Group 1 - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, with the previous value also at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, above the expected 3.7%, while the month-over-month growth was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs, with outpatient services contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 jobs [3] - The restaurant and drinking places sector also saw significant hiring, adding 37,000 jobs [3] - Federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a reduction of 97,000 jobs since January [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 6,000 jobs in September, continuing a concerning trend [3] - Analysts express concerns over the slowdown in wage growth, which may lead to a deceleration in overall labor income [3] - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause any rate cuts in December, despite increased bets on potential cuts [4]

美国财长贝森特：特朗普还没有对加拿大征收10%的关税。（谈及经济衰退）我们正处于转型期。如果 通胀下降，美联储应该降息。有些经济部门在衰退。如果美联储降低抵押贷款利率，它可以结束房地产 衰退。 ...

Core Insights - Chile is projected to have the highest growth rate in real income among OECD countries in the first quarter of 2025, with a growth rate of 3.1%, significantly above the OECD average of 0.1% [1] Economic Performance - The notable increase in real income is attributed to a 0.5% growth in per capita GDP and a continuous decline in inflation [1] - In the fourth quarter of 2024, Chile experienced a decline of 2.27% in real income per capita [1] Wage and Labor Market Trends - The Chilean National Statistics Institute (INE) reports that the real wage index has seen continuous growth for 28 months, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in June [1] - Cumulative growth for 2025 in real wages stands at 1.6%, while nominal wage index and labor cost index have increased by 7.5% and 7.8% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly emphasizes that the key issue is the future trajectory of interest rates, which are expected to decrease as inflation declines [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation trends to inform future interest rate adjustments [1] - Interest rates are anticipated to be lowered in response to decreasing inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that the decline in commodity prices, reduced market volatility, and improved inflation expectations will contribute to a decrease in inflation in the second half of the year [1] Group 1 - The decrease in commodity prices is expected to have a positive impact on inflation rates [1] - Market volatility has diminished, which may lead to a more stable economic environment [1] - Improved inflation expectations indicate a potential recovery in consumer confidence and spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will maintain a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved through sustained inflation decline [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of controlling inflation to ensure economic stability [1] - The commitment to a tight monetary policy indicates a proactive approach to managing economic challenges [1] - The focus on sustained inflation decline suggests a long-term strategy rather than short-term fixes [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Turkey indicates that the fundamental trend of inflation has decreased in May, suggesting a positive outlook for inflation rates [1] - Leading indicators point to a continued decline in inflation for June, reinforcing the central bank's assessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governor Schlegel stated that the reason for the interest rate cut is the decline in inflation [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower interest rates is primarily influenced by the observed decrease in inflation levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts will occur when there is confidence that inflation is decreasing [1] Group 1 - Powell's statement reflects the Fed's cautious approach towards monetary policy adjustments, emphasizing the importance of inflation trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that interest rate cuts will only begin when there is confidence that inflation is decreasing [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding inflation, particularly due to tariff policies, indicating that confidence in declining inflation is necessary before any rate cuts can be considered [1] - He noted that the burden of tariffs will ultimately fall on consumers, highlighting the interconnectedness of manufacturers, exporters, retailers, and consumers in the economic landscape [1] Group 2: Service Sector Inflation - Powell mentioned that without tariffs, inflation in the service sector would likely decrease significantly, but the Federal Reserve requires more information regarding the impact of tariffs before making decisions [1]