JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 正如在先前文章中阐述的，笔者并不认为美国经济的通货膨胀会大幅反弹，相比之下美国经济面临的更 大的风险是下行，甚至是加速下行。当美国经济加速下行的局面已经出现时，美联储再加速降息也于事 无补，杯水车薪。 7月31日公布的数据显示，美国6月PCE物价指数年率从前值2.4%升至2.6%，6月PCE物价指数月率也从 前值0.2%升至0.3%。同时公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率与上月持平，为2.8%，6月核心PCE物价 指数月率则从前值0.2%升至0.3%。 一旦美国经济出现严重恶化的局面，美国资本市场也会被拖累，股票市场会出现动荡加剧的局面，同时 美国经济的动荡也会波及全球范围内的各个主要经济体。 上述最新的美国6月PCE数据出现小幅反弹，这说明美国经济的通货膨胀存在粘滞，甚至有反弹的风 险。这势必使得美联储在重启降息的决策中更加谨慎，也在一定程度上降低了美联储在9月议息会议上 重启降息的可能性。 不过，市场普遍认为当前美国经济增长乏力，甚 ...

世界500强投资企业 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0013700 2025/6/19 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | 伦敦金现 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 AU2508 AG2508 AU (T+D) AG (T+D) 日期 内外盘金 | | | (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (元/克) (元/千克) (元/克) (元/千克) 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/18 格厨房 3381. 90 37.23 3400. 40 37. 32 785. 08 8864. 00 782. 02 9004. 00 | | | (本表数 2025/6/17 3384. 97 36. 45 3403. 10 36. 54 785. 08 8864. 00 781. 69 8833.00 | 据来源: | | wind) 涨跌幅 -0. 1% 2.1% -0. 1% 2.1% 0. 0% 0. 0% 0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a potential decline in the likelihood of a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy, resulting in a downward adjustment of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased from 75 basis points to 55 basis points, with the timing of the cut pushed from June to September [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the next rate cut from July to December, reflecting changes in the financial market environment [1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflationary effects from tariffs remain, with inflation expectations in the market not cooling down, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain a loose monetary policy [5] - The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with non-housing market service inflation at 3.4% in March, indicating upward pressure on inflation [5] - The latest tariff policies are expected to reduce US economic growth by 1-1.5 percentage points and may push core inflation up by 1-1.5 percentage points [5] Economic Downside Risks - Despite progress in trade negotiations, the risk of a downturn in the US economy persists, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months [7] - The effective tariff levels in the US remain significantly higher than in previous decades, which could negatively impact economic growth [7] - The average effective tariff rate in the US is currently at 17.8%, the highest level since 1934, indicating ongoing economic risks [7] Global Economic Context - The recent rebound of the US dollar index following trade negotiation progress does not change the underlying issues related to US dollar credibility and the trend of "de-dollarization" in global asset allocation [8] - A reduction in the US current account deficit could lead to decreased demand, impacting capital inflows into US assets and potentially putting long-term pressure on the dollar [8]