今日周二(2月10日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于20424一线上方，今日开盘于20500元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报20507元/千克，上涨3.09%，最高触及20963元/千克，最低下探20103元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 另外，美国零售销售数据的发布将在周二成为焦点。预计该数据将显示12月份环比增长0.4%，而11月 份为0.6%。任何美国劳动力市场疲软和通胀放缓的迹象都可能在短期内支撑白银。 在越来越多的人接受美国中央银行今年将再降息两次的背景下，首次降息预计在6月进行，美元跌至超 过一周的低点。这反过来又为无收益的白银提供了顺风，并限制了其损失。交易者现在关注本周重要的 美国宏观数据发布，以获取有关美联储降息路径的更多线索。 美国非农就业数据将于本周三公布，根据彭博对经济学家的调查中值预测，1月非农就业人数可能增加 6.9万人；失业率预计维持在4.4%，略低于去年11月触及的4.5%的四年高点。 除了常规的月度非农就业和失业率数据外，将于本周三公布的1月就业报告还将包含备受关注的就业数 据修订。此前的初步估计显示，截至2 ...

宏观数据方面，美国2026年1月就业与通胀报告都将在下周发布，或将给市场研判美联储政策趋势提供重要参 考。目前分析师对1月非农就业增长的预期集中在6万—8万区间，若低于这个数字将刺激降息预期升温。据 CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概率为76.8%。 美联储官员释放重磅政策信号。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）最新表示，美联储可能还需要进行1次或2次降息，以应对美国劳 动力市场的疲软状况。另外，美联储副主席杰斐逊也警告称，美国就业市场存在突然走弱的可能性。 她表示，如果企业发现预期需求未能实现，劳动力市场中解雇现象可能开始增多，但鉴于通胀预期保持稳定， 她并不认为通胀会大幅升温。 美联储官员发声 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以应对 美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。 她指出，当前美国劳动者处境艰难，因为物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会稀缺。 "在利率问题上，我认为我们必须保持开放的态度，非常开放的态度。" 戴利于当地时间2月6日在接受媒体采 访时表示。这是她自上月底美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates an unexpected decrease in private sector jobs in the U.S. for November, heightening expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting [2][7]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Spot gold is trading around $4207 per ounce, while silver has reached a historic high of $58.95 per ounce, supported by silver's strong performance, which has increased over 100% this year [2][7]. - The strong performance of silver is attributed to supply shortages, liquidity concerns, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, which has also led to slight increases in platinum and palladium prices [2][7]. - The probability of a rate cut next week is nearly 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, as investors await the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key inflation indicator preferred by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. services index remains stable, with the ISM report showing a non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 52.6 for November, slightly above October's 52.4, indicating ongoing labor market weakness and rising input prices [2][7]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been fluctuating downwards, retreating from a high of 4.1800 to a low of 4.1000, before rebounding to around 4.0749% on December 4, which has stimulated the upward trend in gold prices [2][7]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The recent analysis suggests that the labor market is a driving force behind Federal Reserve policy, and if negative interpretations persist, more rate cuts may occur within the next 12 months, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and potentially driving its price higher [8]. - Short-term trading strategies may focus on buying on dips, while longer-term strategies are available through membership services [3][9].

Core Insights - The September non-farm payroll report, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is expected to be the last reliable employment data for the coming months due to disruptions in data collection and analysis [1] - Economists predict an addition of 50,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. If these predictions hold true, 2025 could become the weakest year for U.S. job growth since the pandemic and the global financial crisis [1] - The current labor market's weakness is anticipated to persist, as noted by economists from Indeed Hiring Lab [1] - Any disappointing data in the current context may be exacerbated due to a six-week data vacuum, according to a senior economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics [1]

