Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated the potential reasons for a rate cut in July, emphasizing that the easing policy is not politically motivated [1]

金十数据7月3日讯，分析师Roseanne Briggen表示，6月就业数据全面超出预期：非农就业增长远超预 测，失业率意外下降。市场迅速作出反应：国债价格跳水，隔夜指数掉期（OIS）利率飙升，担保隔夜 融资利率（SOFR）期货暴跌，收益率曲线呈现"熊平"走势。美元应声大涨，因7月降息可能性几近归 零。联邦基金期货最新定价显示，7月降息概率已从数据公布前的25%骤降至4%。不过经济学家深入剖 析报告细节后发现——州和地方政府岗位增加7.3万（以教育行业为主），而联邦政府岗位减少7000 人，私营部门就业增长也不及预期——但整体劳动力市场仍保持强劲，这为美联储维持利率不变提供了 充分依据。 非农报告强劲浇灭7月降息希望，美债美元巨震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The door for a rate cut in July has closed, with the focus shifting to the rising unemployment rate, which has actually decreased to 4.1% [1] Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in July is expected to be less significant due to the current employment situation [1] - Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, emphasizes that employment data is crucial for the Fed's actions [1] - The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has room to adopt a wait-and-see approach given the employment indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that the unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data may support the Federal Reserve's decision to remain inactive for a longer period this year, effectively eliminating concerns about the labor market and ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in July [1] Group 1 - The strong non-farm payroll data is seen as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance [1] - The data is likely to alleviate concerns regarding the labor market [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has been diminished due to this data [1]

Group 1 - Several Federal Reserve officials indicated the need for further observation over the next few months to determine if price increases caused by tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation [1] - Officials including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman suggested that if inflation remains controlled, it could support a rate cut in July [1] - However, nearly 12 policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams, expressed skepticism about this view, indicating they are not ready to cut rates at the next meeting [1] Group 2 - Powell stated during congressional testimony that if not for the uncertainty in future price outlook due to tariffs, the Fed might have already begun to cut rates based solely on declining inflation [1] - Currently, there is no urgency to adjust interest rates according to Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market dynamics influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the implications for stock and bond markets. It highlights the importance of waiting for system signals rather than acting on uncertainty. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and an increase in stock index futures [3] - The bond market showed stability in response to the ceasefire news, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.64% and fluctuating slightly [3] - The central bank conducted a small incremental operation of MLF, leading to a slight decrease in bond yields [3] Group 2: Financial Indicators - The central bank's open market operations included a 406.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan after 197.3 billion yuan matured [1] - The overnight funding rate remained stable at around 1.37%, while the 7-day funding rate increased by 16 basis points to approximately 1.67% [1] - The weighted rates for various repo codes showed slight changes, with R001 at 1.44% and R007 at 1.82%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the interbank funding market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Powell may indicate potential interest rate cuts in July, which could influence market dynamics, particularly in gold trading during the US market hours [1] Group 1 - Powell's speech is anticipated to provide insights on possible interest rate cuts, specifically in July [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the speech for indications that could affect gold prices [1] - The analysis suggests that the market is preparing for potential volatility based on Powell's statements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in gold prices and suggests that a potential interest rate cut in July may become a focal point for speculation in the market [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have experienced a significant increase during the U.S. trading session, indicating a bullish trend [1] - The possibility of a rate cut in July is highlighted as a potential catalyst for market speculation, which could influence gold prices further [1] - Short-term traders are advised to monitor key support levels for potential pullbacks in gold prices [1]