1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization, and the trends of de - dollarization and reserve diversification continue [2][3] - In the short and medium term, geopolitical conflicts lead to an abrupt shift in monetary policy towards tightening expectations, causing the US dollar and the interest rate curve to rise. The global financial tightening expectation outweighs geopolitical hedging and economic recession, posing short - and medium - term negative impacts on precious metals [2][3] - There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts, while a relatively significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts. Warehouse receipts for silver at home and abroad have dropped sharply. There have been significant fluctuations in the internal - external price ratios of gold and silver, presenting arbitrage opportunities [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US is sending three warships and thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, possibly to "open up" the Strait of Hormuz or seize islands, and may launch a ground operation to take Iran's Harkel Island [7] - Saudi Arabia is trying to prevent the Yemeni Houthi rebels from joining the Iranian war, and the Houthi rebels previously said they might blockade the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait [7] - Influenced by remarks such as those of Trump, gold, bonds, oil, stocks, and foreign exchange completely reversed their intraday trends around 7 pm on Monday Beijing time, with oil prices dropping by $14 in 5 minutes and gold erasing a 9% decline and turning positive [7] - More central banks will increase their gold holdings due to geopolitical risks, as reported by the World Gold Council [7] - Turkey sold 22 tons of gold in a single week, the largest single - week decline since 2018, and a Turkish oil tanker carrying Russian oil was attacked in the Black Sea [7] 3.2 Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - COMEX: The latest long - position holdings of managed funds in gold futures and options are 122,450 contracts, with a持仓 ratio of 21%, and the short - position holdings are 35,978 contracts, with a ratio of 6%. In the past week, long - position holdings decreased by 5,556 contracts, and short - position holdings increased by 2,599 contracts [8] - SPDR's gold ETF holdings are 862 tons, and iShares' are 402 tons. The total gold ETF holdings are 1,447 tons [8] - The latest gold futures open interest in Shanghai is 407,927 lots, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts are 3 tons, while the external gold inventory is 617 ounces [8] 3.3 Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - COMEX: The latest long - position holdings of managed funds in silver futures and options are 44,277 contracts, with a持仓 ratio of 24%, and the short - position holdings are 27,801 contracts, with a ratio of 16%. In the past week, long - position holdings decreased by 4,423 contracts, and short - position holdings decreased by 4,757 contracts [14] - SLV's silver ETF holdings are 13,802 tons, and the total silver ETF holdings are 23,620 tons [14] - The latest silver futures open interest in Shanghai is 971,795 lots, and the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts are 1,075 tons, while the external silver inventory is 8,398 tons [14] 3.4 Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin have shown certain trends over time, but specific numerical trends need to be analyzed from the provided graphs [21] 3.5 Factors Affecting the Price Trends of Precious Metals - US Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position holdings of the US dollar index in ICE and related futures and options position data have shown certain trends over time, as presented in the graphs [23] 3.6 Factors Affecting the Price Trends of Precious Metals - US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position holdings of CBOT's 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as related position data, have shown certain trends over time, as presented in the graphs [26] 3.7 Factors Affecting the Price Trends of Precious Metals - US Inflation Expectation - The 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates have shown certain fluctuations from January 27 to March 26, 2026 [30] 3.8 Factors Affecting the Price Trends of Precious Metals - US Real Interest Rate - The monthly US Treasury real yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year terms have shown certain trends from April 2006 to October 2025 [32] 3.9 Factors Affecting the Price Trends of Precious Metals - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury bond interest rates, real interest rates (based on PCE with linear interpolation within the year), and inflation expectations (with linear interpolation within the year) for different terms (1M - 30Y) are presented in the graphs [35][36] 3.10 Factors Affecting the Price Trends of Precious Metals - 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spreads between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The 2 - year Treasury bond yield spreads between the US and the UK, Japan, China, and Germany have shown certain trends from January 27 to March 26, 2026 [39]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs has injected significant policy uncertainty, leading to a decline in the dollar and increased risk premiums for U.S. assets, while global market volatility remains high [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The South Korean Seoul Composite Index opened up by 1.6%, while the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.4% and the dollar index decreased by 0.2% [1]. - Asian stock indices rose by 0.5%, primarily driven by gains in major technology stocks [1]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.7% last Friday, marking its best weekly performance since January 9, as optimism from the tariff ruling offset concerns over escalating tensions with Iran [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly decreased to 4.08% amid mixed economic growth and inflation data, reflecting market uncertainty regarding potential budget shortfalls [7]. - Gold prices rose to $5,170 per ounce, increasing by 1.3%, while silver prices reached $87.11 per ounce, up nearly 3% [6]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that the comprehensive decline of the dollar may reflect new policy uncertainty stemming from the Supreme Court ruling, which could negatively impact investor sentiment and business activities [2]. - AT Global Markets' chief market analyst expressed that the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's next actions overshadows any positive factors from potential tariff reductions [4].

