（来源：金砖汇通） 现货黄金交投于4207美元/盎司附近，白银则再创历史新高至58.95美元/盎司，市场焦点在于，最新公布的ADP就业报告显示美国11月私营部门就 业岗位意外减少，这增强了市场对美联储可能在下周政策会议上降息的预期。 首先，分析指出，白银的强势表现（今年以来已上涨逾一倍）对黄金构成了支撑，同时其自身也受到供应短缺、流动性担忧及被列入美国关键矿 物清单等因素推动，铂金和钯金价格均小幅上涨。 其次，根据芝商所FedWatch工具，交易员目前押注下周降息的概率接近90%。投资者正等待周五将公布的、美联储偏好的关键通胀指标——个人 消费支出（PCE）数据，以获取更多政策线索。 第三，与此同时，美国服务业指数的持平表现进一步佐证了劳动力市场的疲软。供应管理协会（ISM）报告显示，11月份非制造业采购经理人指 数为52.6，仅略高于10月份的52.4，这表明服务业活动虽保持稳定，但就业低迷和投入品价格上涨的压力并未缓解。 第四，美国10年期国债收益率连续震荡下跌，从相对高点4.1800开始承压回落，触及4.1000的相对低点后再次反弹，12月04日早间收在4.0749%附 近，对黄金目期的涨势起到刺激作用 ...

Core Insights - The September non-farm payroll report, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is expected to be the last reliable employment data for the coming months due to disruptions in data collection and analysis [1] - Economists predict an addition of 50,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. If these predictions hold true, 2025 could become the weakest year for U.S. job growth since the pandemic and the global financial crisis [1] - The current labor market's weakness is anticipated to persist, as noted by economists from Indeed Hiring Lab [1] - Any disappointing data in the current context may be exacerbated due to a six-week data vacuum, according to a senior economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics [1]

Core Insights - The current federal data blackout is leading to reliance on Wall Street numbers and surveys, which indicate a consistent trend: a lack of hiring among companies [1] Group 1 - The absence of federal data is creating a gap that Wall Street metrics are attempting to fill [1] - Non-governmental data is corroborating the narrative that few companies are expanding their workforce [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is facing additional strain due to an unprecedented government shutdown, which may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts amid data interruptions [1][7] - The Trump administration is utilizing the government shutdown crisis to advance a second round of large-scale federal employee layoffs, with expectations of a reduction of hundreds of thousands of federal employees by the end of the year [1][4] - Approximately 154,000 federal employees have accepted the Deferred Resignation Plan, with about 100,000 already removed from the government payroll [3][4] Group 2 - The government has implemented hiring freezes, forced layoffs, and voluntary departure programs, contributing to the overall reduction in federal employment [4][5] - The current government shutdown is expected to temporarily lay off around 750,000 employees, with the White House threatening permanent cuts related to the shutdown [6] - The lack of key economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy-making, as they are unable to assess labor market and price dynamics effectively [7][8] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that even with inflation rates above target, the Federal Reserve may prioritize cushioning the labor market from further shocks [9]

Core Insights - In September 2023, the U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and significantly below the market expectation of an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs [1] Employment Data - The data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) indicates a notable contraction in the job market, contrasting with previous expectations of job growth [1] - The U.S. Labor Department was scheduled to release the non-farm payroll report on October 3, but due to the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations during the funding interruption [1] Economic Implications - Some economic analysts predict that if the U.S. labor market continues to show weakness, the Federal Reserve may announce another interest rate cut in October [1]

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US labor market and economic outlook, particularly in relation to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Softening**: The US labor market has shown signs of softening, with weak employment reports for July and August and a significant negative benchmark revision. Job growth is now estimated at just 25,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [3][6][11]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points in the last two months, reaching 4.3%. A broader measure of labor market slack indicates further softening [7][9]. - **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP is expected to grow at a below-potential pace in the second half of 2025, with a forecasted unemployment rate of 4.5%. A rebound towards potential growth is anticipated in 2026 as tariff effects diminish and fiscal measures provide support [11][24]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is viewed as a two-part story, with a moderate tariff effect and an underlying trend expected to decrease towards the target. Core inflation is projected to modestly increase to 3.2% by December [14][15]. - **FOMC Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is expected to implement three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with potential for a 50 basis point cut if labor market conditions worsen more rapidly than anticipated [4][33]. Additional Important Details - **Future Rate Projections**: The median dot plot is expected to show two cuts in 2025 to a rate of 3.875%, with further cuts projected in subsequent years [28][29]. - **Economic Projections**: The FOMC's economic projections from June are likely to remain largely unchanged, with GDP growth at 1.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and core PCE inflation at 3.1% for 2025 [24][26]. - **Market Reactions**: The FOMC's acknowledgment of labor market softening in its statement may signal to investors the likelihood of further cuts, as historical patterns suggest consecutive cuts are often implemented to address immediate economic issues [18][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC preview, highlighting the current state of the US labor market, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and anticipated monetary policy actions.

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell's political shift may lead to a larger-than-expected rate cut in September, potentially 50 basis points, and a total of 100 basis points for the year[4] - The labor market's weakness, with nearly negative job growth over the past four months, will be a key focus for the Fed in September[3] - A significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls provides Powell with a data-driven justification for a substantial rate cut[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate of 4.3% carries considerable upward risk, indicating a potential inflection point in the labor market[24] - The median probability of finding a job within three months has dropped from 50.7% to 44.9%, marking the lowest level since June 2013[24] - Non-farm payrolls were revised down by 91.1 thousand, representing 0.6% of total employment, which is double the average revision over the past decade[21] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's dovish turn is seen as a political maneuver to demonstrate loyalty to Trump, rather than a purely economic assessment[6] - The political landscape is complicated by Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could undermine the Fed's credibility[9] - The composition of the Fed Board may shift, with at least 2-3 votes supporting a 50 basis point cut if Cook is unable to participate in the September FOMC meeting[11]

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [3] - President Trump has expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and has threatened to remove him from his position [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5][6] - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 106,000 jobs added in July [5] - The weak labor market data has led to a decline in U.S. stock indices, a drop in the dollar index, and a significant increase in gold futures prices [5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [1] - President Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, criticizing the current chair Jerome Powell for not complying with his requests [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Group 2 - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 68,000, indicating a weakening labor market [4] - Market predictions suggest a 99% chance of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to shift focus from inflation to the labor market due to the weak employment data, with potential rate cuts in September and December [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [1] - The market is anticipating a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, according to market prediction platforms [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market, with potential rate cuts in September, October, and December, and possibly a larger cut in early 2026 if labor market conditions worsen [2]