编导：畅舒婷 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:邱丽芳】 ...

（原标题：国际货币基金组织上调全球经济增长预期） 丹麦《商报》7月29日报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）上调了今年全球经 济增长预期。4月，IMF预测今年全球经济增长率为2.8%，而现在该预测值已 增长至3.0%。但与此同时，IMF警告称，全球关税上升、地缘政治紧张局势加 剧以及金融环境收紧，都可能威胁世界经济。 国际货币基金组织目前预测2026年世界经济增长率为3.1%，而4月份的预 测为3.0%。然而，2025年和2026年的预期增长率仍低于2024年的全球增长率 3.3%，也远低于2000年至2019年的历史平均水平3.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for the next two years, indicating a fragile global economy influenced by factors such as U.S. trade policies [1] - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast [1] - The upward revision is attributed to importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff increases, leading to distortions in global economic activity [1] Group 2 - The growth forecast for emerging markets and developing economies has been raised by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points for the next two years, now expected to be 4.1% and 4% respectively [1] - Developed economies also see an upward adjustment in growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points for the next two years, now projected at 1.5% and 1.6% [1] - Economic policy uncertainty continues to pose a threat to global economic stability in the coming years [1]

Group 1 - OPEC maintains its global economic growth forecast for 2026 at 3.1% [1]

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 2.2%, and next year's forecast from 2% to 2.2%, although these figures remain below last year's growth of 2.9% and the long-term average of 2.7% [1][3] - The adjustment is primarily due to the recent improvement in the international trade environment, with reduced tariff disputes between the US and major trading partners alleviating recession concerns [3][5] - The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone has been slightly upgraded to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 0.6%, but remains constrained by energy price volatility and weak manufacturing [5][6] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast for 2022 has been raised from 1.2% to 1.5%, indicating short-term economic resilience, although domestic demand may slow in the latter half of the year [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding global trade remains, with the effective tariff rate in the US currently at 14.2%, potentially rising to nearly 18%, which could exert pressure on global supply chains and inflation [5][6] - Fitch warns that despite short-term improvements, the global economy faces the most severe trade risks since the 1930s, with tariff policy uncertainty continuing to suppress business investment and consumer confidence [6]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting the gold market and international exchange rates, with next week's trends being highly uncertain [1] Group 1: Impact on Gold Market - Geopolitical conflicts are major drivers of gold price fluctuations, with gold being regarded as the "king of safe-haven assets" [3] - Historical instances, such as the post-9/11 period and the U.S.-Iran conflict in early 2020, show that gold prices can surge significantly during crises, with increases exceeding 20% in some cases [3] - If the U.S. bombs Iran, a strong upward trend in gold prices is likely due to heightened war risks and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - War typically raises inflation expectations, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, leading to increased investment in gold [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by the U.S. dollar exchange rate, global economic growth expectations, and central bank monetary policies [4] - A strong dollar usually suppresses gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; however, military actions may initially boost the dollar due to safe-haven flows, creating short-term pressure on gold [4] - Long-term economic uncertainty and inflation pressures from military actions could weaken the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a potential return of funds to the gold market [4] Group 3: Impact on International Exchange Rates - The U.S. bombing of Iran is expected to create significant turbulence in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar likely experiencing a temporary surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Historical trends, such as during the Gulf War, indicate that the dollar index may rise during crises, but prolonged military spending and economic uncertainty could negatively impact the dollar's long-term stability [5] - The euro may face pressure due to potential disruptions in trade with the Middle East, while the yen could attract safe-haven flows but may be limited by rising import costs from increased oil prices [6] - Emerging market currencies are likely to face greater pressure, with potential capital outflows leading to currency depreciation and stock market declines [6]

