Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, which have increased over 50% this year, is supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, and UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, maintaining an "attractive" strategic rating for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors Supporting Gold Prices - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and concerns over fiscal stability have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a rate-cutting cycle and doubts about the long-term value of the U.S. dollar are significant factors supporting gold prices [2]. - The low correlation of gold with major stock and bond indices, especially during market stress, enhances its appeal as a diversification tool [2]. Group 2: Continued Upward Momentum for Gold Prices - The expectation of a declining real interest rate, driven by the Fed's easing and persistent inflation above 2%, is likely to further reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain near historical highs, with an estimated 900-950 tons expected by 2025, providing a solid foundation for gold demand [4]. - Strong demand from ETFs and retail investors, with a notable 21% month-on-month increase in gold sales reported by the Perth Mint, indicates robust market interest [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Portfolio Stabilizer - In a context of high stock valuations and ongoing market uncertainty, gold's attributes as a hedge and diversification tool are increasingly important [6]. - Gold's characteristics as a store of value and its high liquidity make it an essential component of a diversified investment portfolio [6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - UBS advises investors seeking to enhance portfolio resilience to increase their allocation to gold to a "low single-digit percentage" to hedge against inflation and uncertainty [7]. - In addition to gold, diversifying with high-quality bonds and hedge funds is recommended to mitigate the impact of single asset volatility on the portfolio [7]. - The long-term strategic value of gold is emphasized, suggesting it should be included in a long-term asset allocation framework rather than for short-term speculation [7].

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on three major issues: Trump's tariff policy, US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - Trump's tariff policy is expected to raise inflation expectations, weaken the purchasing power of the dollar, and increase market risk aversion, which is favorable for gold [1] - A breakthrough in US-Iran nuclear negotiations could ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially suppressing short-term gold demand, but long-term uncertainties may still support gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance in its interest rate decision, it will further pressure the dollar and support gold [1] Group 2 - Last Friday, gold trading was light due to the Good Friday holiday, but a significant drop of $70 on Thursday did not alter its long-term upward trend [3] - Gold prices surged in early trading, breaking through the new high of 3396 and accelerating to refresh historical highs, with both monthly and weekly charts showing a perfect upward trend [3] - Current resistance levels for gold are between 3396-3400, while support levels are at 3354-3349, with a recommendation to focus on buying during pullbacks and selling on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Strategy 1 suggests selling on rebounds at 3396-3403 with a stop loss at 3410 and a target of 3380-3360 [4] - Strategy 2 recommends buying on pullbacks at 3355-3350 with a stop loss at 3343 and a target of 3380-3400 [5]