In a federal data blackout, Wall Street numbers and surveys are filling the void, and the nongovernment numbers are telling the same basic story: few companies are hiring. ...

美国劳动力市场的疲态，正因一场史无前例的政府关门而雪上加霜，或迫使美联储在数据中断的情况下降息。 特朗普政府正利用政府关门危机推进第二轮大规模联邦雇员裁减计划，这一策略被视为马斯克政府效率部门(DOGE)失败后的重新尝试。 由于招聘冻结、裁员 和自愿离职，政府预计今年年底联邦雇员人数将减少数十万。 Vought接棒马斯克，开启DOGE 2.0 在马斯克领导的政府效率部门遭遇挫折后，特朗普政府现在通过预算主任Russell Vought推进第二轮裁员计划。第一轮中，DOGE大裁员极不受欢迎且具有破 坏性，导致共和党在威斯康星州特别选举中败北，并迫使马斯克离开白宫。 政府关门为特朗普提供了"第二次机会"，通过Vought实施更激进的裁员措施。白宫已暗示要超越简单的强制休假，进行永久性裁员，尽管这些措施在法律上存 在争议。 据无党派的国会预算办公室称，当前的政府关门预计将临时解雇约75万人。与此前不同，白宫这次威胁要永久性裁减与关门相关的额外雇员。 与此同时，政府关门造成关键经济数据延期发布，包括9月非农就业报告，以及CPI通胀数据。 分析师警告，随着私人部门9月就业岗位减少3.2万个，叠加政 府雇员大规模离职，美 ...

一些经济分析师预期，如果美国劳动力市场继续疲软，美国联邦储备委员会10月可能再次宣布降息。 美国劳工部原定于10月3日公布9月份非农业部门就业报告。但因联邦政府"停摆"，劳工部在应急计划中 表示，在联邦资金中断期间，劳工统计局将暂停所有工作。与自动数据处理公司发布的数据不同，劳工 统计局非农就业数据包含政府部门岗位。 新华财经纽约10月1日电 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）1日发布的数据显示，今年9月美国私营部门减 少3.2万个就业岗位，出现2023年3月以来最大降幅，远低于增加约5万个就业岗位的市场预期。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US labor market and economic outlook, particularly in relation to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Softening**: The US labor market has shown signs of softening, with weak employment reports for July and August and a significant negative benchmark revision. Job growth is now estimated at just 25,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [3][6][11]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points in the last two months, reaching 4.3%. A broader measure of labor market slack indicates further softening [7][9]. - **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP is expected to grow at a below-potential pace in the second half of 2025, with a forecasted unemployment rate of 4.5%. A rebound towards potential growth is anticipated in 2026 as tariff effects diminish and fiscal measures provide support [11][24]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is viewed as a two-part story, with a moderate tariff effect and an underlying trend expected to decrease towards the target. Core inflation is projected to modestly increase to 3.2% by December [14][15]. - **FOMC Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is expected to implement three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with potential for a 50 basis point cut if labor market conditions worsen more rapidly than anticipated [4][33]. Additional Important Details - **Future Rate Projections**: The median dot plot is expected to show two cuts in 2025 to a rate of 3.875%, with further cuts projected in subsequent years [28][29]. - **Economic Projections**: The FOMC's economic projections from June are likely to remain largely unchanged, with GDP growth at 1.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and core PCE inflation at 3.1% for 2025 [24][26]. - **Market Reactions**: The FOMC's acknowledgment of labor market softening in its statement may signal to investors the likelihood of further cuts, as historical patterns suggest consecutive cuts are often implemented to address immediate economic issues [18][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC preview, highlighting the current state of the US labor market, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and anticipated monetary policy actions.

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell's political shift may lead to a larger-than-expected rate cut in September, potentially 50 basis points, and a total of 100 basis points for the year[4] - The labor market's weakness, with nearly negative job growth over the past four months, will be a key focus for the Fed in September[3] - A significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls provides Powell with a data-driven justification for a substantial rate cut[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate of 4.3% carries considerable upward risk, indicating a potential inflection point in the labor market[24] - The median probability of finding a job within three months has dropped from 50.7% to 44.9%, marking the lowest level since June 2013[24] - Non-farm payrolls were revised down by 91.1 thousand, representing 0.6% of total employment, which is double the average revision over the past decade[21] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's dovish turn is seen as a political maneuver to demonstrate loyalty to Trump, rather than a purely economic assessment[6] - The political landscape is complicated by Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could undermine the Fed's credibility[9] - The composition of the Fed Board may shift, with at least 2-3 votes supporting a 50 basis point cut if Cook is unable to participate in the September FOMC meeting[11]

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [3] - President Trump has expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and has threatened to remove him from his position [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5][6] - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 106,000 jobs added in July [5] - The weak labor market data has led to a decline in U.S. stock indices, a drop in the dollar index, and a significant increase in gold futures prices [5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [1] - President Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, criticizing the current chair Jerome Powell for not complying with his requests [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Group 2 - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 68,000, indicating a weakening labor market [4] - Market predictions suggest a 99% chance of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to shift focus from inflation to the labor market due to the weak employment data, with potential rate cuts in September and December [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [1] - The market is anticipating a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, according to market prediction platforms [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market, with potential rate cuts in September, October, and December, and possibly a larger cut in early 2026 if labor market conditions worsen [2]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest level in nearly four years [1] - Non-farm employment in the U.S. increased by only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly down from the revised 79,000 jobs added in July, and well below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs [3] - The report confirms a recent trend of weakness in the U.S. labor market, with previous months' job additions also being revised downward [5] Group 2 - Senate Majority Leader Schumer stated that the employment report was worse than already low expectations, warning that the Trump administration's policies are draining the vitality of the U.S. economy [7] - Schumer indicated that the pain experienced by the U.S. economy will only worsen if Republican lawmakers ignore these warnings, and that Senate Democrats will push for a vote to repeal the Trump administration's tariff policies in the coming weeks [7]

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the U.S. increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in August, marking the highest level in nearly four years [1] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly lower than the revised 79,000 jobs added in July and well below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs [1] - The report confirms a recent trend of weakness in the U.S. labor market, with previous months' job additions also being revised downward [1] Labor Market Trends - The increase in the unemployment rate in August follows a similar rise in July, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market [1] - The U.S. Labor Department's data for May and June also showed significant downward revisions in non-farm job additions, further highlighting the labor market's struggles [1] Government Response - In response to dissatisfaction with the July employment data, President Trump announced the dismissal of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics director, accusing her of manipulating employment data for political purposes [1]