2025 年 07 月 16 日 政策点评 在学习总书记讲话的基础之上，本篇报告试图回答以下核心问题： 什么是中国好城市？中国城市建设发展理念经历了怎样的变迁？如 何建设中国好城市？ 投资要点: [Table_Title] 城市如何让生活更美好 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《2025 年房地产展望*夏磊》——2024-12-22 事件 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行（以下简称"本次 会议"）。习近平总书记作重要讲话，总结新时代以来我国城市发展 成就，分析城市工作面临的形势，明确做好城市工作的总体要求、 重要原则、重点任务。 2024 年，我国城镇人口数量 9.4 亿人，常住人口城镇化率达 67%。 我们认为，当前我国城市发展迈入新阶段，从大规模增量扩张转向 存量提质增效为主。在人民城市理念下，建设中国好城市，满足人 民对美好生活的向往。 什么是中国好城市 在当前中国城市化进程深入推进的背景下，如何定义和建设"中国 好城市"，成为关乎国家城镇化质量与人民福祉的重要议题。党的二 十大报告提出，"坚持 ...

Core Insights - The forum focused on the "Beautiful China" initiative, discussing goals, indicator systems, governance paths, and technological support [1][3] Group 1: Forum Overview - The 27th China Association for Science and Technology Annual Conference hosted a forum on "Beautiful China Construction" with over 60 experts in attendance [1] - The forum featured 18 reports from renowned experts and young scholars [1] Group 2: Key Presentations - Yang Linsheng from the Chinese Academy of Sciences presented the "Beautiful China Construction Intelligent Simulation System" based on research outcomes [3] - Lei Yalin from China University of Geosciences proposed three digital governance models for "Beautiful China," emphasizing regional collaboration and data sharing [3] - Zhou Hongchun from the State Council Development Research Center reflected on the philosophical and cultural dimensions of "Beautiful China," advocating for a balanced approach to development and ecology [3] Group 3: Collaborative Paths and Mechanisms - Fang Chuanglin summarized the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for "Beautiful China" and proposed six collaborative paths for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Li Hongwei from the Central Party School emphasized the need for a sound ecological product value realization mechanism to support "Beautiful China" [3] - Yang Xiaoming from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment discussed the need for modern governance capabilities to address systemic challenges [3] Group 4: Regional Development and Case Studies - Sun Fubao proposed a dual-driven path of "ecological security + new energy" for Inner Mongolia [3] - Ge Yong from Jiangxi Normal University summarized 20 years of experience in "poverty reduction-ecology-carbon reduction" collaborative development [3] - Wu Kang analyzed the challenges of green transformation in shrinking resource cities using Shanxi Province as a case study [4] Group 5: Future Directions and Challenges - Zhang Jingyong presented new insights on climate change and extreme heat predictions for 2025, highlighting disaster risk areas [5] - The forum discussed key issues such as regional development imbalance and the lack of ecological compensation mechanisms [5]

美股第二季度财报季正式启动，市场预期显著降温，投资者面临盈利增速大幅放缓与关税不确定性的双重挑战。 根据FactSet 7月3日发布的数据，分析师预计标准普尔500指数成分股公司第二季度盈利将增长5%——这将是自2023年第四季度以来利润增长最慢的一 次。 尽管第二季度关税相关不确定性达到顶峰，但市场近期反弹表明企业未来几周公布的业绩可能被低估。美银建议投资者重点关注四大主题：资本支出指 引、裁员情况、外汇影响以及《大美丽法案》的影响。 关税冲击，盈利预期大幅下调 根据FactSet 7月3日发布的数据，分析师预计标准普尔500指数成分股公司第二季度盈利将增长5%——这将是自2023年第四季度以来利润增长最慢的一 次，较第一季度13%的强劲增长大幅回落。11个行业中，6个行业预计实现同比增长，通信服务和信息技术行业领涨。5个行业预计出现同比下降，能源行 业跌幅最大。 据追风交易台消息，美银分析师在7月13日的报告中表示，自4月以来，受关税政策公布及经济数据意外走弱影响，分析师下调预期的幅度超过往常。过去 三个月，分析师对第二季度预期的下调幅度达到4%，高于通常季度3%的历史平均水平。 但早期发布财报的公司开局 ...

