Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a new "3 trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing gaps in service supply and to facilitate the transition towards a service-oriented economy [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article explores the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. post-tariff implementation, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It also discusses the significance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading up to the 2035 vision, outlining potential focus areas for development [10]. - The article addresses geopolitical risks, specifically regarding Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, and evaluates the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been on the rise, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite overall weak infrastructure construction activity [15]. - In the U.S., recent bond auctions have performed better than expected, while retail sales data for May fell short of projections, indicating mixed economic signals [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in the context of the new "three trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing investment gap in the service sector [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article analyzes the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It discusses the key areas of focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading to the 2035 vision, outlining the progress and potential priorities [10]. - The article addresses the implications of Iran's parliamentary decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, assessing the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been continuously rising, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite weak overall infrastructure construction [15]. - In the U.S., the recent bond auction performed better than expected, while retail sales in May fell short of forecasts, reflecting mixed economic signals [20]. - The article outlines various recent domestic policy initiatives aimed at enhancing financial market regulation and promoting digital currency operations, including the establishment of a personal credit agency and offshore trade financial services [22].

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year bonds, showing strong demand, particularly from overseas buyers [1] - The winning bid rate for the 30-year bonds was 4.844%, the highest since January, and lower than the pre-auction rate of 4.859% by 1.5 basis points [1] - The auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.43, the second highest since January, indicating robust interest [3] Auction Data Summary - Indirect bid ratio reached 65.2%, the highest since January, compared to 58.9% last month, reflecting strong foreign demand [2] - Direct bid ratio was 23.4%, lower than last month's 27.2% but above the recent average of 22.3%, indicating stable domestic demand [2] - Primary dealers' allocation was 11.4%, the lowest since November, suggesting sufficient buying interest without needing dealer support [2] Market Reaction - Following the auction results, the market reacted positively, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to a daily low of 4.34%, below levels prior to last week's strong non-farm payroll report [5] Long-term Supply Pressure - Despite the strong auction performance, the U.S. faces significant long-term bond supply pressure due to financing needs from large spending plans initiated during the Trump administration [6]

Group 1 - The recent 30-year Treasury bond auction by the U.S. Treasury raised $22 billion, with a yield of 4.844%, which is approximately 1.5 basis points lower than the market level before the auction, indicating strong demand despite slightly lower foreign participation [1] - Following the auction, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped to 4.839%, down from above 4.9% at the market open, suggesting that successful auctions typically lead to higher bond prices and lower market rates [1] - Foreign investors purchased 65.2% of the 30-year bonds, slightly below the average of 67.4% from the last six similar auctions, while the 10-year bond auction saw a foreign participation rate of 70.6%, lower than the average of 73.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the measurement of foreign demand may have technical biases, as "indirect bidders" are often seen as representatives of foreign investors, but some foreign buyers place orders directly through U.S. banks, which are not included in the "indirect bidder" statistics [2] - A more detailed report on investor classification will be released on June 24, which will provide a clearer picture of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - Despite the subdued foreign demand, "direct bidders," primarily domestic institutions, showed strong interest, supporting the recent 10-year and 30-year bond auctions amid increasing U.S. fiscal deficits and debt supply [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report aims to introduce the process of US Treasury bond auctions, participants, and observation indicators for the primary market liquidity of US Treasury