1、委内瑞拉代总统致信美国及世界 当地时间1月4日，委内瑞拉外长希尔发布代总统德尔西·罗德里格斯致世界及美国的信息。信中 称，委内瑞拉重申其追求和平与和平共处的信念，渴望在国际尊重与合作的环境中，免受外部威胁地生 活。委内瑞拉相信，全球和平的构建首先要保障每个国家的和平。 委内瑞拉认为，推动美国与委内瑞 拉、委内瑞拉与本地区各国之间，建立基于主权平等和互不干涉的平衡、尊重的国际关系是当务之急。 这些原则指导着委内瑞拉与世界其他国家的外交关系。 委内瑞拉政府诚邀美国政府共同制定以共同发 展为导向的合作议程，在国际法框架内加强持久的共同体共处。 信中称，委内瑞拉人民和地区值得享 有和平与对话，而非战争。这始终是委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的立场，委内瑞拉有权享有和平、发展、主权 与未来。（CCTV国际时讯） 2、李在明在华表态：韩中如在同一海域同向航行的船只 据韩联社报道，韩国总统李在明5日在北京出席一场商务论坛时表示，韩国和中国需要深化在人工 智能（AI）、文化等领域合作。他同时以"同海共航"为喻，阐释韩中经贸的深厚联结。李在明当天表 示，韩中如同在同一海域同向航行的船只，曾携手跨越风浪，通过产业链供应链的深度互嵌相互成 ...

每经AI快讯，12月24日，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至12月16日当周，投机者将芝 加哥期货交易所(CBOT)美国国债期货净空头头寸增加6410份合约，至46626份合约。 ...

两笔期货大宗交易在早上8点刚过成交，明显押注收益率曲线走陡，规模约为60万美元/DV01。 在10年期国债期权方面，投资者通过买入3月份到期、执行价113.50的看涨期权来寻求看多保护，成交 量接近8.8万手。 美国国债周一窄幅涨跌互现，收益率曲线进一步走陡，延续了近期走势。在期货方面，在美国上午时 段，2年期与超长期国债期货合约出现两笔大宗交易，推动2s30s利差扩大至接近135个基点，为2021年 11月份以来最陡水平。国债期权市场中，有资金买入押注10年期收益率降至约4%的看涨期权。 纽约时间下午3点过后不久，短端收益率较前一交易日上升1-2个基点，长端收益率当日略有走高。曲线 短端和中段品种的持续跑赢，令2s10s和5s30s利差分别扩大约1.2个基点和1.5个基点。 纽约时间下午3：10， 2年期国债收益率报3.5056%； 截至下午3点，美国国债期货成交量约为10日平均水平的80%，投资者正等待推迟至周二公布的11月份 就业报告以及10月份零售销售数据。 5年期国债收益率报3.733%； 10年期国债收益率报4.1821%； 30年期国债收益率报4.8507%； 5年和30年期国债收益率差报111 ...

乌克兰方面与美国官员就修订后的20点和平框架展开沟通，使市场避险情绪略有减弱。一旦和平进程出 现实质性推进，黄金作为避险工具的吸引力将有所下降，限制短线涨幅。 美国股指整体维持强势，但科技板块因博通与甲骨文的回调而承压。标普500与道指继续刷新历史高 点，纳斯达克则在大型科技股走弱的影响下轻微回落。市场对美联储流动性改善保持积极预期，但AI 产业链盈利兑现速度的争议让科技股波动加大。 黄金走势仍保持在强势区间。关注4245至4250美元一线的压力，以及下方4200美元的关键支撑。若金价 能够在降息与流动性释放的支撑下站稳4250美元上方，后续有望测试4277至4300美元区间。若科技股带 动风险偏好回暖或乌克兰局势进一步降温，则需观察金价在4200至4170美元区间的支撑表现。短线策略 宜围绕事件驱动、利率预期调整与资金面变化合理控制节奏。 周五亚洲时段，黄金继续在高位运行，盘中逼近每盎司4275美元。美联储宣布降息、美元走弱以及就业 数据疲软，使宽松预期快速升温；同时，美联储加大短期国库券购入力度，阶段性缓解融资压力。尽管 科技板块的调整令美股表现分化，但利率与流动性两条主线均对金价构成支撑。地缘局势的缓和 ...

Core Insights - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) temporarily halted all futures and options trading due to a technical failure at a third-party data center, raising concerns about price volatility upon resumption of trading [1][3] Group 1: Impact on Trading - The immediate cause of the trading suspension was a cooling system failure at the CyrusOne data center, affecting core trading products across various sectors including energy, agricultural products, fixed income, and stock indices [3] - Key contracts such as WTI crude oil futures and gasoline futures were impacted, with WTI last trading at 10:47 AM Beijing time before orders could no longer be matched [3] - The halt also affected U.S. Treasury futures and S&P 500 index futures, with trading channels closing rapidly after the incident [3] Group 2: Broader Market Effects - The failure significantly disrupted liquidity in the foreign exchange market, particularly affecting EBS, a major forex trading platform, leading to gaps in pricing and forcing traders to pause large forex hedging operations [3] - Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, noted that the current environment of relative liquidity scarcity, combined with a wait-and-see attitude ahead of macroeconomic data releases, could lead to a breakdown in price discovery mechanisms due to the trading halt [3] Group 3: Regional Impact - The Malaysian Exchange also announced a suspension of all derivative products due to the same technical failure, collaborating closely with CME's technical team for service restoration [4] - The palm oil futures contract, which is the largest by trading volume globally, was reported at 4,112 ringgit per ton before the suspension, reflecting a 0.54% increase from the previous trading day [4]

