美国StoneX的市场调查负责人罗娜·奥康奈尔：中美双方都理解彼此作为贸易伙伴的重要性， 最终将达成妥协。我认为不会再出现像4月宣布对等关税时那样的冲击。预计到12月底，金价 将朝着3000美元回落…… 9月2日，纽约黄金期货（主力合约月）和伦敦黄金现货价格均创出历史新高。日本经济新闻 （中文版：日经中文网）记者询问了专家对2025年底黄金现货价格的展望。 记者：金价的预期如何？ 罗娜·奥康奈尔 ： 预计到12月底，金价将向3000美元回落。地缘政治风险、美国降息、中央 银行购买黄金等仍将继续支撑金价，但许多因素在2023年下半年至2025年上半年的金价上涨 中得到消化。 罗娜·奥康奈尔（Rhona O'Connell） 美国关税政策的不确定性大部分已被市场考虑在内。中美双方都理解彼此作为贸易伙伴的重 要性，最终将达成妥协。我认为不会再出现像4月宣布对等关税时那样的冲击。 记者：美国的财政恶化不是金价的利好因素吗？ 罗娜·奥康奈尔 ： 是一个上涨因素，但以特朗普减税永久化为核心的大规模减税和支出法案 已于7月通过。这意味着不确定性消失了一项，不会成为市场走势上行的因素。关于债务上 限，共和党在两院中占据多数， ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of central banks and institutional investors shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold is strengthening, with expectations that this influx into gold will continue for decades due to increasing fiscal spending and money supply, which may devalue the dollar [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Trends - There has been a significant outflow of funds from U.S. long-term bond funds, amounting to approximately $10 billion from April to June, marking the largest outflow since the market turmoil in early 2020 [4]. - Investors are increasingly reconsidering their holdings in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and the potential for inflation [5][6]. - The traditional view of U.S. Treasury bonds as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios is changing, as both stocks and bonds have shown correlated declines during recent market shocks [6]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - The head of the securities department at the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry has successfully adjusted investment strategies to include gold, viewing it as a suitable asset to hedge against risks in both stocks and bonds [3]. - A report from the OMFIF indicates that one in three central banks plans to increase their gold holdings, signaling a cautious shift away from dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.26%, ranking it in the middle among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant rise of 5.58%, while industrial metals increased by 1.86% [1][14]. - The report highlights that tariff policies and a cooling U.S. Treasury auction have negatively impacted macroeconomic sentiment, leading to a weakening in industrial metals [1][24]. - Gold prices have surged due to deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions, with COMEX gold closing at $3,357.70 per ounce, a 4.75% increase week-on-week [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.26%, outperforming the index by 1.83 percentage points [14]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals led with a 5.58% increase, followed by industrial metals at 1.86%, while small metals and new materials declined [1][14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of May 23, LME copper was priced at $9,614 per ton, up 1.76% week-on-week. Supply remains tight due to mining incidents, but domestic smelting capacity is unaffected [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,466 per ton, down 0.62%. The supply side is impacted by the shutdown of bauxite mines in Guinea, leading to a significant rise in alumina prices [3][36]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc price increased by 0.78% to $2,713 per ton, with inventories decreasing [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin price fell by 0.46% to $32,665 per ton, with mixed inventory trends [45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly due to concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with a notable increase in both COMEX and SHFE gold prices [4][49]. - The report notes that the U.S. credit rating downgrade and a lackluster Treasury auction have further weakened market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [51][49]. Rare Earths - The report indicates stable supply and moderate demand for rare earths, with prices showing a slight decline [4]. News Highlights - The report discusses the implications of U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on the market, particularly in relation to gold and industrial metals [4][51].