bonds [3][4] Group 2: US Treasury Bond Auction Process - The US Treasury releases financing plans for the current and next quarters and auction sizes for the next three months around the end of January, April, July, and October each year [3][5] - The Treasury announces specific auction dates, terms, and amounts one day to one week in advance [3][5] - After the auction announcement, investors start pre - trading in the When - Issued market, which helps with price discovery and bond distribution [5] - On the auction day, investors can bid electronically through Treasury Direct or TAAPS systems, with competitive and non - competitive bids available [5] Group 3: Participants in the US Treasury Bond Primary Market - Participants include institutional and individual investors, divided into competitive (including direct and indirect bidders) and non - competitive bidders [3][7] - Direct bidders are institutions or individuals submitting bids directly, such as primary dealers, investment funds, and insurance companies [3][7] - Indirect bidders bid through direct bidders, including FIMA through the New York Fed [7] - Non - competitive bidders are mainly small investors and FIMA, with certain bid amount limits [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's SOMA reinvests in maturing US Treasury bonds through non - competitive bids at auctions, and its roll - over amount is not included in the announced auction amount [3][7] Group 4: US Treasury Bond Auction Categories and Frequencies - For 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y Treasury bonds, the Treasury issues them monthly; 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y bonds are issued quarterly; and Treasury bills with maturities less than 1Y are issued weekly [10] - Cash management bills are issued irregularly to meet the Treasury's temporary funding needs [10] - After the initial issuance, most bonds are reopened within the next two months to increase the bond's outstanding amount and liquidity [10][11] Group 5: Observation Indicators for US Treasury Bond Auction Demand - The bid - to - cover ratio, a higher ratio indicates strong investor demand, and it can be compared with the results of the last six auctions [13] - A high proportion of primary dealer allocations means insufficient demand from other investors, and their allocation share in Treasury auctions has been decreasing [15] - If the high yield is higher than the When - Issued yield (Tail), it shows insufficient auction demand; otherwise (Stop Through), it represents strong demand [17] - The indirect investor allocation ratio can reflect overseas investors' demand to some extent, and the Treasury publishes detailed investor category allocation information twice a month [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in global asset allocation, with a notable inflow into European equities and bonds, while Chinese equities are experiencing outflows, indicating a "seesaw" effect in the market dynamics [1][3][41]. Market Review - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 has significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to an increase in global stock indices [10][41]. - The 20-year US Treasury auction on May 22 was poorly received, with the final yield surpassing 5%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure [1][10]. Global Asset Performance - In May, equity assets generally rose, while US Treasury yields increased and the dollar weakened. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 24 basis points [2][13]. - Gold prices increased by 2.1%, and Brent crude oil rose by 1.7% during the same period [2][13]. Global Fund Flows - In May, there was a significant inflow of $215 billion into global money market funds, with developed market equities receiving $305 billion, while emerging market equities saw an outflow of $83 billion [3][20]. - Developed European fixed income and equity funds attracted inflows of $190 billion and $247 billion, respectively, indicating stronger performance compared to the US [3][20]. China Market Dynamics - By the end of May, global equity funds experienced an outflow of $88.5 billion from China, a reversal from the inflow of $198.3 billion in April [4][41]. - The outflow was primarily driven by passive ETFs, which saw a withdrawal of $82.5 billion in May compared to an inflow of $203.9 billion in April [4][41]. - In terms of sector performance, there was a significant inflow into technology, real estate, and materials, while telecommunications, consumer staples, and healthcare saw outflows [4][41]. Country Allocation - Global market funds reduced their allocation to US equities by 1.0 percentage points in April, while increasing allocations to European equities [5][41]. - The allocation to China remains stable at 26.4%, indicating potential for further growth [5][41]. Emerging Markets - Emerging market funds saw a decrease in allocation to Chinese equities, with a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to March, while the allocation to Indian equities also decreased [5][41]. - In May, emerging market equity funds experienced a net outflow of $45 billion, with China being the primary contributor to this outflow [43][46].

