房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 12 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 8.26 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 8.2 | 19.7 | 18.0 | 16.2 | 15.3 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招商蛇口 | 9.17 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0 ...

7月10日，《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》发布。其中，在优化住房消费新供给方面提出， 进一步发挥住房公积金促进作用，支持缴存人在提取公积金支付购房首付款的同时申请住房公积金个人 住房贷款。研究制定住房公积金个人住房贷款"带押过户"政策，并开展相关业务。 NO.4 龙光集团近220亿元境内债重组方案获批 点评：这是积极响应国家扩大公积金使用范围的举措。这将降低购房门槛，减轻资金压力，刺激住房消 费，且为二手房交易带来便利，也为其他城市公积金政策优化提供示范。 NO.2 招商蛇口将发放2024年度分红17.5亿元 7月10日，招商蛇口发布2024年度利润分配方案实施公告。以特定基数，向全体股东每10股派现1.9353 元（含税），不转增股本。若享有分配权股数变动，将按总额不变原则调整每股分红。股权登记日为7 月16日，除息及发放日为17日，实际分红17.5亿元。 点评：近年来，招商蛇口通过股份回购、现金分红回馈股东，体现出对股东回报的重视。此次分红展现 其财务稳健，有利于提升投资者信心。 NO.3 苏州出让三宗宅地均底价成交 7月9日，苏州本级出让3宗宅地，总建筑面积16.10万平方米，起始价15.48亿 ...

北京提振消费24条来了。 为深化国际消费中心城市建设，北京市人民政府7月10日印发《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》（下称《行动方案》），从推动居民增收减负、优化 服务消费体验、增强商品消费动能等六方面提出24条措施，着力优化消费供给，提升消费品质，优化消费环境，减少消费领域掣肘。 针对居民在购房、购车过程中的痛点，《行动方案》进一步优化了住房消费和汽车消费政策，支持住房公积金"既提又贷"，明确将优化小客车指标配置，有力 畅通消费循环。 《行动方案》要求，力争到2030年，北京市市场总消费额年均增长5%左右，打造2—3个千亿级文商旅体融合消费新地标，在全球消费市场的辐射带动能力、 资源配置能力和创新引领能力进一步提升，国际消费中心城市建设取得新突破。 北京市商务局有关负责人指出，《行动方案》顺应消费升级趋势，把握消费热点需求，进一步优化升级消费供给。同时，《行动方案》突出改革创新，聚焦 消费领域裉节难点，激发市场活力。 支持住房公积金"既提又贷" "优化住房消费新供给"是本次《行动方案》的一大亮点。 在具体举措上，《行动方案》要求优先向轨道交通站点和就业密集地区供应住宅用地，完善"保障 +市场"住房供应体 ...

