10月3日公布的数据显示，美国9月ISM非制造业PMI从前值52大幅下滑至50，已经处于滑入萎缩区间的临界 点。这反映出美国的服务业正在恶化，而服务业是支撑美国经济的重要支柱。 同日，由于美国政府停摆，本来安排公布的美国9月非农就业数据未公布。不过，按照市场对9月非农就业数 据的预期值，该数据仍然处于相当低的水平。 在前期的讲话中，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的一些市场人士都警告，美国经济存在下行风险。这也正是美 联储在过去的9月议息会议上重启降息的重要依据。市场普遍认为，美联储在即将召开的10月议息会议上仍 然会降息25个基点。 然而，货币政策对于经济的影响具有一定的滞后性，况且每次25个基点的小幅降息能够在多大程度上支撑美 国经济也存在很大的疑问。 笔者认为，在鲍威尔明年5月卸任美联储主席之前，美联储会仍然对货币政策秉持非常谨慎的态度，快速和 大幅的降息举措很难出现。在这样的情况下，美国经济将会承受更大的负面压力，不排除出现"黑天鹅事 件"的可能性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的 准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险， ...

10月1日公布的数据显示，美国9月ADP就业人数呈现负值，为-3.2万人，前值也从5.4万人下修到-0.3万 人。 ADP就业数据被市场称为"小非农"，是非农就业数据的前瞻数据，对于美国就业市场具有相当重要的代 表性。最新9月的ADP就业人数大幅下滑且滑入负值区间，这反映出美国就业市场的疲软状况在加深。 这使得美联储在本月的议息会议上再次降息的可能性上升。 不过，即便美国就业市场出现了进一步疲软的迹象，笔者认为美联储本月降息的幅度很可能为25个基 点。这使得降息对于美国经济的支撑作用很有限，而且本来货币政策对于经济的影响就具有滞后性。 在上述这样的情况下，美国的就业市场未来还会进一步恶化，美国经济也存在着下行的风险。未来美联 储即使进一步降息，也很难在短期内对美国经济产生明显的正面效应。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

来源：谭浩俊财经视角 美联储降息了。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金 利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次 降息后再次降息。消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时，美联 储能否维持其独立性再次引发外界担忧。 降息未消除特朗普的不满情绪 美国总统特朗普在降息问题上，与美联储、特别是美联储主席鲍威尔之间的矛盾，已经到了水火不容的 程度，用"不共戴天"来形容，也未必过分。如果美联储是政府机构，鲍威尔可能已经被特朗普撤换几次 了，其他美联储成员，大多也会被特朗普换个遍。 苦于美联储的独立性相对较强，撤换美联储主席，可不是一件容易的事。因此，对特朗普来说，也是心 有余而力不足。有关撤换鲍威尔的狠话，也不知讲了多少遍，可鲍威尔仍然稳稳地坐在美联储主席的位 置上。 那么，这一次的降息，能否缓和鲍威尔与特朗普的关系呢？特朗普是否满意这次降息呢？很显然，这次 降息对特朗普来说，不满情绪仍然占据明显上风。且不说这次降息是特朗普多次狠话后的"成果"，单是 25个基点的降 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first rate cut of the year and indicating two more cuts may follow this year [1][3] - The new target range for the federal funds rate is now set at 4.0% to 4.25%, following a total of 100 basis points cut in the previous year [1] - Recent data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with a decrease in new job creation and increasing risks to employment [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts note that the 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations, reflecting the Fed's need to balance employment pressures and persistent inflation [3][6] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with significant downward revisions to non-farm employment data, raising concerns about economic slowdown [4][6] - Inflation remains above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [4][6] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cut has diminished the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets, leading to a rise in international gold prices [8] - The total U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about the scale and growth of U.S. debt [10] - There has been a significant inflow of capital into emerging markets, with net inflows reaching $256.08 billion from January to August, a 35% increase year-on-year [10] Group 4 - The World Gold Council reports that 95% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [12] - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to declining trust in the dollar, driven by high U.S. debt levels and a restructuring of global order [14]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have seen a significant increase followed by a decline, with prices dropping below the $3400 mark this week [1][2][3] - Last week, gold prices rose significantly, with the Shanghai gold futures price increasing by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY per gram and COMEX gold futures rising by 1.24% to $3458.20 per ounce [2] - The market is currently focused on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 95% probability of a rate cut expected in September, which may support gold prices [8] Group 2 - The recent U.S. inflation data has shown a mixed performance, with the core CPI rising to 3.1%, while the overall CPI remained stable at 2.7%, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [6][8] - The upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data are anticipated to impact gold prices, along with statements from key Federal Reserve officials [8] - Long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and central bank gold purchases, despite short-term fluctuations [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. June PCE price index year-on-year increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, suggesting a slight rebound in inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its decision to restart interest rate cuts [2] - The June core PCE price index year-on-year remained stable at 2.8%, while the month-on-month index rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The article suggests that despite the inflation rebound, the U.S. economy is facing weak growth and potential further decline, which could lead to negative impacts if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for an extended period [2] Group 2 - The author expresses skepticism about a significant rebound in U.S. inflation, emphasizing that the greater risk lies in economic downturns, which could render any accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve ineffective [2] - A severe deterioration in the U.S. economy could lead to increased volatility in the stock market and have ripple effects on major global economies [2]

世界500强投资企业 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0013700 2025/6/19 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | 伦敦金现 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 AU2508 AG2508 AU (T+D) AG (T+D) 日期 内外盘金 | | | (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (元/克) (元/千克) (元/克) (元/千克) 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/18 格厨房 3381. 90 37.23 3400. 40 37. 32 785. 08 8864. 00 782. 02 9004. 00 | | | (本表数 2025/6/17 3384. 97 36. 45 3403. 10 36. 54 785. 08 8864. 00 781. 69 8833.00 | 据来源: | | wind) 涨跌幅 -0. 1% 2.1% -0. 1% 2.1% 0. 0% 0. 0% 0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a potential decline in the likelihood of a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy, resulting in a downward adjustment of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased from 75 basis points to 55 basis points, with the timing of the cut pushed from June to September [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the next rate cut from July to December, reflecting changes in the financial market environment [1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflationary effects from tariffs remain, with inflation expectations in the market not cooling down, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain a loose monetary policy [5] - The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with non-housing market service inflation at 3.4% in March, indicating upward pressure on inflation [5] - The latest tariff policies are expected to reduce US economic growth by 1-1.5 percentage points and may push core inflation up by 1-1.5 percentage points [5] Economic Downside Risks - Despite progress in trade negotiations, the risk of a downturn in the US economy persists, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months [7] - The effective tariff levels in the US remain significantly higher than in previous decades, which could negatively impact economic growth [7] - The average effective tariff rate in the US is currently at 17.8%, the highest level since 1934, indicating ongoing economic risks [7] Global Economic Context - The recent rebound of the US dollar index following trade negotiation progress does not change the underlying issues related to US dollar credibility and the trend of "de-dollarization" in global asset allocation [8] - A reduction in the US current account deficit could lead to decreased demand, impacting capital inflows into US assets and potentially putting long-term pressure on the dollar [8]