Core Viewpoint - The U.S. employment situation is somewhat unclear, and there are ongoing inflation concerns, leading to an increased probability that the Federal Reserve will remain inactive at least until March [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current stance increases as each meeting passes without action [1] - Market beliefs regarding the Federal Reserve's inaction, regardless of whether the probability is 5%, 10%, or 20%, indicate that these trades are considered inexpensive [1] - For disciplined risk managers, there is a demand for these trades due to their perceived value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The December employment report provides sufficient reasons for Federal Reserve officials to maintain a wait-and-see attitude in their upcoming meeting, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 50,000 and the three-month average for private sector hiring dropping to 29,000, marking the second-lowest growth rate of the year [1] Group 1 - The weak employment growth highlights the dynamic characteristics of the labor market in 2025, characterized by slow hiring and slow layoffs [1] - The decrease in the unemployment rate temporarily alleviates extreme concerns about the deterioration of the labor market, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the last three meetings [1] - The report reinforces market expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold during the meeting scheduled for January 27-28, but the weak hiring data ensures that discussions about the health of the labor market are far from over [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming release of the ADP employment numbers for December and the JOLTs job openings for November is expected to provide insights into the labor market's resilience [1] - The data is anticipated to support the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its current stance in January [1]

Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to decline slightly, but the downward momentum has noticeably slowed, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern [2] - This week, significant data releases including U.S. employment figures, inflation data, and Q2 GDP growth, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, may impact market sentiment [2] - Market predictions are generally pessimistic, with the effects of tariff policies on the U.S. economy becoming more apparent [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold this month; a rate cut could raise questions about its independence and potentially lead to a surge in inflation, undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a continued oscillating trend, with long-term moving averages acting as a mid-term dividing line [2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a limited rebound, but fundamental pressures are increasing, potentially leading to a downward break in the long-term trend [4] - OPEC+ representatives have indicated a temporary plan to restore production, with expectations that Saudi Arabia and partners will approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [4] - If the new production plan is approved, eight core OPEC+ members will fully reverse the 2.2 million barrels per day cut implemented in 2023 a year earlier than planned [4] - Seasonal demand provides some support for oil prices, but weakening consumption may create pressure from both supply and demand sides, with a long-term possibility of prices testing the $55 per barrel level [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a significant decline, indicating that the upward trend is likely complete, although short-term divergence appears excessive [6] - The price has entered a previous small range, forming a downward structure, with a focus on the resistance level at $5.63 per pound [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candle, signaling the completion of an upward structure and the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [7] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant overselling, suggesting a potential for adjustment, with attention on the resistance level at 41,260 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar may experience a summer rally if the Federal Reserve remains inactive and institutional investors slow down their selling of the dollar [1] Group 1 - The mid-term outlook for the dollar is bearish, but the risk of a summer rally is increasing [1] - The commentary is led by Adarsh Sinha, a foreign exchange strategist at the bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that the unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data may support the Federal Reserve's decision to remain inactive for a longer period this year, effectively eliminating concerns about the labor market and ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in July [1] Group 1 - The strong non-farm payroll data is seen as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance [1] - The data is likely to alleviate concerns regarding the labor market [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has been diminished due to this data [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its current interest rates, which has led to a dampening of expectations for future rate cuts [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a high, raising questions about whether bullish momentum has peaked [1] - There is speculation regarding short-term trading strategies, particularly the potential for continued short positions in the market [1] Summary by Categories Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady has significant implications for market expectations regarding future monetary policy [1] Gold Market - Following the Fed's announcement, gold saw a high point but subsequently retreated, indicating a possible halt in bullish trends [1] Market Speculation - Traders are considering short positions in light of the recent market movements and the Fed's stance on interest rates [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its current monetary policy, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate changes [1] - There are underlying tensions regarding tariff movements, which could impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1] - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to assess future trends in the gold market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady on interest rates suggests stability in the financial markets for the time being [1] - Tariff developments are creating uncertainty, which may influence gold prices and investor behavior [1] - Continuous monitoring of gold order flows is essential for understanding market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has sufficient information to support a decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance without changes [1] Group 1 - The relationship between confidence data and spending data has weakened, which serves as a basis for the Federal Reserve's decision to remain on hold [1]