Core Insights - The current federal data blackout is leading to reliance on Wall Street numbers and surveys, which indicate a consistent trend: a lack of hiring among companies [1] Group 1 - The absence of federal data is creating a gap that Wall Street metrics are attempting to fill [1] - Non-governmental data is corroborating the narrative that few companies are expanding their workforce [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is facing additional strain due to an unprecedented government shutdown, which may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts amid data interruptions [1][7] - The Trump administration is utilizing the government shutdown crisis to advance a second round of large-scale federal employee layoffs, with expectations of a reduction of hundreds of thousands of federal employees by the end of the year [1][4] - Approximately 154,000 federal employees have accepted the Deferred Resignation Plan, with about 100,000 already removed from the government payroll [3][4] Group 2 - The government has implemented hiring freezes, forced layoffs, and voluntary departure programs, contributing to the overall reduction in federal employment [4][5] - The current government shutdown is expected to temporarily lay off around 750,000 employees, with the White House threatening permanent cuts related to the shutdown [6] - The lack of key economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy-making, as they are unable to assess labor market and price dynamics effectively [7][8] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that even with inflation rates above target, the Federal Reserve may prioritize cushioning the labor market from further shocks [9]

Core Insights - In September 2023, the U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and significantly below the market expectation of an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs [1] Employment Data - The data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) indicates a notable contraction in the job market, contrasting with previous expectations of job growth [1] - The U.S. Labor Department was scheduled to release the non-farm payroll report on October 3, but due to the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations during the funding interruption [1] Economic Implications - Some economic analysts predict that if the U.S. labor market continues to show weakness, the Federal Reserve may announce another interest rate cut in October [1]

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US labor market and economic outlook, particularly in relation to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Softening**: The US labor market has shown signs of softening, with weak employment reports for July and August and a significant negative benchmark revision. Job growth is now estimated at just 25,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [3][6][11]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points in the last two months, reaching 4.3%. A broader measure of labor market slack indicates further softening [7][9]. - **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP is expected to grow at a below-potential pace in the second half of 2025, with a forecasted unemployment rate of 4.5%. A rebound towards potential growth is anticipated in 2026 as tariff effects diminish and fiscal measures provide support [11][24]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is viewed as a two-part story, with a moderate tariff effect and an underlying trend expected to decrease towards the target. Core inflation is projected to modestly increase to 3.2% by December [14][15]. - **FOMC Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is expected to implement three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with potential for a 50 basis point cut if labor market conditions worsen more rapidly than anticipated [4][33]. Additional Important Details - **Future Rate Projections**: The median dot plot is expected to show two cuts in 2025 to a rate of 3.875%, with further cuts projected in subsequent years [28][29]. - **Economic Projections**: The FOMC's economic projections from June are likely to remain largely unchanged, with GDP growth at 1.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and core PCE inflation at 3.1% for 2025 [24][26]. - **Market Reactions**: The FOMC's acknowledgment of labor market softening in its statement may signal to investors the likelihood of further cuts, as historical patterns suggest consecutive cuts are often implemented to address immediate economic issues [18][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC preview, highlighting the current state of the US labor market, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and anticipated monetary policy actions.

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell's political shift may lead to a larger-than-expected rate cut in September, potentially 50 basis points, and a total of 100 basis points for the year[4] - The labor market's weakness, with nearly negative job growth over the past four months, will be a key focus for the Fed in September[3] - A significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls provides Powell with a data-driven justification for a substantial rate cut[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate of 4.3% carries considerable upward risk, indicating a potential inflection point in the labor market[24] - The median probability of finding a job within three months has dropped from 50.7% to 44.9%, marking the lowest level since June 2013[24] - Non-farm payrolls were revised down by 91.1 thousand, representing 0.6% of total employment, which is double the average revision over the past decade[21] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's dovish turn is seen as a political maneuver to demonstrate loyalty to Trump, rather than a purely economic assessment[6] - The political landscape is complicated by Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could undermine the Fed's credibility[9] - The composition of the Fed Board may shift, with at least 2-3 votes supporting a 50 basis point cut if Cook is unable to participate in the September FOMC meeting[11]

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [3] - President Trump has expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and has threatened to remove him from his position [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5][6] - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 106,000 jobs added in July [5] - The weak labor market data has led to a decline in U.S. stock indices, a drop in the dollar index, and a significant increase in gold futures prices [5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]