Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is experiencing its first government shutdown in nearly seven years, leading to the longest decline of the dollar in a month, with historical data indicating that government shutdowns typically exert pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, influenced by uncertainties surrounding policies during the Trump administration, an expanding deficit, and pressures on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The options market reflects a trend of further downside risk for the dollar, as indicated by the risk reversal index, which measures the demand gap between bullish and bearish trades [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Jefferies' Chief European Strategist, Mohit Kumar, suggests that while stock market declines and U.S. Treasury increases may be moderate, the foreign exchange market is unlikely to reverse its current trend [1] - The duration of the government shutdown is critical; the longer it lasts, the greater the pressure on the dollar [1]

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 澳洲联邦银行（CBA）分析师称，到2026年第二季度，白银期货可能涨至46美元/盎司，甚至更高。风 险偏向上行，因美元面临下行风险，且白银的结构性避险需求走强。受避险需求和白银与美元的强烈反 向关系推动，银价处于14年高位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - GBP/USD has reached a two-month high around 1.3660, driven by a weaker dollar and positive UK employment data [1]. Technical Overview - The Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level at 1.3640 serves as immediate resistance. A breakout above this level could lead to the next resistance at 1.3700, followed by 1.3770 [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.3600, 1.3540, and 1.3500 [4]. Fundamental Overview - UK ILO unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7%, aligning with expectations. Average salary growth, excluding bonuses, slightly decreased from 5% to 4.8%, matching market consensus [6]. - The market is currently focused on upcoming US retail sales data, which could provide short-term support for the dollar if stronger than expected [6]. - Improved risk sentiment has pressured the dollar, with expectations of a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve contributing to this trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas indicates that weak U.S. employment data this week may put pressure on the dollar, potentially leading to a breakout of the dollar against the yen from its recent trading range [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. employment data set to be released on Friday is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a weak report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [1] - A soft employment report could reinforce the correlation between foreign exchange and interest rates that was interrupted earlier in the year [1]