Report Summary 1. Hot News - Since January 1, 2026, the interest rates of existing "provident fund + commercial loans" have been lowered synchronously. For provident fund loans issued before May 8, 2025, the first - home mortgage rate for terms below 5 years dropped to 2.1%, and above 5 years to 2.6%; the second - home mortgage rate for terms below 5 years dropped to 2.525% and above 5 years to 3.075%. The 5 - year LPR for commercial loans dropped to 3.5%, and borrowers can choose a repricing cycle of 3, 6, or 12 months [2] - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month. All three indices entered the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity [2] - Since January 1, 2026, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has officially entered the charging period. Initially, 6 product categories including steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen are included, and it is planned to expand to about 180 steel and aluminum - intensive downstream products by 2028 [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The DCE announced that coking coal options will be listed for trading on January 16, with a maximum order quantity of 1,000 lots per order and a position limit of 8,000 lots [2] - US President Trump claimed that the US successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela. The US oil embargo on Venezuela remains fully in effect, and large US oil companies will invest billions of dollars to repair Venezuela's dilapidated oil infrastructure. The UN Secretary - General is shocked, and the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action in Venezuela at 10:00 local time on January 5 [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: PVC, Shanghai nickel, platinum, crude oil, and plastics [4] - Night - session varieties' performance on Wednesday's day session: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.00%, precious metals 32.96%, oilseeds and oils 8.02%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 10.08%, energy 2.39%, chemicals 10.50%, grains 1.20%, agricultural and sideline products 3.43%, soft commodities 3.97%, and non - ferrous metals 25.45% [4][5] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, involving sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel, and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc [6] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | CSI 500 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.74 | 0.19 | 0.19 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.87 | 2.76 | 2.76 | | | German DAX | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.20 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.07 | | | | | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 1.01 | - 0.32 | - 0.32 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.78 | - 0.37 | - 0.37 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | | | LME Copper | - 0.49 | - 0.29 | - 0.29 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 2.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.19 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 4.33 | - 2.94 | - 2.94 | [7]

Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [2][8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, also returning to the expansion zone [2][8] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month, signaling overall economic recovery [2][8] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and consumption upgrade policy for 2026, with an initial funding of 62.5 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods [2][3] - The subsidy for purchasing new cars is set at 12% or 10% of the car price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan, maintaining the 2025 standards [2][3] - The scope of household appliance subsidies has been narrowed to six categories, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15%, and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [2][3] Market Performance - On the last trading day of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% to 3,968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% to 13,525.02 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.23% to 3,203.17 points [5][11] - The market turnover was reported at 20,659.23 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day [6][12] - The two-margin balance was recorded at 25,552.84 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous day [6][12] Sector Analysis - The defense, media, and real estate sectors showed strong performance, with increases of 2.13%, 1.54%, and 1.13% respectively [5][11] - Conversely, the telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and electronics sectors experienced declines of 1.35%, 1.10%, and 1.02% respectively [5][11]