一、原油价格低是在剥削产油国吗？ 假期里，照旧写一些离股市比较远的话题，今天聊聊价格内卷，很多国家都出现过部分产业或者全部产 业的产能过剩，本文用三个例子，油、水与奶，看看他们当初是怎么"卷价格"，又是怎么"反内卷"的。 第一个案例是70年代以前的原油。 石油危机之前，国际市场的原油非常便宜，1970年美国平均零售油价，每加仑汽油约36美分，按通胀折 算到今天，大约等于每加仑2.5美元左右，也就是说，美国人在石油危机前加油的实际生活负担，大概 只是今天的一半甚至更低。 1970年的大排量汽车非常畅销，因为油价太便宜了，到了1973年石油危机爆发后，油价仅仅涨了一倍， 就直接改写了美国人的购车习惯，从"肌肉车"转向小型车，再也没有改回来过，由此可以看出，高油价 对美国人生活的永久改变，或者换句话说，之前油价低得不合理。 1970年以前的低油价是如何形成的呢？ 石油最初只是用于照明，最典型的产品是煤油，是电灯出现前最主要的燃料。人类正式进入石油时代是 从1967年开始，石油在一次能源消费结构中首次超过煤炭。 更重要的是，原油下游还诞生了一个庞大的石油化工行业，下游产品从汽油柴油到各种塑料、建材、农 药化肥、纺织品 ...

Group 1 - The integration development of the Yangtze River Delta is a major national strategy personally planned, deployed, and promoted by General Secretary Xi Jinping, with significant implications for China's modernization and high-quality development [1][4] - The Yangtze River Delta region, comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, is advancing towards a higher level of integration, enhancing innovation capabilities and industrial competitiveness [1][4] Group 2 - In the first seven months of this year, China's trade volume with other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reached approximately $2931.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [2][8] - The rural online retail sales in China increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first seven months, indicating a sustained vitality in rural consumption [3][9] Group 3 - The national emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention has been activated in Hainan due to the approach of Typhoon "Jianyu," which is expected to reach maximum intensity [13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated a nationwide survey of industrial cultural resources to support the protection and development of industrial heritage [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the Online Travel Agency (OTA) industry, focusing on competition among major players like JD.com, Meituan, Ctrip, and ByteDance [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **JD.com's Strategy**: JD.com is expanding into local life services, including food delivery and flash purchase, to compete with Meituan. The company aims to enhance profit margins through its travel and accommodation services, initially using price subsidies to penetrate the market [1][3][20]. - **ByteDance's Limitations**: ByteDance's travel business is constrained by its content e-commerce model, which does not meet the demand for large-scale transportation services. Its accommodation booking lacks competitive pricing and availability [1][4]. - **Meituan's Market Position**: Meituan dominates the mid-to-low-end hotel market and collaborates with Marriott to attract younger consumers. However, its user spending power limits its ability to penetrate the high-end market [1][8]. - **Ctrip's Competitive Edge**: Ctrip has a mature brand presence, strong user loyalty, and high average transaction values. Its supply chain management and self-operated business efficiency are key competitive advantages [1][23]. - **Market Dynamics**: The OTA market share is stable, with price-sensitive users often comparing multiple platforms. Short-term subsidies may prompt competitive responses, but long-term subsidy levels are expected to stabilize [1][9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Exclusivity**: Certain hotels may only be available on specific platforms, leading to exclusivity in supply chains. Ctrip negotiates directly with key hotels, which can limit their availability on other platforms [23]. - **Government Policies**: Government initiatives to stimulate summer consumption are expected to remain consistent with previous years, potentially using consumption vouchers to boost hotel and scenic area spending [11]. - **User Behavior Trends**: International tourists tend to book through mainstream foreign platforms, which may have distinct advantages over local options [12]. - **Future Growth of Same-City Travel**: Same-city travel services are expected to grow significantly, particularly in vacation and outbound travel segments [16][27]. - **Competition Between Platforms**: The competition between Same-City Travel and Meituan is ongoing, with both platforms focusing on maintaining market share through pricing strategies and user benefits [27]. Conclusion The OTA industry is characterized by intense competition, with each player leveraging unique strengths and strategies. JD.com is positioning itself to compete aggressively with Meituan, while Ctrip maintains a stronghold in the high-end market. The overall market dynamics suggest a stabilization of subsidy strategies, with long-term implications for profitability across platforms.