Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, and gold prices are oscillating at high levels [1]. - Short - term gold price trends are volatile. With the upcoming U.S. Christmas holidays, market trading will become quiet. The previous high of gold has not been broken, and silver has been over - hyped, so there is a need to beware of correction risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High - frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 4.08 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 1.78 yuan and a change rate of - 30.4%. The internal - external futures spread (internal - external) was - 9.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.44 yuan and a change rate of - 21.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 414 kg to 91,716 kg, a 0.5% change. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 38,170 ounces to 36,005,922 ounces, a 0.11% change [12]. - The SPDR ETF holding decreased by 0.57 tons to 1052.54 tons, a - 0.05% change. The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 4,829 lots to 124,637 lots, a 4.0% change [12]. - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 4.16%, a - 0.7% change. The U.S. 10 - year break - even inflation rate decreased by 0.0345 percentage points to 2.2416%, a - 1.52% change [12]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 7 points to 6,835, a 0.1% change. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 14.9%, a - 5.3% change. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 1.89%, a - 0.7% change [12]. 2. Financial Market - related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.66%. Oil prices fell by 0.7%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.24% [18]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.14%. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.1%, and the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9 [21]. - The real interest rate slightly decreased to 1.89%, and the gold price rose by 0.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% [22]. 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.1%. Most developing - country stock markets fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% [24]. - U.S. Treasury bonds declined, German bonds rose, and the U.S. - German yield spread was 1.26%. The yield on UK Treasury bonds was 4.5%, and that on Japanese bonds was 2.02% [27]. - The euro depreciated by 0.26%, the British pound appreciated by 0.07%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.25%, and the Swiss franc appreciated by 0.03%. The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [29][32]. 3. Gold Trading - level Data Tracking - The gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR gold ETF holding remained flat at 1053 tons [34]. - The RMB exchange rate oscillated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 65.6 [37]. 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's December LPR. Tuesday: U.S. Q3 GDP. Wednesday: U.S. initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, with European and American markets closed or ending trading early. Thursday: Christmas, with European and American markets closed. Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [38].

格隆汇11月10日｜黄金期货延续涨势，回升至4,100美元关口上方。盛宝银行分析师表示："尽管债券收 益率再次上升，投资者仍愿意增加对贵金属的敞口。"市场参与者正在权衡美国经济走弱的迹象以及政 府停摆结束的进展。分析师称："政府重新开放将恢复数据流动并重燃对十二月降息的预期，但更重要 的是，它将市场焦点重新转移到不断恶化的美国财政前景。"交易员们也继续消化十二月降息的预期， 尽管美联储保持谨慎立场——这对于不生息的黄金来说将是一个特别有利的情景。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

宏观经济点评 就业市场走弱，通胀成为美联储降息关键掣肘 宏观研究团队 ——美国 7 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 7 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 7.3 万，低于市场预期；失 业率为 4.2%，符合市场预期；平均时薪同比增长 3.9%，高于市场预期。 新增非农就业下行较多，失业率上行，前值大幅下修 1. 新增非农就业超预期下行，且前值经历大幅下修 7 月美国新增非农就业 7.3 万人，较 6 月份初值（14.7 万）下降较多，且低于市 场预期的 10.4 万。5 月、6 月累计大幅下修 25.8 万，较为罕见 。趋势上看，近 3 个月平均新增就业 3.5 万人，下行斜率趋陡，美国劳动力市场出现了较为明显 的降温。结构上看，私人部门方面，商品制造减少了 1.3 万就业，教育和保健 服务、零售业新增就业较 6 月上升较多。政府就业在 7 月减少了 1.0 万， ...