新华财经北京1月9日电 2025年11月德国经济呈现"内强外弱"的显著分化：工业产出环比增长0.8%，大 幅超出市场预期的下降0.4%；但同期出口额意外环比下降2.5%，降至1281亿欧元，创13个月新低，亦 低于持平的普遍预期。 工业产出由汽车业强力驱动 11月工业产出的超预期表现主要得益于制造业关键部门的强劲反弹。其中，汽车行业产出环比激增 7.8%，成为最大贡献者。机械工程产出增长3.2%，机器维护与装配产出更大幅上升10.5%。若剔除波动 较大的能源部门（当月能源生产下降7.8%），整体工业产出环比增幅达2.1%。其中，资本货物生产增 长4.9%，显示投资相关需求保持韧性。不过，中间产品生产下降0.8%，消费品生产微降0.3%，反映部 分产业链仍承压。 此前10月工业产出数据亦被上修，由初值增长1.8%上调至2.0%，进一步印证工业活动的持续动能。 出口全面承压，欧美市场同步走弱 与工业产出形成鲜明对比的是，德国出口在11月显著回落。经季节调整后，出口额环比下降2.5%，进 口则增长0.8%，导致贸易盈余收窄至131亿欧元，低于预期的165亿欧元及前值169亿欧元。 具体来看，德国对最大出口目的地美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee have added uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy direction, emphasizing the need for more time and data to accurately assess inflation and economic trends [1][4]. Economic Data Analysis - The April CPI data shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, the smallest in four years, but this is significantly influenced by a 1.2% month-over-month decline in food prices, indicating that short-term fluctuations may not be sustainable [3][5]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remains at a year-over-year growth rate of 2.8%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [3][5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates since December, with policymakers' cautious stance closely linked to the Trump administration's tariff policies [4][6]. - Despite the April inflation data, the Fed's logic for maintaining a wait-and-see approach remains intact due to core inflation consistently exceeding the 2% target and the potential lagging effects of tariff policies on prices [4][5]. Tariff Impact and Market Expectations - The recent increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, affecting approximately $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, could lead to higher consumer prices and force companies to adjust pricing strategies, with economists expecting these effects to manifest in the coming months [5][6]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of a cut this year decreasing from 70% to 55%, reflecting a reassessment of tariff risks [5][6]. Divergence within the Federal Reserve - There is a growing divide within the Fed, with some members advocating for patience to fully understand the impact of tariffs, while others express concern over slowing economic growth and favor preemptive rate cuts [6]. - The upcoming economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and retail sales, are likely to intensify this divergence ahead of the June FOMC meeting [6].