"大美丽"法案、美元流动性与反内卷 20250714 摘要 财政扩张短期提振美股，但长期可能推高国债收益率，对美债构成压力。 美元走弱或增强新兴市场吸引力，利好港股等资产，但需综合考虑其他 宏观因素和政策变化。 市场对关税政策逐渐脱敏，认为其主要目的在于增加财政收入，预计不 会大幅提高。历史数据显示，对等关税实施后，中国市场和港股表现相 对较弱，未来关税政策变化仍需密切关注。 去美元化趋势存在不确定性，美元走弱不必然导致美股疲软。美国经济 下半年有望环比改善，而中国面临高基数挑战，这种边际变化将影响汇 率和资产价格走势。 游戏板块与人形机器人领域值得关注。游戏板块有望借助 AI 技术实现增 长，人形机器人代表未来科技方向，具备较大潜力，是寻找结构性机会 的重要方向。 光伏行业面临供需失衡，产能过剩严重，产业链价格大幅下跌。政府干 预和行业协会自律行动效果有限，需进一步强化反内卷力度，硅料环节 或为反内卷的突破口。 Q&A 大美丽法案对美国经济、美股市场和美债的影响是什么？是否会通过影响美元 流动性进而影响港股的流动性和外围资金流向？ 大美丽法案对美国经济、美股市场和美债都有显著影响。首先，该法案可能会 增加政 ...

习近平生态文明思想是新时代生态文明建设的根本遵循和行动指南。学习好习近平生态文明思想，探究 认知习近平生态文明思想的内涵外延，对于进一步做好习近平生态文明思想社会宣传有很大帮助。笔者 结合对《习近平生态文明思想学习纲要》的学习，从习近平生态文明思想的理论来源、形成发展、体系 蕴涵、实践意义四个维度谈谈学习体会。 可见，马克思主义生态理论、自然观、生态观，尤其是人与自然辩证关系的思想，是习近平生态文明思 想的来源之一。相关思想集中体现在恩格斯《自然辩证法》中。 中华优秀传统生态文化如"天人合一""道法自然"等，是习近平生态文明思想另一个重要理论来源和基 础。习近平生态文明思想根植于中华优秀传统生态文化，推动中华优秀传统生态文化创造性转化和创新 性发展。 《习近平生态文明思想学习纲要》提到，"（习近平生态文明思想）是人类社会实现可持续发展的共同 思想财富"。国内外环境科学发展及其研究成果也应看作是习近平生态文明思想的理论来源之一。 习近平生态文明思想还有一个重要来源是我国生态文明建设的伟大实践，实践出真知。特别是新时代以 来，我国以年均3%的能源消耗增速支撑了年均6%的经济增长，成为全球能耗强度降低最快的国家之 ...

01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普《大美丽法案》的内容及影响 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2025年7月4日，特朗普正式签署《大美丽法案》[1]，基本兑现了其竞选期间提出的核心减税承 诺。该法案分为五大部分，涵盖企业减税、个人与家庭减税、削减清洁能源补贴、压缩医疗补助 （Medicaid）以及削减补充营养援助计划（SNAP）。整体来看，《大美丽法案》将在未来推升 财政赤字，但部分赤字可通过关税收入予以对冲。我们测算显示，法案对2026年实际GDP的拉动 在0.5个百分点以内，对通胀的推升作用不超过0.15个百分点；未来十年，关税+减税的组合将增 加净赤字约1.3万亿美元，赤字率将维持在6%左右。鉴于当前失业率低、通胀温和、私人部门资 产负债表健康，美国政府债务尚无迫切风险。中期来看，财政的约束将更多取决于通胀过高与财 政效率下降，但目前这两种情形尚未出现。在通胀可控的前提下，美国财政的空间可能比过去40 年来主流经济学所想的要更大。 2025.07.07 | 肖捷文 苏思雨等 02 策略 Strategy "大美丽"法案后的美债、美股与流 ...

