Group 1 - The "Great Beauty" Act, signed by Trump on July 4, 2023, will lead to further fiscal easing in the U.S., providing short-term support for economic growth but potentially causing secondary inflation risks and delaying Fed rate cuts, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability [1][10][12] - The final version of the "Great Beauty" Act has a larger deficit compared to the House version, with changes including the removal of Clause 899, an increase in the federal debt ceiling, and tightened conditions for Medicaid eligibility [1][10] - The Act is expected to have significant long-term effects across various industries, providing tax and subsidy advantages to traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors while cutting benefits for clean energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and food sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The Act will allow for the resumption of oil and gas leasing auctions on public lands and waters, and it maintains policies for real estate companies to fully deduct property improvement costs [11] - A budget of approximately $150 billion will be allocated over the next five years for large military projects, including shipbuilding and missile defense systems [11] - The semiconductor industry will see an increase in tax credits from 25% to 35% for new factories built in the U.S., with projects needing to commence by the end of 2026 [11] Group 3 - The "Great Beauty" Act represents a significant expansion of U.S. fiscal policy, which may require rate cuts to support this expansion amid high deficits and debt concerns [12][15] - The current fiscal expansion differs from previous cycles due to unexpected fiscal growth, changes in economic fundamentals, tariff uncertainties, and cracks in dollar credit [12][15] - The narrative around major asset classes is expected to fluctuate between "economic weakness," "data resilience," and "fiscal risk," impacting pricing for U.S. Treasuries, equities, the dollar, gold, and oil [15]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider lowering interest rates if the economy weakens and inflation decreases [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Stournaras indicated that a potential rate cut is on the table if economic conditions deteriorate [1] - The statement reflects the ECB's responsiveness to changing economic indicators, particularly in relation to inflation trends [1] - The possibility of a rate cut suggests a shift in monetary policy strategy to support economic growth [1]

金十数据5月8日讯，瑞典商业银行的Magnus Lindskog写道，由于贸易战威胁到经济复苏，瑞典央行暗 示未来可能会降息。尽管瑞典央行仍强调不确定性，但其评估是，提高关税将导致欧洲需求下降，这可 能会给通胀带来下行压力。该行预计，5月份不断恶化的情绪将继续表明瑞典经济走弱，促使瑞典央行 放松政策，尽管通胀仍高于目标。"我们预计，经济走弱将导致今年三次降息。" 市场分析：经济走弱将导致瑞典央行今年三次降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach suggests that as the economy weakens, long-term interest rates may rise [1] Group 1 - Gundlach indicates that the current economic conditions are leading to a potential increase in long-term interest rates despite a weakening economy [1] - He emphasizes that the bond market is reacting to economic signals, which could lead to higher yields in the long run [1] - The analysis points to a disconnect between short-term economic indicators and long-term interest rate trends [1]

加拿大央行会议纪要：支持降息的成员提到近期通胀风险较为平淡，以及经济正在走弱的迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current focus of fund managers is shifting towards policies rather than rhetoric, indicating a negative outlook on existing policies [1] Group 1 - Economic weakness is deemed more significant than any statements made by Scott Bessenet or Trump [1]