上述低于预期的11月CPI和核心CPI数据表明美国经济的通货膨胀反弹压力没有预期的那么大，通货膨胀数据仍然处于 下行通道。这在一定程度上支撑美联储在明年1月继续下调美国联邦基金利率水平。 同时公布的美国至12月13日当周初请失业金人数为22.4万人，较前值23.7万人有所改善。 12月18日公布的数据显示，美国11月CPI年率为2.7%，低于预期值3.1%。同时公布的美国11月核心CPI年率为2.6%，也 低于预期值3%。 笔者认为，美联储在明年1月的议息会议上继续降息的可能性在上升，但是这仍然需要观察未来的一些重要的经济数 据，特别是就业市场的数据是否进一步恶化。 然而，近期公布的美国消费者信心指数不仅处于低位，还有进一步下行的趋势，这给美国经济的前景带来了很大的不确 定性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准确信息， 请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 最新公布的美国12月费城联储制造业指数从前值-1.7大幅下降至-10.2。这进一步反映出美国制造业的不景气。 尽管美国制造业不景气已经是不争的事实，但是美国经济总 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a continuation of the easing cycle initiated in 2024 [1][3] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with a decrease in new job creation and increasing downside risks to employment [1][3] - The Federal Reserve forecasts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, followed by 25 basis points cuts in each of the next two years [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for the rate cut were already established, primarily driven by weak employment data indicating a deteriorating labor market [3] - Despite the employment challenges, inflation data shows resilience, requiring the Federal Reserve to balance monetary policy to support the job market [3] - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 172.85 points to 46,315.27, a 0.37% increase [3] Group 3 - International spot gold prices surged, breaking above $3,700 per ounce, driven by expectations of further rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and strong investment demand [5] - Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,000 per ounce, citing strong central bank demand and potential dollar weakness [5] - The rate cut is expected to benefit three key areas: gold assets, Hong Kong tech stocks, and A-share tech stocks, with the latter two likely to see valuation recovery due to external liquidity and domestic policy support [5]

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US labor market and economic outlook, particularly in relation to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Softening**: The US labor market has shown signs of softening, with weak employment reports for July and August and a significant negative benchmark revision. Job growth is now estimated at just 25,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [3][6][11]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points in the last two months, reaching 4.3%. A broader measure of labor market slack indicates further softening [7][9]. - **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP is expected to grow at a below-potential pace in the second half of 2025, with a forecasted unemployment rate of 4.5%. A rebound towards potential growth is anticipated in 2026 as tariff effects diminish and fiscal measures provide support [11][24]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is viewed as a two-part story, with a moderate tariff effect and an underlying trend expected to decrease towards the target. Core inflation is projected to modestly increase to 3.2% by December [14][15]. - **FOMC Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is expected to implement three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with potential for a 50 basis point cut if labor market conditions worsen more rapidly than anticipated [4][33]. Additional Important Details - **Future Rate Projections**: The median dot plot is expected to show two cuts in 2025 to a rate of 3.875%, with further cuts projected in subsequent years [28][29]. - **Economic Projections**: The FOMC's economic projections from June are likely to remain largely unchanged, with GDP growth at 1.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and core PCE inflation at 3.1% for 2025 [24][26]. - **Market Reactions**: The FOMC's acknowledgment of labor market softening in its statement may signal to investors the likelihood of further cuts, as historical patterns suggest consecutive cuts are often implemented to address immediate economic issues [18][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC preview, highlighting the current state of the US labor market, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and anticipated monetary policy actions.

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. June PCE price index year-on-year increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, suggesting a slight rebound in inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its decision to restart interest rate cuts [2] - The June core PCE price index year-on-year remained stable at 2.8%, while the month-on-month index rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The article suggests that despite the inflation rebound, the U.S. economy is facing weak growth and potential further decline, which could lead to negative impacts if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for an extended period [2] Group 2 - The author expresses skepticism about a significant rebound in U.S. inflation, emphasizing that the greater risk lies in economic downturns, which could render any accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve ineffective [2] - A severe deterioration in the U.S. economy could lead to increased volatility in the stock market and have ripple effects on major global economies [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the recent U.S. CPI data shows inflation is not exhibiting a significant rebound trend, suggesting a steady decline, which supports the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in the upcoming June meeting [2] - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year increased slightly from 2.3% to 2.4%, but fell short of the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month CPI decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%, also below the expected 0.2% [2] - The core CPI year-on-year remained unchanged at 2.8%, not rising to the anticipated 2.9%, while the month-on-month core CPI dropped from 0.2% to 0.1%, failing to meet the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, despite the supportive inflation data, raises market skepticism about the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts in the upcoming meeting [2] - Concerns regarding President Trump's tariff policies potentially causing significant inflationary pressures in the future are cited as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates [2] - The argument is made that restarting the rate cut process could lower corporate financing costs and reduce future U.S. Treasury interest costs, alleviating the burden of national debt and fiscal deficit issues [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, and the impact of inflation data on currency trading dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On April 11, the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar rose to the range of 142 yen per dollar, surpassing the previous high of 143.99 yen on April 9, marking the largest appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar since early September 2024 [1]. - The market has seen an increased tendency to sell the dollar compared to other major currencies due to heightened vigilance regarding US-China trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Trade Tariffs and Economic Indicators - The US announced an additional tariff rate of 145% on China, which is an increase from the previously stated 125% by President Trump, based on a 20% extra tariff that took effect in February and March [1]. - In retaliation, China implemented an 84% additional tariff on US goods, further escalating the trade conflict [2]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below market expectations of 2.6%, alleviating some concerns regarding inflation in the US and contributing to the trend of selling the dollar [2].