Core Viewpoint - UK government bond prices have slightly increased as a hawkish Bank of England official highlighted the sluggish economic growth, leading to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut next month [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Catherine Mann, a rate-setting official at the Bank of England, stated that the UK economy is "sluggish" and "weak," with high inflation leaving consumers with "trauma," resulting in reduced spending [1][7]. - Traders are betting that the Bank of England will cut rates by a total of 48 basis points this year, slightly up from about 46 basis points over the weekend [2][8]. - Upcoming UK employment data, expected to show a slowdown, may reinforce rate cut speculation, while CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday [3][9]. Group 2: Market Performance - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds fell by 2 basis points to 4.39% [5][12]. - German 10-year government bond yields decreased by 1 basis point to 2.75%, with trading remaining light [4][11]. - Italian 10-year government bond yields also dropped by 1 basis point to 3.36%, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened by 1 basis point to 61 basis points [5][11]. - French 10-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 3.33% [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The strong preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for February has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, partially reversing the bullish trend observed on Thursday [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw strong buying interest on dips, while Treasury yields ended slightly below their daily highs [1][9]. - Short-term Treasury yields rose approximately 4 basis points during the day, with the 2s10s and 5s30s yield spreads flattening by about 2 basis points [10]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The flattening of the yield curve was driven by two large risk-weighted matching futures trades involving 2-year and super 10-year Treasury futures contracts [11]. - As the stock market rebounded and swap spreads stabilized, the decline in Treasury prices expanded, particularly after the Michigan survey results exceeded expectations [11]. - By 3 PM, the trading volume of U.S. Treasury futures was about 90% of the 20-day average, with 2-year Treasury futures being the most active, showing a 25% increase in volume compared to the average [11]. Group 3: Yield Changes - As of 4:14 PM Eastern Time, the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 4.51 basis points to 3.4955% [12]. - The 5-year Treasury yield rose by 3.63 basis points to 3.755% [13]. - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.39 basis points to 4.204% [14]. - The 30-year Treasury yield rose by 1.23 basis points to 4.853% [15]. - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries decreased by 1.91 basis points to 70.645 basis points [16]. - The yield spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasuries decreased by 2.23 basis points to 109.802 basis points [17].

