Core Viewpoint - The recent golden cross signal for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates a strong potential for the dollar to appreciate in the coming months, with historical data supporting this trend [1][4][6]. Group 1: Golden Cross Signal Analysis - The golden cross occurred on December 19, with the dollar index closing at 98.60, as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average [4]. - Historically, after a golden cross, the dollar index has shown a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [1][6]. - This particular golden cross is notable as it is the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, leading to an 80% probability of dollar appreciation [3][8]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index shows mixed performance initially after the golden cross, but typically strengthens after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [12]. - Crude oil reacts positively to the golden cross, with a 100% probability of rising 35 trading days post-signal when the 200-day moving average is also declining, averaging a 9.07% increase [12]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit neutral responses to the golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of rising, indicating a potential divergence in traditional safe-haven assets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent occurrence of a "golden cross" signal for the US dollar index on December 19, which historically indicates a strengthening of the dollar. This is the 39th occurrence of such a signal, with a notable historical context that suggests a high probability of dollar appreciation in the coming months [1][2][9]. Group 1: Golden Cross Signal Analysis - The dollar index (DXY) experienced a golden cross on December 19, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend [7]. - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the dollar index has a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [2][9]. - This specific golden cross is particularly rare, being the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, which historically correlates with an 80% probability of dollar appreciation [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index typically shows mixed performance in the initial phase after a golden cross, but tends to strengthen after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [6][14]. - The oil market reacts positively to the golden cross signal, with a 100% probability of price increases within 35 trading days following the signal, averaging a rise of 9.07% [6][14]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit a neutral response to the dollar's golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of price increases, indicating a lack of clear trend preference [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent technical buy signal triggered by the US Dollar Index (DXY) suggests a potential upward trend for both US stocks and crude oil, with historical data indicating a strong likelihood of dollar appreciation following this signal [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The DXY experienced its 39th golden cross on December 19, indicating a bullish signal as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average [4][7]. - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the dollar index has a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [7][8]. - This particular golden cross is notable as it is the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, leading to an 80% probability of dollar appreciation in the following days [3][8]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index typically shows mixed performance in the initial phase after the golden cross, but tends to strengthen after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [11]. - Crude oil has a perfect record following the golden cross, with a 100% probability of rising 35 trading days later, averaging a gain of 9.07% [11]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit a neutral response to the dollar's golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of upward movement, indicating a divergence in traditional safe-haven assets [11].