本文字数：1670，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程 加拿大将从9月1日起取消对符合《美墨加贸易协定》（USMCA）的美国商品征收的25%的报复性 关税。 加拿大总理卡尼近日表示，上述措施是与美国对加拿大商品降低关税的对应措施。加拿大目前将专注 于帮助那些面临高额关税的行业，如钢铁、铝、汽车和木材等，并为美国政府对USMCA的正式审查 做准备。 2025.08. 25 特朗普7月31日签署一项行政命令，将部分加拿大商品的关税提高至35%，并于8月1日凌晨生效。 但是这一关税不包括《美加墨协定》覆盖的产品。自关税战爆发以来，加拿大政府已三次对美国商品 征收报复性关税，包括对价值600亿加元的美国商品征收关税，以及对美国汽车加征额外关税。 上海国际问题研究院外交政策研究所所长牛海彬此前对第一财经记者表示，加墨两国（尤其是加拿 大）若在农产品和能源领域实施关税报复，可能对美国经济产生实质性影响，但从两国当前表态来 看，加墨两国更倾向通过向特朗普政府展示在芬太尼领域管控方面的进展和努力，以换取较低的关税 税率。 6月5日，加拿大温哥华港口集装箱码头拍摄的集装箱船和货柜。（图源：新华社） 加拿大小企业难支撑 ...

Group 1 - President Trump indicated a likely implementation of a unified tariff of 15% to 20% on countries without bilateral trade agreements by August 1 [1] - This statement suggests a significant increase from the previously proposed 10% baseline tariff, signaling a tougher stance from the Trump administration on non-trade agreement countries [1] - Trump emphasized the need for a unified tariff to simplify trade negotiations and protect domestic manufacturing and labor [1] Group 2 - Recent actions include a 15% import tax on Japan and a similar tariff on most European goods, indicating a shift in the U.S. global trade stance [2] - The proposed unified tax rate aligns closely with recent agreements, potentially simplifying trade management but risking retaliatory tariffs and escalating global trade tensions [2] - Critics warn that high tariffs could lead to increased prices, disrupted supply chains, and negatively impact U.S. competitiveness in the global supply system [2]

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariff negotiations, reducing the US's "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan will increase imports of US rice under the current "minimum access system" [1] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion in the US, focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, natural gas, and new shipbuilding facilities [1] - The EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate on most products, with EU officials pushing to include sectors like automobiles [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that the US-Japan trade agreement enhances the likelihood of Japan's economic performance aligning with the central bank's forecasts, although there is still "extremely high" uncertainty in the economy [1] - The US National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% decline in June's existing home sales, reaching an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest in nine months [2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 2% year-over-year to $435,300 [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is nearing the end of a grace period for "reciprocal tariffs," prompting several countries to accelerate trade negotiations with the U.S. before the August 1 deadline [1] - South Korea has set a "red line" in its trade negotiations with the U.S., refusing to further open its beef and rice markets as bargaining chips [1] - South Korea remains the largest importer of U.S. beef, purchasing $2.22 billion worth in 2024, while the U.S. accounts for 32% of South Korea's rice import quota [1] Group 2 - India is facing challenges in reaching a temporary trade agreement with the U.S. by August 1, particularly regarding the reduction of tariffs on key agricultural products and dairy [2] - India has firmly rejected U.S. demands to lower dairy tariffs, maintaining its right to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports under WTO rules [2] - Malaysia is seeking to negotiate a reduction in the upcoming 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S., aiming to align closer to the 20% tariffs applicable to Indonesia and Vietnam [2][3] Group 3 - Malaysia's Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry expressed optimism about reaching a tax reduction agreement but warned against the risks of hasty agreements [3]

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar has depreciated against the US dollar by 0.09%, currently trading at 1.3709 [1] - Bank of Canada Governor Carney commented on the potential for retaliatory tariffs against the US, stating "let's wait and see" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Brazil's potential retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. could lead to greater economic losses for Brazil, particularly affecting GDP growth rates [1] Economic Impact - The proposed 50% tariffs by Trump, set to take effect next month, could reduce Brazil's GDP growth rate by approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points [1] - The implementation of retaliatory measures may further worsen the impact on economic activity and inflation in Brazil [1] Uncertainty of Response - There is currently uncertainty regarding whether Brazil will retaliate, and if so, how and when such measures will be enacted [1]

