美债10年期收益率
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张尧浠:地缘局势升温降息押注回暖、金价走强保持看涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 00:05
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets set at $3435 and $3500, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On June 12, gold opened at $3356.10 per ounce, reached a high of $3398.86, and closed at $3386.58, marking a daily increase of $30.48 or 0.91% [1]. - The daily trading range was $60.28, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell, supporting gold prices, as both employment and inflation data showed signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3][7]. - The market anticipates a nearly 60% probability of a rate cut in September, despite strong non-farm payroll data that reduced immediate cut expectations [5][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are fueling market risk aversion, which benefits gold prices [8]. - Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for a 200 basis point rate cut have further strengthened the outlook for gold [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by the 5-month moving average, despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded from key support levels, with expectations to reach the upper Bollinger Band at $3500 [11]. - The daily chart reflects a bullish outlook, with gold stabilizing above the 5-10 day moving averages and aiming for targets of $3435 and $3500 [13]. Investment Strategy - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at support levels around $3371 or $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3400 or $3435 [13].
张尧浠:基本面多空因素拉锯、金价震荡仍具看涨预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 00:32
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook despite fluctuations, with potential support levels identified for future buying opportunities [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On June 9, gold opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and closed at $3325.39, marking a daily increase of $13.62 or 0.41% [1]. - The daily trading range was $44.23, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to internal conflicts and geopolitical risks, which has contributed to a rebound in gold prices [3][8]. - The market is currently cautious, with a lack of clear driving factors, and gold's performance is expected to be volatile until it breaks through short-term moving averages [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that while bullish momentum has weakened, key support levels are still intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities on dips [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold has not broken below key support levels, indicating that any pullbacks could present buying opportunities [14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with expectations of rising inflation potentially benefiting gold prices [5][8]. - The overall economic environment, including rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset [8].
张尧浠:中东局势加关税持续、金价震荡调整待再攀升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 00:35
Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a rebound after hitting a low, indicating that bearish pressure is being consumed, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend [1][4][8]. Price Movement - On April 28, gold opened at $3324.92 per ounce, reached a high of $3352.81, and closed at $3343.98, marking a daily increase of $19.06 or 0.57% [1]. - Compared to the previous Friday's closing price of $3314.08, gold rose by $29.9, reflecting a 0.9% increase [2]. Market Influences - The decline of the US dollar index below the 99 mark and the drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield have provided support for gold prices [4]. - Ongoing trade concerns due to Trump's statements on tariffs and rising geopolitical risks have further propelled gold prices upward [4][8]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have experienced significant volatility but remain above a key upward trend line, suggesting potential for further gains [10]. - Weekly charts show a long upper shadow indicating potential for a pullback, but the overall trend remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 5-week moving average [11]. - Daily charts confirm that gold has rebounded from recent lows, with support levels strengthening, indicating a favorable outlook for future price increases [13]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates continued bullish momentum for gold, with expectations of testing the $3500 mark again [8][10]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, may influence market sentiment and gold prices [6].
金荣中国:黄金保持震荡回调发展
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 11:12
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a weak trend due to recent pullbacks and selling pressure, compounded by a strengthening US dollar index which has reduced bullish factors for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has recently rebounded, indicating a potential strong upward trend, which may exert pressure on gold prices [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has shown a strong bullish trend supported by the 200-day moving average, which could also negatively impact gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, although uncertainty remains due to mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have encountered resistance in the $3050-$3060 range and are currently trading below the 5-day moving average, indicating a strengthening bearish sentiment [4]. - There is a potential for a rebound as gold tests the 10-day moving average support, but further declines are expected until prices stabilize above the 5-day moving average [4].