Group 1 - The upcoming auction of $22 billion in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a critical test of market confidence amid rising long-term bond yields and concerns over U.S. fiscal health [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has been labeled the "least popular bond" as investor confidence in long-term debt wanes, with yields reaching a near 20-year high of 5.15% last month [2] - The rapid expansion of U.S. debt and deficits is identified as a key driver behind the rising yields, leading to a perception that long-term U.S. Treasuries are increasingly influenced by political factors rather than monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Despite prevailing concerns, there is potential for a turnaround as some investors find the 5% yield level attractive for purchasing 30-year bonds [3] - The U.S. Treasury will also auction $58 billion in 3-year bonds and $39 billion in 10-year bonds, with overall demand providing further insights into market sentiment [3] - The expectation is for a steeper yield curve, with short-term rates potentially declining if economic data weakens, while long-term rates remain pressured by deficits and a weak dollar outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Treasury auction fell short of expectations, leading to increased safe-haven demand for gold, raising questions about whether the current pullback in gold prices represents an opportunity or a risk [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auction results were disappointing, which has contributed to a rise in safe-haven sentiment towards gold [1] - There is a noted weakening in buying interest for gold during the Asian trading session, prompting discussions on market dynamics [1] - Analysts are debating whether the current price retracement in gold is a buying opportunity or a signal of potential risk [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices were boosted by factors related to the weakening of the US dollar's credit, including the potential tax bill by the Trump administration and the results of US Treasury auctions [2][3]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit during the Trump administration is a positive factor for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai Gold, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold expected to trade in the range of 756 - 809 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver requires a clear dovish stance from the Federal Reserve to have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with the main contract of Shanghai Silver expected to trade in the range of 7944 - 8380 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data 3.1 Price and Yield Data - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.92% to 777.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.86% to 8285.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.33% to 3324.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 33.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.58%, and the US dollar index was 99.64 [2]. - In the table of precious metal price data, prices of various gold and silver products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Data on Gold and Silver Contracts - For COMEX gold on May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3316.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.73% from the previous day; the trading volume was 22.61 million lots, up 2.09%; the open interest was 44.08 million lots, down 2.56% [6]. - For COMEX silver on May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 33.58 dollars/ounce, up 0.95% from the previous day; the open interest was 13.83 million lots, down 1.43%; the inventory was 15570 tons, down 0.09% [6]. 3.3 Data on ETF Holdings - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.72 tons to 919.88 tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 14054.89 tons [4]. 3.4 Spread Data - On May 21, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 31.1035 yuan/gram (7.96 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 0.14 yuan/gram (- 0.61 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 468.78 yuan/kilogram (2.02 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread for silver was 506.43 yuan/kilogram (2.19 dollars/ounce) [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, it is recommended to buy IF index long contracts on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [2][3][4]. - The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the deposit rate cut by large banks may lead to deposits flowing to non - banks. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold, and it is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and external policies, and different price trends and trading suggestions are presented [10][11][12]. - For energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, production, and inventory affect their prices, and corresponding trading strategies are given [34][38][40]. - For agricultural products, the prices are affected by factors such as production, supply and demand, and policies, and trading strategies are also proposed [51][52][53]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1173.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The margin trading balance increased by 2.254 billion yuan [2]. - **Macro News**: Shanghai will promote state - owned listed companies to improve market value management systems; many joint - stock banks cut deposit rates; Japan may accept US tariff cuts, and India and the US are discussing a trade agreement [2]. - **Valuation**: The price - earnings ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. are 12.65, 29.04, etc.; the price - to - book ratios are 1.32, 1.79, etc.; the dividend yields are 3.44%, 1.81%, etc. [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, buy IF index long contracts on dips [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The TL main contract fell 0.08%, the T main contract was flat, the TF main contract rose 0.03%, and the TS main contract rose 0.02% [5]. - **News**: China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the FTA 3.0 version. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.92%, Shanghai silver rose 0.86%, etc. [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.71%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated and declined, with LME aluminum down 0.22%. The consumption season is light, and the price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for domestic aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc rose 0.76%. The zinc concentrate market is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead rose 0.28%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price is strong [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the price is bearish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose 1.13%. The supply is expected to loosen, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate was flat. The supply and demand lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The reference range for the 2507 contract is 60400 - 61800 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.55%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to supply disturbances. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel rose 0.23%. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar rose 0.098%, and the price of hot - rolled coil rose 0.281%. The demand for plates and exports may strengthen marginally in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rose 0.48%. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass decreased, and the price of soda ash was flat. The glass price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The price of manganese silicon rose 0.24%, and the price of ferrosilicon fell 0.32%. It is recommended to wait and see for both, as the demand is expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell 0.94%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish view and operate short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][37]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of WTI crude oil fell 2.04%, and the price of Brent crude oil fell 1.55%. It is considered that the oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol rose. The supply is weakening, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity [40]. - **Urea**: The price of urea rose. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on dips after a significant pullback [41]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The inventory is decreasing, and the price may be affected by supply and demand changes. Short - term risks need attention [43][44]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [45]. - **Para - xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [46]. - **Polyethylene**: The price of polyethylene was flat. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene**: The price of polypropylene rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is expected to be volatile and bearish [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs was stable. The short - term price may be stable, and the medium - term is bearish. It is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs was stable or decreased. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal was volatile. The short - term supply is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [53][55]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats was affected by multiple factors. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [56][58]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international supply is improving, and the domestic price may weaken [59]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton rose. The market confidence is boosted, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [60][61].