新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 2月24日，当前的贵金属市场正处于多重利好因素的交汇点，尽管金价近期表现相对稳健，但 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，市场尚未完全消化地缘政治风险升级所带来的深远影响。随着中东局势的持续紧 绷，军事部署的规模已达到近年来罕见的正态分布，这种潜在的不确定性为黄金提供了坚实的底部支 撑。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，若将美联储明确的货币宽松路径与全球范围内激增的实物需求相结合，金价 在今年6月前有望在当前基础上再录得1000美元/盎司的涨幅，目标直指6200美元。 宏观层面的流动性转向是支撑金价上涨的另一核心支柱。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，尽管部分经济数据表现 出韧性，但通胀压力的整体放缓以及美联储内部立场向鸽派的倾斜，预示着降息周期仍有下半场。预计 到9月底，市场将迎来两次25个基点的利率下调。实际利率的走低与美元购买力的相对弱化，共同营造 了有利于硬资产估值扩张的环境。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，地缘政治震荡虽常引发短期波动，但在美联储 宽松周期的加持下，黄金作为投资组合对冲工具的需求将展现出更强的持续性。 从供需基本面来看，黄金市场的结构性失衡正在加剧。Mhmarkets ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, which have increased over 50% this year, is supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, and UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, maintaining an "attractive" strategic rating for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors Supporting Gold Prices - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and concerns over fiscal stability have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a rate-cutting cycle and doubts about the long-term value of the U.S. dollar are significant factors supporting gold prices [2]. - The low correlation of gold with major stock and bond indices, especially during market stress, enhances its appeal as a diversification tool [2]. Group 2: Continued Upward Momentum for Gold Prices - The expectation of a declining real interest rate, driven by the Fed's easing and persistent inflation above 2%, is likely to further reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain near historical highs, with an estimated 900-950 tons expected by 2025, providing a solid foundation for gold demand [4]. - Strong demand from ETFs and retail investors, with a notable 21% month-on-month increase in gold sales reported by the Perth Mint, indicates robust market interest [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Portfolio Stabilizer - In a context of high stock valuations and ongoing market uncertainty, gold's attributes as a hedge and diversification tool are increasingly important [6]. - Gold's characteristics as a store of value and its high liquidity make it an essential component of a diversified investment portfolio [6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - UBS advises investors seeking to enhance portfolio resilience to increase their allocation to gold to a "low single-digit percentage" to hedge against inflation and uncertainty [7]. - In addition to gold, diversifying with high-quality bonds and hedge funds is recommended to mitigate the impact of single asset volatility on the portfolio [7]. - The long-term strategic value of gold is emphasized, suggesting it should be included in a long-term asset allocation framework rather than for short-term speculation [7].

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on three major issues: Trump's tariff policy, US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - Trump's tariff policy is expected to raise inflation expectations, weaken the purchasing power of the dollar, and increase market risk aversion, which is favorable for gold [1] - A breakthrough in US-Iran nuclear negotiations could ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially suppressing short-term gold demand, but long-term uncertainties may still support gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance in its interest rate decision, it will further pressure the dollar and support gold [1] Group 2 - Last Friday, gold trading was light due to the Good Friday holiday, but a significant drop of $70 on Thursday did not alter its long-term upward trend [3] - Gold prices surged in early trading, breaking through the new high of 3396 and accelerating to refresh historical highs, with both monthly and weekly charts showing a perfect upward trend [3] - Current resistance levels for gold are between 3396-3400, while support levels are at 3354-3349, with a recommendation to focus on buying during pullbacks and selling on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Strategy 1 suggests selling on rebounds at 3396-3403 with a stop loss at 3410 and a target of 3380-3360 [4] - Strategy 2 recommends buying on pullbacks at 3355-3350 with a stop loss at 3343 and a target of 3380-3400 [5]