the general fiscal expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, significantly higher than that in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 and higher than the 2025 annual fiscal expenditure plan target of 4.4%, indicating strong fiscal expenditure intensity [5]. - In April 2025, the government - funded expenditure growth rate reached 45%, the highest since 2022, showing that government - funded expenditure has gradually become normal [5]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The "broad fiscal" policy does not depend on the issuance of special treasury bonds but on the "fiscal expenditure growth rate". After September 2024, the economy recovered as fiscal expenditure growth accelerated without the issuance of special treasury bonds. The requirement of the Politburo meeting on April 25 may mean further acceleration of fiscal expenditure [7]. Bond Market Outlook - The current bond market still implies a 20 - 50bp interest rate cut expectation. As the broad fiscal policy and fiscal expenditure intensity accelerate, the economy in April - May is expected to continue to improve, and the bond market may self - correct with yields rising due to profit - taking [8]. - The central bank's core of observing and evaluating the bond market is to form a "normally upward - sloping yield curve". Currently, the bond yield curve is flat or inverted, and the central bank may take regulatory measures to push up long - term yields [8]. - With the weakening impact of reciprocal tariffs and the implementation of broad fiscal and credit policies, the current may be the annual economic low point. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates again is low, and the bond market is expected to return to a reasonable level corresponding to the policy rate, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield at around 1.8% - 2.1% [8].