为深化国际消费中心城市建设，北京市人民政府7月10日印发《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》（下称《行动方案》），从推动居民增收减负、优化服 务消费体验、增强商品消费动能等六方面提出24条措施，着力优化消费供给，提升消费品质，优化消费环境，减少消费领域掣肘。 针对居民在购房、购车过程中的痛点，《行动方案》进一步优化了住房消费和汽车消费政策，支持住房公积金"既提又贷"，明确将优化小客车指标配置，有力畅通 消费循环。 《行动方案》要求力争到2030年，北京市市场总消费额年均增长5%左右，打造2～3个千亿级文商旅体融合消费新地标，在全球消费市场的辐射带动能力、资源配置 能力和创新引领能力进一步提升，国际消费中心城市建设取得新突破。 北京市商务局有关负责人指出，《行动方案》顺应消费升级趋势，把握消费热点需求，进一步优化升级消费供给。同时，《行动方案》突出改革创新，聚焦消费领 域裉节难点，激发市场活力。 支持住房公积金"既提又贷" "优化住房消费新供给"是本次《行动方案》的一大亮点。在具体举措上，《行动方案》要求优先向轨道交通站点和就业密集地区供应住宅用地，完善"保障+市场"住 房供应体系。为进一步发挥住房公积金促进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Government has issued the "Beijing Special Action Plan for Deepening Reform and Boosting Consumption," which includes 24 measures aimed at enhancing consumption quality and optimizing the consumption environment, with a target of achieving an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030 [1] Group 1: Housing Consumption Policies - The plan introduces a new policy allowing individuals to withdraw housing provident fund for down payments while simultaneously applying for housing loans, which is expected to lower the threshold for home purchases and alleviate financial pressure on buyers [2] - The proposed "mortgage transfer" policy aims to simplify the second-hand housing transaction process, reducing transaction time and costs, thereby increasing market liquidity [2][3] Group 2: Automotive Consumption Policies - The action plan emphasizes the need to optimize small car indicator allocation to better meet family vehicle needs and expand the automotive aftermarket, including modifications and rentals [4] - The current situation shows a significant competition for car purchase indicators, with a probability of winning for families at approximately 1% and for individuals at 0.1%, highlighting the need for policy reform [4] Group 3: Service Consumption Enhancement - The plan aims to leverage cultural resources to enhance service consumption, supporting new business models such as online performances and live auctions, which are expected to enrich entertainment consumption [5] - The initiative also focuses on developing health and domestic services, encouraging internet platforms to facilitate better supply-demand matching [5] Group 4: Income Growth Initiatives - The action plan outlines measures to promote reasonable growth in wage income, including adjustments to the minimum wage standards, which currently stand at 2420 yuan per month [6] - The plan also aims to broaden channels for property income and enhance financial services for the elderly, indicating a comprehensive approach to improving residents' financial well-being [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Beijing Action Plan for Deepening Reform and Boosting Consumption" aims to achieve an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, establishing 2 to 3 new consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion yuan, and enhancing Beijing's role as an international consumption center [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Employment - The action plan emphasizes promoting reasonable growth in wage income and implementing a priority employment strategy to ensure sustainable income growth for urban and rural residents [1] - It proposes to improve the minimum wage adjustment mechanism and broaden channels for property income, encouraging listed companies to increase dividend rates and asset management institutions to diversify investment products [1] Group 2: Consumption Upgrade and New Business Models - The plan outlines measures to enrich the silver economy, expand domestic service supply, cultivate health-oriented consumption, establish digital consumption benchmarks, and promote green consumption [2] - It highlights the development of "Internet + Healthcare," with 307 medical institutions providing internet diagnosis services by June 2025, and a 44.98% year-on-year increase in internet diagnosis visits [2] Group 3: Urban Development and Infrastructure - Beijing has completed 10 river and lake enhancement projects, adding 70 kilometers of slow-moving systems, and aims to open more public spaces along water bodies for recreational use [3] - The city plans to open over 450 million square meters of new large commercial facilities from 2022 to 2024, with 75 million square meters opened in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 4: Consumer Convenience and Regulatory Measures - The action plan supports residents in using housing provident fund withdrawals for down payments while applying for housing loans, reducing the financial burden of large purchases [4] - It aims to streamline regulatory processes, enhance consumer experience, and facilitate efficient business operations through integrated supervision and reduced project approval times [4]

Core Insights - The city’s public housing fund management center has implemented a series of policies aimed at enhancing the living conditions of residents through increased loan limits, improved efficiency, and reduced burdens [1][2][4] Group 1: Policy Implementation - As of the end of May, the total accumulated public housing fund contributions reached 850.7 billion, with 595.67 billion withdrawn, and a remaining balance of 255.03 billion [1] - A total of 457.06 billion in public housing loans has been issued to 193,600 households, with a loan balance of 162.25 billion, stimulating housing consumption by 22.56 million square meters [1] Group 2: Loan Limits and Interest Rates - The maximum public housing loan limits for individuals and families have been raised to 700,000 and 1 million respectively, with additional increments for families with multiple children [2] - Starting from May 8, the interest rates for first-time home loans have been reduced to 2.1% for loans of 5 years or less and 2.6% for loans over 5 years [2] - Existing public housing loan interest rates will automatically decrease starting January 1, 2026, benefiting all families with outstanding loans [2] Group 3: Service Enhancements - The introduction of a streamlined online service for public housing loans has significantly reduced processing times, with retirement-related services now taking approximately 10 minutes [3] - The "commercial to public" loan process has been optimized, with 416 cases processed since the upgrade, involving a total of 630,000 [3] Group 4: Accessibility and Convenience - The public housing fund center has expanded its service network to include six bank branches, enhancing accessibility for residents [4] - Integrated service points have been established in bank branches, allowing for comprehensive loan services, with 51 loan applications processed and 47 loans issued amounting to 18.91 million [4] - The "door-to-door" service initiative has reached 37 companies, assisting nearly 1,200 employees with policy information and support [5]