Group 1 - US Treasury futures recovered losses with yields slightly declining due to a broader stock market decline and rising WTI crude oil prices [1][3] - The stock market weakness was primarily driven by a sell-off in technology stocks, exacerbated by reports of the US Navy shooting down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea [1][3] - The busy corporate bond issuance schedule was dominated by financial companies, led by multiple tranches from Bank of America [1][3] Group 2 - As of 4:00 PM New York time, the yields for US Treasuries were reported as follows: 2-year at 3.5655%, 5-year at 3.8297%, 10-year at 4.2635%, and 30-year at 4.8952% [2][4] - The spread between 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields was 106.37 basis points, while the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields was 69.59 basis points [2][4] - The corporate bond issuance totaled $21.4 billion from 9 companies, with financial issuers comprising the majority, and the total issuance for the week approaching $50 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the Trump administration raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to set monetary policy free from political pressure [1][2][5]. Group 1: Political Reactions - Many former Federal Reserve chairs and Treasury secretaries have publicly supported Powell, condemning the criminal investigation as an unprecedented attack on the Fed's independence [2][3]. - Republican Senator Thom Tillis criticized the Trump administration's actions, suggesting they undermine the credibility of both the Justice Department and the Federal Reserve [3]. - Some Republican senators, including Lisa Murkowski, expressed intentions to block Trump’s nominees for the Federal Reserve in response to the investigation [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The investigation could lead to increased inflation expectations, which may drive interest rates higher, negatively impacting U.S. stock valuations, particularly in sensitive sectors [6][7]. - The dollar may face downward pressure as confidence in the U.S. economic policy framework weakens, potentially benefiting alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [6][7]. - The bond market is seen as a critical indicator; any signs of reduced Fed independence could lead to significant declines in the dollar [7].

Group 1 - Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, emphasizes the country's commitment to peace and coexistence, seeking international respect and cooperation while rejecting external threats [1] - The Venezuelan government invites the U.S. to collaborate on a development-oriented agenda within the framework of international law, stressing the importance of peaceful dialogue over conflict [1] - The Venezuelan Interior Minister, Carmen Melendez, asserts that Maduro is the only legitimate president, rejecting any claims of division within the armed forces and revolutionary movement [2] Group 2 - The Venezuelan Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, announces a nationwide state of full military readiness to protect sovereignty and maintain order in response to perceived imperialist threats [4][10] - The "Friends of the Charter of the United Nations" group condemns U.S. military actions against Venezuela, calling for respect for the country's sovereignty and the immediate return of Maduro and his wife [5] - China's Foreign Ministry supports an emergency UN Security Council meeting regarding U.S. military actions against Venezuela, expressing serious concern over the violation of international law [8][12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that speculators increased their net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) by 6,410 contracts, bringing the total to 46,626 contracts as of the week ending December 16 [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds experienced narrow fluctuations on Monday, with the yield curve steepening further, continuing recent trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Movements - Two large trades in futures occurred in the morning, pushing the 2s30s spread to nearly 135 basis points, the steepest level since November 2021 [1][2] - Short-term yields rose by 1-2 basis points compared to the previous trading day, while long-term yields saw slight increases [1][2] - The 2s10s and 5s30s spreads widened by approximately 1.2 basis points and 1.5 basis points, respectively, due to the continued outperformance of short and mid-term securities [1][2] Group 2: Options Market Activity - In the Treasury options market, investors bought call options betting on a decline in the 10-year yield to around 4%, with a volume close to 88,000 contracts for a March expiration at a strike price of 113.50 [1][3] - The volume of US Treasury futures was about 80% of the 10-day average by 3 PM, as investors awaited the delayed release of the November employment report and October retail sales data [1][3] Group 3: Yield Rates - As of 3:10 PM, the yield rates were as follows: 2-year at 3.5056%, 5-year at 3.733%, 10-year at 4.1821%, and 30-year at 4.8507% [2][3] - The spread between the 5-year and 30-year yields was reported at 111.59 basis points, while the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields was at 67.44 basis points [2][3]

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to operate at high levels, approaching $4,275 per ounce, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and a weaker dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve approved a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the lowest level in three years, which has decreased the holding cost of gold [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will become a major buyer of short-term Treasury bills, which is expected to lower short-term rates and ease structural funding pressures [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monthly purchase of approximately $40 billion in reserve management and an additional $14 billion in agency debt reinvestment in December is significantly higher than previous expectations [2] - The ongoing discussions between Ukraine and U.S. officials regarding a revised peace framework have slightly reduced market risk aversion, which could limit short-term gains for gold [2] - Gold's upward movement is driven by the rate cut, weak employment data, and a declining dollar, while geopolitical changes and volatility in the tech sector remain as disruptive factors [3]