2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：供应减产，价格偏强 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：基本面有韧性 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡横盘震荡 | 13 | | 钯：横盘整理 | 13 | | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 5 日 黄金：降息预期回升 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 白银：震荡回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金 ...

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：供应减产，价格偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：基本面有韧性 | 12 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：交投清淡横盘震荡 | 14 | | 钯：横盘整理 | 14 | | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 16 | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库边际放缓，上方或承压 | 18 | | 工业硅：偏弱运行 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission is advancing a comprehensive plan to break down national barriers in the financial services sector, aiming to create a unified capital market that can compete with the United States, thereby revitalizing the struggling EU economy [1] Group 1: Regulatory Integration - The plan proposes a series of technical measures focused on regulatory integration, granting greater powers to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) [2] - It suggests simplifying cross-border operations through enhanced "passport" systems for regulated markets and central securities depositories, and allowing pan-European trading venues to consolidate their structures and licenses into a single entity [2] - The proposal aims to transfer regulatory authority over key market infrastructures, such as trading venues and central counterparties, to ESMA, highlighting the disparity in the number of central counterparties and securities depositories between the EU and the US [2] Group 2: Mobilizing Private Savings - A core objective of the plan is to unlock and reallocate the substantial private savings within the EU, as European households hold a significant portion of their assets in cash and deposits compared to their US counterparts [3] - It is reported that EU households possess up to €33 trillion in private savings, with approximately €300 billion flowing overseas annually, primarily to the US [3] - Policymakers believe that the fragmentation of the European financial market contributes to a cautious investment attitude among investors, leading innovative companies to seek funding and expansion opportunities in the US [3] Group 3: Economic Fragmentation - The fragmentation of the financial services market has been identified as a key factor undermining the EU's economic competitiveness, with the market capitalization of EU stock exchanges projected to be only 73% of its annual economic output in 2024, compared to 270% in the US [5] - Former ECB President Mario Draghi emphasized the need for a larger common savings pool and optimized investments to enhance productivity and growth in his report on improving European competitiveness [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has also stated that Europe must break internal barriers to move away from an outdated export-driven growth model [5]