Group 1 - Only 33% of surveyed companies believe the current Japanese economy is in an expansion phase, a significant drop from 71% in January [1] - 11% of companies perceive the current economic trend as "slow recession," indicating a spreading trend of economic slowdown [1] - 68% of surveyed companies express concern about the impact of U.S. tariff measures on their performance [1] Group 2 - The recent trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. will reduce tariffs on automobiles and "reciprocal tariffs" to 15%, in exchange for Japan's investment of $550 billion in the U.S. [2] - 53% of surveyed companies plan to raise product and service prices within a year due to long-term yen depreciation and rising labor costs [2] - In July, Japan recorded a new high of 961 corporate bankruptcies, with a significant increase in the number of bankruptcies in regions like Kanto and Hokuriku compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - In the Kyushu and Okinawa regions, 102 companies went bankrupt in July, a 12% increase from the previous year, marking the highest number since June 2009 [3] - The total liabilities of bankrupt companies in Kyushu and Okinawa increased by 42.7% compared to the previous year [3] - Analysts predict that the number of corporate bankruptcies will gradually increase, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises, due to the impact of U.S. high tariff policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the negative economic impact of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, suggesting that the costs outweigh the benefits, as the burden falls on American importers and consumers rather than generating significant revenue for the government [1][3]. Economic Impact - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross stated that the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to generate at least $50 billion in tariff revenue monthly, with $30 billion already collected in the previous month [1]. - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest level since 1933, leading to a projected short-term price increase of 1.8%, costing the average household approximately $2,400 [1][2]. Sector-Specific Effects - The report indicates that tariffs have a particularly severe impact on clothing and textile prices, with short-term price increases of 39% for footwear and 37% for clothing, and long-term increases of 19% and 18%, respectively [2]. - The tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points over the next two years and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of this year, rising to 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [2]. Consumer Burden - Analysts estimate that approximately 60% of the costs associated with high tariffs will be passed on to consumers, leading to increased financial strain on the average American [3]. - The Tax Foundation's economist emphasized that tariffs are adversely affecting many U.S. businesses reliant on imports, complicating the narrative that rising prices are unrelated to tariffs [3]. Supply Chain Disruption - The article notes that U.S. importers have been stockpiling goods ahead of tariff implementation, resulting in a significant increase in the trade deficit during the first half of the year [4]. - The economic situation is likened to "sand in the gears" of the economy, suggesting that high tariffs disrupt supply chains and increase raw material costs for manufacturers [4].

Group 1 - The easing situation in the Middle East and the rebound of the US dollar are suppressing gold prices, but concerns over the potential reintroduction of high tariffs by the US are stimulating safe-haven buying in gold [1] - The US dollar index has gradually rebounded after hitting a low last week, approaching the 98 level, which has created downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The high tariff suspension announced by Trump in April is set to expire on July 9, and the US Treasury Secretary indicated that tariffs will be reinstated on countries without trade agreements by August 1, raising concerns about the impact on the global economy and trade [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently fluctuating within the range of $3,300 to $3,365 per ounce, with a focus on the potential breakout above the $3,350 to $3,365 resistance zone [1] - The current adjustment phase in gold prices has entered its 12th week since reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce, indicating that the mid-term adjustment may be nearing its end, although the timing and manner of the next move remain uncertain [1] - The overall pattern for silver remains unchanged, with prices fluctuating between $35 and $37 per ounce after breaking through the $35 level, and there is potential for further upward movement towards the $40 to $42 range [2]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the US increased by 2.8% year-on-year in May, indicating upward pressure on inflation due to high tariffs [1][2] - The impact of tariffs on consumer goods prices is becoming evident, with significant price increases in categories such as household appliances and toys, although these are not yet sufficient to elevate overall inflation [2][3] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year expectation increasing to 6.6%, the highest since November 2023, reflecting concerns over future price levels due to tariff uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces increased difficulty in formulating monetary policy, with market expectations for interest rate cuts being pushed back despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point reduction [4][5] - The Fed is likely to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming meetings, with a potential for rate cuts to begin in September [6][7] - There is a consensus among market participants that the US economy is showing signs of cooling, leading to expectations of at least two rate cuts within the year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The senior chairman of Charoen Pokphand Group, Dhanin Chearavanont, emphasizes that while the high tariff policies of the Trump administration have negative impacts, they also present significant business opportunities for Japanese companies to enhance local production in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Charoen Pokphand Group operates in various sectors including food, pharmaceuticals, and finance across more than 20 countries, including the U.S. and China [1] - The chairman asserts that food production in the U.S., which is a core business for Charoen Pokphand, is not affected by high tariffs [1] - The U.S. market is characterized by its large scale, abundant raw materials, and low electricity costs, which can be leveraged by Japanese high technology to reduce local production costs and achieve substantial profits [1] Group 2 - During his visit to Japan, the chairman attended an event focused on startups, expressing interest in potential collaborations and investments [2] - He critiques Japanese companies for their slow decision-making processes and conservative risk attitudes, advocating for simultaneous support for the cultivation of entrepreneurs [2] - The chairman expresses hope that Japan, with its economic and technological strength, will invest in ASEAN to support its development, especially as the credibility of the U.S. as a global leader declines [2]