Group 1 - The Indian government has submitted a notification to the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. for imposing a 25% tariff on Indian exports of passenger cars, light trucks, and certain auto parts [1] - The U.S. tariffs are estimated to impact approximately $2.895 billion of Indian exports, resulting in an additional cost of about $723.75 million in tariffs for Indian exporters [1] - India argues that the U.S. measures violate WTO rules, specifically the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the Safeguards Agreement, constituting discriminatory trade restrictions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government announced a 26% tariff on all Indian goods, with a 90-day grace period for trade negotiations, which is approaching its deadline on July 9 [2] - If no agreement is reached, the U.S. will impose the 26% tariff on 87% of Indian exports, affecting $4.5 billion in exports [2] - The Indian Minister of Commerce has stated that trade negotiations are not bound by the U.S. deadline, emphasizing that any agreement must align with India's interests [2] Group 3 - The recent notification to the WTO by India is seen as a strategic move to strengthen its position in ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [2] - Both countries are striving to reach a phased agreement before the deadline, but key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding agriculture and dairy products [2] - If negotiations fail, India may formally initiate dispute resolution procedures at the WTO [2]

Core Points - The Indian government has set "red lines" in trade negotiations with the U.S. regarding genetically modified crops, dairy products, and the automotive industry, indicating a cautious approach due to increasing political pressure [1][2] - The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether India faces a 26% tariff from the U.S., which could significantly impact India's exports and economy [1] - India has communicated its unwillingness to allow U.S. exports of genetically modified crops and to open its dairy and automotive sectors to U.S. competition [2] Group 1: Negotiation Stance - The Indian government, led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, emphasizes that trade negotiations will prioritize national interests and will not be bound by deadlines [1] - India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stated that agriculture and dairy are critical red lines in the trade talks, asserting that the government will not compromise the status of domestic farmers [1][3] Group 2: Domestic Political Pressure - There is significant domestic political pressure on the Indian government from opposition parties and farmer groups, warning against excessive concessions to the U.S. [3] - Farmers, who are a key voter base for Modi's party, are concerned that genetically modified crops could harm their livelihoods, with warnings from farmer group representatives about the economic impact [3] - The opposition party, Congress, expresses skepticism about the government's ability to resist U.S. demands, with leaders predicting that Modi will yield to U.S. tariff deadlines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. government, with a focus on the potential economic impacts and the ongoing trade negotiations with various countries [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Negotiations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that President Trump will send letters to trade partners regarding planned tariff rates, with a deadline for negotiations extended to August 1 if no agreement is reached [1][4]. - The new tariffs are expected to range from 10% to 70%, and the U.S. government is focusing on negotiations with 18 major trade partners [5][9]. - The deadline of July 9 for reaching agreements has been emphasized as critical, with the potential for tariffs to revert to levels established on April 2 if no agreements are made [5][8]. Group 2: Market and Economic Impact - The potential for tariffs to remain unchanged could lead to a 1.5% decline in economic growth, which the stock market has not yet fully priced in [1][6]. - Current market sentiment is uncertain, with expectations that the tariff suspension will either be extended or a base rate of 10% will be implemented [7][8]. - The actual economic impact of tariffs may have a lag effect, as importers are currently absorbing costs without passing them on to consumers, which could lead to an increase in inflation from 2.4% to 3.1% over the next 12 months [8][9]. Group 3: International Trade Relations - India has taken a hard stance, indicating it will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, while South Korea is seeking to extend negotiation timelines [9]. - The European Union is engaged in ongoing negotiations with the U.S., with significant trade implications for the EU economy, particularly given the high tariffs on key exports [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is setting new deadlines for "reciprocal tariffs," with tariffs set to take effect on August 1, and the President is currently determining the tariff rates and agreements [1][3] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that the President will send letters to trade partners regarding the planned tariffs, with a potential extension of negotiations for three weeks if no agreement is reached [1][3] - The market has not fully absorbed the potential risks associated with the tariffs, with predictions that if tariffs remain unchanged, economic growth could decline by 1.5% [1][5] Group 2 - The Trump administration is focusing negotiations on 18 major trading partners, with several important agreements nearing completion despite delays from counterparts [4] - The market is facing uncertainty as the deadline approaches, with expectations that the suspension of retaliatory tariffs will either be extended or a base rate of 10% will be implemented [5][6] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may have a lagging effect, as importers are currently absorbing costs by compressing profit margins rather than passing them on to consumers [5][6] Group 3 - International trade negotiations are complex, with India adopting a tougher stance and threatening retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods, while South Korea seeks to extend negotiation deadlines [6] - The European Union is negotiating a framework trade agreement with the U.S., with high tariffs on basic goods, automobiles, and steel potentially impacting economic growth in Europe [6]