Group 1: Global and China Market Outlook - The core theme for the second half of 2025 is "Dollar Turnaround," with expectations of increased market volatility due to geopolitical tensions and trade discussions [6] - The probability of a soft landing for the US economy has been adjusted from 50% to 55%, supported by over $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus from the "Big and Beautiful Act" [6] - Investment strategies suggest overweighting global equities, particularly in Asian markets excluding Japan, with a focus on South Korea and China [6] Group 2: Macro Economic Insights - The US economy is expected to slow down but avoid recession, with growth projected to fall below the long-term average of 1.8% [8] - The Eurozone is seeing investment opportunities due to the euro's appreciation and fiscal stimulus measures, which are expected to drive economic growth [8][9] - China's economy shows resilience, with fiscal support expected to continue, particularly in response to external pressures [10] Group 3: Currency and Stock Market Analysis - The dollar is entering a weakening cycle, which may benefit emerging market currencies and assets as capital flows increase [11] - Global stock markets are expected to perform well during periods of dollar weakness, with a particular emphasis on Asian markets for their growth potential [12] - US stocks remain a core part of investment portfolios, while European stocks are also seen as attractive due to increased fiscal spending and economic recovery [13] Group 4: Diversification Strategies - Gold is viewed as a key diversification tool in investment portfolios, particularly in the context of increasing market volatility [14] - Alternative investment strategies are recommended to balance portfolios and capture diverse returns, such as long-short equity strategies [15] Group 5: Wealth Management Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to adopt a global investment approach to mitigate risks and capture growth opportunities in different economic cycles [17] - A diversified product layout, including "fixed income plus" and structured investment products, is essential for balancing stability and returns [17] Group 6: Focus on Asia-Pacific Opportunities - The rise of emerging markets in Asia is seen as a significant opportunity for global economic growth, particularly for Chinese companies looking to expand overseas [19] - Key opportunities for Chinese SMEs include policy support, market potential in Southeast Asia, technological advancements, and mature trade channels [20] Group 7: Challenges and Strategies - The ongoing US-China trade tensions and tariff challenges necessitate strategic responses from Asian countries to maintain competitiveness [22] - Singapore is highlighted as a favorable environment for Chinese enterprises due to its transparent legal framework and supportive government policies [23]

财富方案全球首席投资总监办公室 2025 年 6 月 20 日 2025 年下半年 全球市场展望 美元转向 运筹决胜 我们超配全球股票。全球各地放宽政策、 美国经济很大机会软着陆及美元走弱都有 利于风险资产。我们看好多元化的全球股 票配置，其中我们将亚洲（除日本）股票 上调至超配。 我们预计美元将会走弱，对欧元、日圆和 英镑有利。根据历史经验，美元疲软有助 支持股票和非美国股票表现领先。我们看 好 5-7 年期的美元债券，并将新兴市场本 币债上调至超配。 重新加征关税、通胀和经济数据疲软是主 要风险。黄金和另类投资策略是吸引的多 元化投资工具，也有助减低暂时的波动。 多资产收益配置仍然有 5% 的收益率吗？ 美元的主导地位结束了吗？ 你的量化模型是否仍然偏好 风险资产？ 重要披露载于披露附录。 01 策略 02 宏观概况一瞥 03 资产类别 04 额外观点 05 表现回顾 目录 | | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.1 400 | - n 11 | 3 - | | 投资策略：美元转向 运筹决胜 | 03 | | --- | --- | | 基础资产配置模型 | 06 | | 基础 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is centered around "Dollar Shift: Strategic Decision-Making," emphasizing the favorable conditions for risk assets due to global policy easing, a likely soft landing for the US economy, and a weakening dollar [1][4][21] - The report recommends an overweight position in global equities, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian (excluding Japan) stocks, while maintaining a positive outlook on US stocks due to strong earnings [1][4][21] - In the bond market, the report anticipates a weaker dollar and favors 5-7 year US dollar bonds, as well as an overweight position in emerging market local currency bonds, which are expected to benefit from a soft dollar and potential interest rate cuts by emerging market central banks [1][4][29] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests an increased probability of a soft landing for the US economy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies [2][4][30] - Gold is highlighted as an important diversification tool, with central bank demand expected to support its price, especially when bonds may not perform well [2][30] - The report discusses various asset allocation models, multi-asset income strategies, and insights on client concerns, providing a multi-dimensional analysis of the global market [2][4][46] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dollar is expected to weaken over the next 6-12 months, benefiting the euro, yen, and pound, while the Swiss franc may remain range-bound [1][24][29] - Historical data suggests that a weak dollar typically supports stock performance, particularly for non-US equities, leading to a positive outlook for global stock markets [1][25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies, particularly in light of potential volatility and geopolitical risks [1][4][30]

Core Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - The report recommends an overweight position in global equities, particularly in Asian markets (excluding Japan), due to expected earnings growth, policy support, and attractive valuations [2][19] - Non-USD bonds are to be increased, with emerging market local currency bonds being upgraded to overweight due to the anticipated weakening of the USD and significant room for central bank rate cuts [2][19] - Gold is positioned as a core asset, benefiting from de-dollarization, central bank purchases, and inflation hedging, with a 3-month target price of $3,400 [2][19] Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks - The core scenario anticipates a soft landing for the US economy, supported by trade truce, fiscal stimulus, and a projected 75 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][17] - Key risks include the potential end of the tariff suspension in July, Middle Eastern conflicts possibly driving oil prices above $100, and the implications of the proposed Section 899 tax on multinational investments [3][27] Asset Class Views - The USD is expected to weaken over the next 6-12 months, benefiting the Euro, Yen, and Pound, with specific targets set for currency pairs [4][20] - Gold is projected to have upward potential, with a 12-month target of $3,500, while oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, although geopolitical tensions could cause short-term spikes [4][27] - The stock-bond model has shifted to neutral, indicating a mixed outlook for equities, with emerging market local currency bonds requiring caution due to potential short-term reversals [4][24] Key Events and Outlook - Important upcoming events include tariff negotiations in July, central bank meetings in Europe and the US, and the IMF annual meeting in October [5][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment principles, diversification, and balancing liquidity, growth, and protection needs in the context of the dollar's transition [5][19]