新华社北京6月19日电 题：美关税政策拉低全球经济预期 新华社记者闫亮 世界银行日前将2025年全球经济增长预期从今年1月份的2.7%下调至2.3%，同时下调近70%经济体 的增速预期，成为又一家看空全球经济增长前景的主流国际机构。 今年以来，多家国际机构下调乃至多次下调全球经济增长预期，普遍将美国贸易政策不确定性列为 重要原因。经济学家认为，美国政府一系列单边关税政策冲击全球经贸秩序，为全球市场带来巨大不确 定性，加剧全球经济风险。 下调增速成普遍预期 世界银行在6月10日发布的最新一期《全球经济展望》报告中预计，今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低0.5个百分点，其中美国经济增速预期从此前的2.3%大幅下调至1.4%。同时，今年 新兴市场和发展中经济体预计增长3.8%，比此前预测低0.3个百分点。 谈及此次下调时，世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔表示，这将是"17年来除全球 经济衰退以外的最差表现"。 美国哈佛大学美国政治研究中心—哈里斯民调机构日前发布的一项民调结果显示，大多数选民认 为，关税政策是美国新一届政府"最大的失败"。世界银行副首席经济学家艾汉·柯塞说，美国关税带来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, indicating a cyclical decline post-2021, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [5][6][10]. Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [6]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also reduced its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [7]. - The World Bank has adjusted its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions [9]. - Fitch Ratings has downgraded its outlook for global sovereign debt ratings from "neutral" to "deteriorating," citing escalating global trade tensions as a key driver [10]. Commodity Demand Insights - For copper, the global consumption growth rate is projected to vary significantly based on different economic forecasts, with a potential range of 0.6% to 2.5% for 2025, indicating a divergence of 1.3% which corresponds to 350,000 tons of metal [14][15]. - The regression analysis shows that global copper consumption growth is closely tied to global economic growth, with a coefficient indicating that a 1% increase in economic growth leads to a 1.38% increase in copper consumption [13]. Oil Demand Insights - The global oil consumption growth rate is expected to range from -0.6% to 1.2% based on various forecasts, with a divergence of 0.8% translating to approximately 830,000 barrels per day [17][21]. - The regression analysis indicates that global oil consumption growth is also linked to economic growth, with a coefficient suggesting a 1% increase in economic growth results in a 1.44% increase in oil consumption [17]. Price and Trading Perspectives - Currently, copper prices remain relatively high while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [19]. - The trading landscape shows considerable divergence between oil and copper, with volatility and positioning metrics reflecting differing market sentiments [21]. - The analysis suggests that oil is experiencing a "Davis double whammy," where both price and trading data have been fully priced in, while copper is facing a "Davis single whammy," with supply pressures rising and demand declining [21]. Copper-Oil Ratio Analysis - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, with the average ratio since 1993 being approximately 98 [22]. - The extreme copper-oil ratio is expected to undergo some correction, potentially moving towards the 2020 average of 120 [33].

Group 1 - The World Bank has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions due to tariffs and increased policy uncertainty [1] - The World Bank projects a global economic growth of 2.3% in 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the January forecast, marking it as the slowest growth year since 2008 [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, with the US growth forecast reduced to 1.4%, the Eurozone at 0.7%, and Japan also at 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.8%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast, with growth slowdowns expected across various regions [2] - The World Bank has not revised its growth forecast for China this year, citing new fiscal policies that can offset the impact of rising trade barriers [2] - Global trade volume growth is expected to be 1.8% and 2.4% for this year and next, respectively, both lower than previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The World Bank's Chief Economist indicated that resolving trade disputes through agreements could lead to higher global economic growth than currently predicted [4] - The OECD has also downgraded its global economic growth forecast for this year and next, now expecting a GDP growth of 2.9% [4] - The OECD has revised the US economic growth forecast down to 1.6% for this year, while raising the overall inflation expectation to 3.2% [4]

Group 1 - International oil prices showed volatility, with a decline in closing prices on June 10, 2023. The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery fell by $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. Brent crude oil for August delivery decreased by $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, down 0.25% [1] - Optimism surrounding the China-US trade talks is providing support for oil prices, as indicated by Harry Tchilinguirian from Onyx Capital Group [1] - Saudi Aramco is expected to ship approximately 47 million barrels of crude oil to China in July, a decrease of 1 million barrels compared to June, which may signal an early indication of OPEC+ exiting production cuts [1] Group 2 - According to a survey by S&P Global, analysts estimate a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories, while gasoline and refined product inventories are expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels and 0.9 million barrels, respectively [2] - The US Energy Information Administration's monthly short-term energy outlook report indicates that US oil companies will reduce drilling activities due to low oil prices, leading to a decrease in drilling and completion numbers over the next 18 months [2] - The report projects that US average daily crude oil production will decline from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels per day in Q4 of this year, with an average slightly above 13.4 million barrels per day expected for the year [2]