【12月11日，资产管理公司Edmond de Rothschild Benjamin Melman称美元明年或再面临下行风险】该 公司表示，若市场再度担忧美国利率，或人工智能泡沫突然破裂，美元将面临风险。随着美联储降息， 美元今年持续走弱，美元指数DXY最新下跌0.05%至98.59。9月中旬该指数曾触及96.218的三年半低 点。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is experiencing its first government shutdown in nearly seven years, leading to the longest decline of the dollar in a month, with historical data indicating that government shutdowns typically exert pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, influenced by uncertainties surrounding policies during the Trump administration, an expanding deficit, and pressures on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The options market reflects a trend of further downside risk for the dollar, as indicated by the risk reversal index, which measures the demand gap between bullish and bearish trades [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Jefferies' Chief European Strategist, Mohit Kumar, suggests that while stock market declines and U.S. Treasury increases may be moderate, the foreign exchange market is unlikely to reverse its current trend [1] - The duration of the government shutdown is critical; the longer it lasts, the greater the pressure on the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) predict that silver futures may rise to $46 per ounce or higher by the second quarter of 2026, driven by upward risks due to a declining dollar and increasing structural safe-haven demand for silver [1] Group 1 - The upward risk for silver prices is attributed to the declining risk of the dollar [1] - Strong safe-haven demand for silver is contributing to its price being at a 14-year high [1] - The inverse relationship between silver and the dollar is a significant factor in the current pricing dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - GBP/USD has reached a two-month high around 1.3660, driven by a weaker dollar and positive UK employment data [1]. Technical Overview - The Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level at 1.3640 serves as immediate resistance. A breakout above this level could lead to the next resistance at 1.3700, followed by 1.3770 [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.3600, 1.3540, and 1.3500 [4]. Fundamental Overview - UK ILO unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7%, aligning with expectations. Average salary growth, excluding bonuses, slightly decreased from 5% to 4.8%, matching market consensus [6]. - The market is currently focused on upcoming US retail sales data, which could provide short-term support for the dollar if stronger than expected [6]. - Improved risk sentiment has pressured the dollar, with expectations of a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve contributing to this trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas indicates that weak U.S. employment data this week may put pressure on the dollar, potentially leading to a breakout of the dollar against the yen from its recent trading range [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. employment data set to be released on Friday is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a weak report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [1] - A soft employment report could reinforce the correlation between foreign exchange and interest rates that was interrupted earlier in the year [1]