Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "rebalancing" as a strategy to manage investment portfolios, emphasizing its effectiveness in achieving "buy low, sell high" without the need for precise market timing [6][12][40] - Rebalancing is most effective when the assets in a portfolio have similar long-term returns but exhibit significant short-term volatility, allowing for better profit-taking opportunities [13][14][23] - The article presents empirical data showing that rebalancing can enhance returns, particularly in combinations like "A-shares & cash" and "A-shares & bonds," where annualized returns differ by no more than 3% over the past decade [23][26] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that rebalancing may not always be beneficial, especially in scenarios where asset classes have significantly different long-term returns, as it can limit exposure to high-performing assets [29][30][36] - The article highlights that the primary value of rebalancing lies in risk management rather than solely in return enhancement, helping to maintain a portfolio's risk profile within acceptable limits [43][44] - It emphasizes the importance of having a clear initial asset allocation strategy to maximize the benefits of rebalancing, ensuring that it serves its intended purpose of stabilizing the investment approach [43][44]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report emphasizes a positive outlook on global equities while being cautious about the US dollar's strength, suggesting a shift towards risk assets due to expected dollar weakness [2][3]. Global Stock Outlook - The bank continues to favor global stocks, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar, which is expected to attract more capital into emerging markets [3][11]. - The chief investment officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the global investment environment, with a structural risk of "de-dollarization" gaining attention [4]. Fixed Income Strategy - Standard Chartered expects the dollar's decline to enhance the appeal of emerging market local currency bonds, maintaining an overweight position in these assets [7]. - The bank views global bonds as a core portfolio component, favoring emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and economic uncertainty [9]. Currency Perspective - The bank predicts that cyclical factors will lead to a weaker dollar over the next 6-12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend [13]. - Despite the dollar's ongoing dominance, there are signs of a gradual erosion of its position due to changing trade flows and structural debt concerns [14][15]. Gold and Diversification - The report notes that gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold purchases [18][19]. - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will rise over the next five years, up from 69% in the previous year [18].

Macro Outlook - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released the "Global Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025," indicating that global central bank easing, a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, and a weaker dollar are favorable for risk assets, maintaining a positive outlook on global equities [1] - The bank expects a weaker dollar to benefit the euro, pound, yen, and 5-7 year U.S. dollar bonds, while upgrading emerging market local currency debt to overweight [1] Investment Strategy - The Chief Investment Officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered, Zheng Zifeng, highlighted the current uncertain global investment environment, emphasizing the structural risks of "de-dollarization" and the influx of funds into emerging markets due to a weaker dollar [1] - The bank suggests that investors should diversify not only across asset classes but also geographically to maintain long-term superior returns [1] Fixed Income - Standard Chartered views the bond market as a core investment allocation, overweighting emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and risks associated with U.S. economic growth uncertainty [2] - The bank remains positive on emerging market Asian local currency bonds, UK government bonds (unhedged), and U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities [2] Equities - The bank continues to overweight global equities, citing easing trade tensions and robust earnings growth, despite the impact of tariffs [2] - Asian (excluding Japan) equities have been upgraded to overweight, driven by a weaker dollar attracting more funds into emerging markets [2] Currency Outlook - Standard Chartered anticipates a weaker dollar over the next 6 to 12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend, while the pound shows resilience [2] Commodities - In the gold market, if Middle Eastern tensions are controlled, short-term upside for gold may be limited, but it remains an important strategic hedge [3] - The bank raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3,400 while maintaining a 12-month forecast of $3,500 [3] - For oil, Standard Chartered expects prices to stabilize around $65 per barrel in the next 3 to 12 months, with geopolitical risks potentially causing short-term spikes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is centered around "Dollar Shift: Strategic Decision-Making," emphasizing the favorable conditions for risk assets due to global policy easing, a likely soft landing for the US economy, and a weakening dollar [1][4][21] - The report recommends an overweight position in global equities, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian (excluding Japan) stocks, while maintaining a positive outlook on US stocks due to strong earnings [1][4][21] - In the bond market, the report anticipates a weaker dollar and favors 5-7 year US dollar bonds, as well as an overweight position in emerging market local currency bonds, which are expected to benefit from a soft dollar and potential interest rate cuts by emerging market central banks [1][4][29] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests an increased probability of a soft landing for the US economy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies [2][4][30] - Gold is highlighted as an important diversification tool, with central bank demand expected to support its price, especially when bonds may not perform well [2][30] - The report discusses various asset allocation models, multi-asset income strategies, and insights on client concerns, providing a multi-dimensional analysis of the global market [2][4][46] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dollar is expected to weaken over the next 6-12 months, benefiting the euro, yen, and pound, while the Swiss franc may remain range-bound [1][24][29] - Historical data suggests that a weak dollar typically supports stock performance, particularly for non-US equities, leading to a positive outlook for global stock markets [1][25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies, particularly in light of potential volatility and geopolitical risks [1][4][30]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of U.S. stocks and risk assets is closely tied to three key indicators: broker stocks, bank stocks, and Bitcoin, which will serve as signals for market direction [1][10]. Group 1: Market Indicators - Broker stocks, bank stocks, and Bitcoin are identified as the best indicators for market trends, with a double top pattern signaling a bearish outlook and a clean upward breakout indicating a bullish outlook [1]. - The S&P 500 index recorded its best May performance since 1990, surging 6%, while the 30-year Treasury bond saw an increase following recommendations to invest in "humiliated" assets [1][10]. Group 2: Dollar and Economic Sentiment - In contrast to the rally in risk assets, the dollar is struggling to gain traction, leading to speculation about a potential bear market for the dollar [3]. - The weak dollar is viewed as a tool to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, which currently accounts for only 8% of U.S. jobs, potentially leading to a bear market for the dollar and a bull market for gold, emerging markets, and international assets [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Bearish investors are positioning themselves defensively by allocating to healthcare, consumer staples, and utility stocks, which currently represent only 18% of the S&P 500, the lowest level since 2000 [5]. - Bullish investors are employing a barbell strategy by going long on the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and value stocks from other regions to hedge against potential market bubbles and risks from excessive EU fiscal spending [8]. Group 4: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Recent fund flow data indicates a divergence in market sentiment, with cryptocurrencies seeing a significant inflow of $2.6 billion, the largest weekly inflow since January [10]. - Despite the bullish outlook for the "Magnificent Seven," historical data suggests that market bubbles typically peak at a P/E ratio of 58x and a 244% increase, indicating that there may still be 30% upside potential [10]. Group 5: Historical Context - The current market environment is reminiscent of past asset bubbles, with 12 out of the last 14 bubbles accompanied by rising bond yields, and the 30-year real interest rate nearing its highest level since November 2008 [11].