Core Insights - The project in Azha Town, Jiali County, Nagqu City, has transformed the village into a modern ecological and livable rural area with a total investment of 143 million yuan [1][7] - The project addresses previous issues such as poor housing design and infrastructure, with a focus on improving living conditions and promoting local economic development [1][6] Investment and Funding - The project was funded through a combination of 43 million yuan from rural revitalization funds, 90.39 million yuan from the "14th Five-Year" aid to Tibet, and 9.66 million yuan from community contributions [1] - An additional investment of 13.36 million yuan was allocated for cultural activity areas to enhance community cultural life [4] Project Features - The project includes seven functional areas: waterfront cultural tourism area, kindergarten area, modern residential area, public activity area, concentrated high-altitude livestock area, cultural performance area, and industrial park [3] - Infrastructure improvements include water supply systems, hardened roads, streetlights, and parking lots [4] Community Impact - The project emphasizes scientific planning and community participation, ensuring modern living needs are met while preserving ethnic characteristics [6] - The successful implementation of the project serves as a replicable model for rural development in the Tibetan Plateau, promoting a modern rural pattern characterized by ecological livability and effective governance [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump, particularly focusing on tariffs and their implications for various industries, including toys and imports from countries like Brazil and Canada. Core Points and Arguments - **Imposition of Tariffs**: Trump announced plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, dismissing concerns about negative impacts on the stock market or inflation [4][5][6] - **Current Tariff Rates**: The existing blanket tariff rate is set at 10% [5] - **Stock Market Reaction**: Trump claimed that the tariffs have been well-received, citing a record high for the S&P 500 index on the same day [5][6] - **Inflation Concerns**: Trump refuted warnings from Hasbro's CEO regarding potential price increases for toys due to tariffs, stating that inflation has decreased [7][8] - **Trade Agreements**: The administration has stalled on trade agreements, despite previous promises of numerous deals. Recent letters to 22 countries have established new tariff rates, including a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil [9][11] - **European Union and Canada**: The EU and Canada are set to receive notifications about new tariff rates, with the EU being a significant trading partner for the U.S. [13][14] - **Retaliatory Tariffs**: The EU has prepared over $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs that can be quickly implemented [16] - **Sanctions on Russia**: Trump discussed potential sanctions against Russia, indicating that the Senate is expected to pass a sanctions measure that would allow him discretion in its implementation [22][23][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Domestic Policy Package**: Trump mentioned a massive domestic policy package called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which extends previous tax cuts and includes significant spending for border security and military, while cutting Medicaid and other programs [25][27][28] - **Political Implications**: Democrats are leveraging the GOP's support for the bill in upcoming elections, framing it as a betrayal of constituents [29][30] - **Weapon Shipments to NATO**: Trump revealed a new deal for the U.S. to send weapons to NATO, which will then supply them to Ukraine, with NATO covering the costs [17][18][19][20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of Trump's trade policies and domestic initiatives on various sectors and the political landscape.

美丽大法案落地：经济与财政影响 20250709 综合所有条款内容，预计未来十年总赤字扩张约 3.25 万亿美元。此外，为应 对今年（2025 年）联邦政府债务触及法定上限问题，将债务上限从 36 万亿提 高到 41 万亿，以维持政府现金流。 为了覆盖减税带来的债务成本，相应地在 其他部门进行了支出削减，包括医疗补助补贴、奥巴马医改内容、农业部门食 品券福利，以及学生贷款和助学金政策紧缩。清洁能源相关资金授权也被取消， 总体来看这些措施将在未来几年逐步扩大支出削减力度。 对于经济影响，根据 智库及官方机构测算，本轮效果弱于 2017 年的全面下调个人所得税与企业所 得税。本次主要以延长条款为主，对居民体感影响较小。中性预测显示未来十 年 GDP 平均增长 0.5 个百分点，即每年增长 0.05 个百分点左右。Tax Foundation 测算结果偏乐观，因为该机构专注于研究不考虑大规模财政扩张 负面冲击。 2. 企业所得税：2017 年已将企业所得税率从 35%降至 21%，此次未进一 步调降，而是升级了会计准则，如研发费用投资费用化、厂房投资费用 化等，预计未来十年对赤字影响约 1 万亿美元。 3. 惩罚性 ...

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the Forest Law in Heilongjiang province to support ecological civilization and sustainable development [1][2] - The inspection team, led by Li Hongzhong, conducted on-site checks in various locations to assess the implementation of forest protection and development initiatives [1] - The article highlights the integration of ecological protection and economic development, focusing on the dual goals of forest conservation and the development of the under-forest economy [1][2] Group 1 - The inspection team reviewed the implementation of the Forest Law and its impact on ecological safety and high-quality forestry development [2] - Li Hongzhong stressed the need for a comprehensive approach to environmental protection, including the integration of various natural resources [2] - The article mentions the importance of increasing forest area and quality as part of the broader goal of achieving harmonious coexistence between humans and nature [2] Group 2 - The article outlines the necessity of strengthening local responsibilities for forest protection and enhancing the rights of forest farmers [2] - It calls for the use of legal frameworks to promote high-quality forestry development and modernize the forestry sector [2] - The article advocates for a collaborative approach involving legislation, enforcement, and public education to ensure effective forest protection [2]