那么，哪些人可以办理贷款"商转公"？从广州的情况来看，它设定了相当明确的条件。这其中包括，申 请商转公贷款时，原商业贷款已放款5年以上，而且已获得原商业贷款银行同意转为纯公积金贷款；贷 款房屋是产权人家庭在广州市的唯一住房；原商业贷款在申请前24个月内没有逾期记录，以及在广州市 开户并累计缴存住房公积金满60个月及以上等。从现有的条件来看，广州的"商转公"政策还是存在一定 门槛，并不是所有有意愿"商转公"的群体都能够满足条件。 有专家分析，此前购房群体中，有相当一部分是通过纯商贷购房的，如2017年市场火热时，许多楼盘不 接受公积金贷款。如今，一些城市允许"商转公"，这部分人群就可以申请，而且公积金贷款利率要比商 业贷款利率低100-150个基点，这可是直接地为居民购房降成本、促消费。 不过需要注意的是，在申请"商转公"时，每个城市都设置了相应的条件和要求，已买房和准备买房的各 位，还得仔细看好所在城市的要求。如广州规定，当住房公积金个贷率低于75%时启动"商转公"，达到 85%及以上时采取管控措施，达到90%及以上时暂停。公积金个贷率是指个人住房贷款余额占住房公积 金缴存余额的比率，一般来说，公积金个贷率越 ...

同时，此次广州提出，"商转公"贷款额度不得超过购房总价款的60%，购房总价款以房屋原购买价格与 重新核查（重新评估）价中的较低者为准。这意味着，这一政策突破了约定俗成的70%贷款价值比（即 贷款额度/房屋价值一般为70%），本身就降低了可贷额度。另外，申请对象和条件中，广州此次新政 提出了多个条件。比如，原商业贷款已放款5年以上且已获得原商业贷款银行同意转为纯公积金贷款； 比如，原商业贷款在申请前24个月内没有逾期记录；比如，在广州市开户并累计缴存住房公积金满60个 月及以上等，这些条件有风险控制的要求，也有商业银行利润的诉求，但客观上可能也滤掉了一部分可 贷人群。 6月13日的国常会提出"更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"。在存量政策应出尽出的情况下，新的政策 必须着眼于住房消费痛点、大宗消费特性、交易成本敏感等，从激活整体消费的架构入手。基于此，近 期各地在公积金、老旧小区改造、好房子等政策上着力。 近期，低总价房源成交增加是共性。比如根据第三方数据，5月份上海、北京、深圳300万元总价的二手 房交易占比分别为50%、46%、44%。笔者认为，刚需越来越主导是住房夯实消费属性的体现，也是供 求关系重大变化的 ...

中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 "商转公"城市将进一步扩容。 为减轻缴存人住房贷款利息负担，促进社会消费，广州市住房公积金管理中心近日公布《广州商业性个 人住房贷款转住房公积金个人住房贷款实施办法（暂行）》（征求意见稿，以下简称"《办法》"）。同 在近日，海南省住房公积金管理局也拟增加个人住房贷款"商转公"业务模式。 "商转公"即将商业银行贷款利息转换为公积金利息。《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，目前已有超过30 个城市逐步推动"商转公"落地，各地对于住房公积金可贷款上限都有一定规定，对于银行机构影响或相 对有限。 广州、海南推动"商转公" 《办法》显示，从额度调整上看，广州"商转公"贷款额度按申请时广州市公积金贷款政策核定，不得高 于商转公贷款申请时原商业贷款余额与未来3个月应还本金的差额，且不得超过购房总价款的60%。购 房总价款以房屋原购买价格与房屋重新核查（重新评估）价中的较低者为准。 在条件限制方面，申请"商转公"贷款时，原商业贷款已放款5年以上且已获得原商业贷款银行同意转为 纯公积金贷款。申请"商转公"贷款时，贷款房屋是产权人家庭在广州市的唯一住房，是纯商贷的自住 房，借款人"在全国范围内未使用过住房公 ...