贵金属期货 周报—2025-11-28 1、黄金AU 观点： 在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升，而美国黄金仓单有相对显 著的下降；国内外白银仓单骤降。 基本面： 1、美联储官员密集发声—①威廉姆斯：仍认为近期存在降息空间。②柯林斯：仍认为有理由对12月降息持谨慎态度，预计未来将进一步 降息。2、美国9月零售销售月率录得0.2%，逊于预期；9月PPI月率录得0.3%，与预期一致。ADP周度就业报告：截至2025年11月8日的四 周里，私人部门雇主平均每周减少13500个就业岗位。3、俄罗斯方面表示已收到美方关于乌克兰和平计划的"最新版本"，佩斯科夫称 现在说乌克兰和平协议即将达成还为时尚早。外媒：美国希望乌克兰先达成和平协议再谈安全保障。4、欧洲央行会议纪要：前景依然不 明朗，继续等待更多信息仍具有较高的选择权价值。有观点认为，降息周期已经结束。 2、白银AG 观点：在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去 ...

Group 1 - The stock market has risen for six consecutive months, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and a loose financial environment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is "far from certain," with a split among officials regarding the decision [1][2] - The bond market reacted sharply, with significant increases in bond yields and a rise in the dollar, as the likelihood of a December rate cut dropped from 90% to about 50% [1] Group 2 - The divergence in opinions within the Federal Reserve complicates the balance between inflation and employment, leading to potential inefficacies in bond trading strategies [2] - Bill Gross, a prominent investor, is selling U.S. Treasury futures, betting on high fiscal deficits and massive debt issuance to continue pushing yields higher [2][5] - The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 2% despite bond market volatility, indicating resilience in tech stocks [3] Group 3 - High U.S. Treasury yields make holding cash in dollars more attractive for global investors, potentially supporting the dollar against major currencies [4] - Morgan Stanley's currency trading team shifted to a neutral stance on the dollar after previously being bearish, suggesting a change in market sentiment [4] - TS Lombard is betting that U.S. short-term rates will exceed Japan's by year-end, reflecting differing central bank policy paths [4] Group 4 - Bill Gross warns of excessive risks in the U.S. financial system due to expanding deficits and a weakening dollar, maintaining a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly uncertain, with internal divisions among officials regarding the timing and necessity of further rate reductions [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a continued rate cut in December due to risks of a slowing labor market, contrasting with other officials who express concerns about inflation risks [3][4]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from over 90% to approximately 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [4]. Group 2: Internal Divisions Among Officials - There is a notable increase in internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with two voting members opposing the recent rate cut, indicating a split in views on monetary policy [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that the recent rate cut may have been too aggressive, citing ongoing inflation risks [3][5]. - Market analysts suggest that if future economic data remains mixed, the divisions within the Federal Reserve may persist for a longer period [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Bill Gross, co-founder of Pimco, has adopted a bearish stance on U.S. Treasuries, citing excessive expansion risks in the U.S. financial system and a growing deficit [6]. - Investors are advised to adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less affected by short-term policy fluctuations [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision saw two dissenting votes among the 12 committee members, marking a rare occurrence of opposing views, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut and another for maintaining the current rate [1][6] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path has led to increased market volatility, with notable figures like Bill Gross beginning to short U.S. Treasury bonds [4][9] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from 91.7% to 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, indicating a shift in market expectations [2][5] Group 2 - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, has expressed a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries, citing concerns over rising deficits and a weakening dollar as key factors influencing his decision to sell 10-year Treasury futures [3][11] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming a focal point for market participants, with various officials presenting differing views on the necessity of rate cuts [6][8] - Analysts suggest that in the current environment, investors may need to adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less sensitive to short-term policy fluctuations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in the market due to the Federal Reserve's mixed signals regarding interest rate decisions, highlighted by the divergence among its members and the actions of prominent investors like Bill Gross [2][5][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Divergence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged strong differing opinions within the FOMC, with two dissenting votes in the recent rate decision [5][6]. - Some officials advocate for a significant rate cut, while others prefer to maintain the current rates, indicating a lack of consensus [5][7]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 91.7% to 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, reflecting market uncertainty [2][4]. Group 2: Bill Gross's Investment Strategy - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, has begun selling U.S. Treasury futures, betting on rising yields due to high deficits and excessive debt issuance [4][10]. - Gross expressed a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries, citing risks from an expanding deficit and a weakening dollar [11][12]. - He believes that even with a slowdown in economic growth, the supply of U.S. Treasuries is too high, leading to his decision to sell 10-year Treasury futures [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Strategies - Analysts suggest that in the current environment, investors should adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less affected by short-term policy fluctuations [13]. - High U.S. Treasury yields are supporting the dollar index, making dollar cash holdings more attractive to global investors [14]. - Morgan Stanley's currency team has shifted its outlook on the dollar to neutral after the Fed's October meeting, advising to close short positions on the euro and yen [15].