机构认为，汇价短期仍有下行压力，跌破1.3640或下探1.3550—1.3580，反弹阻力在1.3720—1.3750及 1.3800。中长期走势取决于三大变量：美加政策分化持续性、油价复苏态势、加国经济多元化及美加贸 易谈判结果。 加元与油价高度绑定，近期WTI原油企稳反弹至57.20美元/桶，中东局势引发的供应担忧是主因，直接 支撑加元，抵消部分年内油价下跌的冲击。但WCS与WTI价差及油价整体弱势仍制约加元，避免汇价 单边急跌。 北美贸易不确定性持续影响加元。美墨加协定审议临近，加拿大谈判态度拉长不确定性，推升加元风险 溢价；美国钢铝关税则抑制加国商业投资，对加元基本面构成压力。 技术面看，美元兑加元自11月高点震荡下行，处于下降通道，跌破1.3700支撑位后在1.3640—1.3660测 试低点，空头主导。均线空头排列压制汇价，RSI未达超卖区，MACD零轴下方运行，下行动能仍存。 2025年12月末，美元兑加元延续下行，12月29日亚洲时段汇价跌至1.3660附近，逼近12月26日创下的五 个月低点1.3642。年末政策预期、油价及地缘风险主导走势，当前弱势源于美联储宽松预期与加央行中 性立场分化， ...

Group 1 - The core logic of the USD/CAD exchange rate is focused on the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, with the former pausing interest rate cuts while the latter continues its accommodative stance [1][3] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate at 2.25% after a total of 100 basis points of cuts throughout the year, signaling a neutral to hawkish stance, which has led the market to price in potential rate hikes by 2026 [1][2] - In contrast, the Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with expectations of only one more cut next year, but internal dissent among officials indicates significant divisions [1][2] Group 2 - Canada's economy shows resilience with a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3 and a drop in unemployment to 6.5%, supporting the central bank's policy stance [2] - However, as a resource-exporting economy, the Canadian dollar is still pressured by falling oil prices, which are projected to decline by 15.2% by 2025, affecting export revenues [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela/Russia, have increased volatility and boosted demand for the dollar as a safe haven, further suppressing the Canadian dollar [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to the interplay of monetary policy divergence, oil price volatility, and economic fundamentals [3] - Key future indicators to watch include guidance on potential rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, OPEC+ production policies, U.S. inflation data, and developments in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations [3]