来源：市场资讯 （来源：西南研究） 分析师 杨杰峰 S1250523060001 点评 报告日期：2026年2月25日 在美联储正式成立之前，美国中央银行制度曾经历多次更迭。在1913年正式设立美联储之前，美国曾两 度尝试建立中央银行：美国第一银行（1791年–1811年）与美国第二银行（1816年–1836年），但都因政 治博弈、地方利益冲突未能持续，最终导致制度真空。以杰克逊为首的民主共和党人视央行为联邦扩权 工具，1832年其否决第二银行续期案凸显了联邦与地方的权力之争。同时，这两家银行被批为"东北部 精英代理人"，信贷资源过度倾向东部，加剧区域矛盾。州立银行担忧市场份额被蚕食，持续游说限制 央行特权；而第二银行私人控股性质又与民粹主义相悖。此外，第一银行外资控股70%引发经济主权担 忧，为反对者提供了有力论据。第二银行关停后，曾出现史称"自由银行时期"的小银行热潮。最终由于 频繁出现挤兑等金融危机，国会决定重新考虑建立央行 建章立制：美联储的基本职能与机构组成 中央银行是一国货币和金融系统的中心，核心任务主要有三：1）稳定经济增长，运用货币政策工具调 控市场利率，以最大化就业、稳定物价和维持适度的长期 ...

Global Macro - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve is likely to open the door for a rate cut in September, driven by the increasing risks in the employment market outweighing inflation risks [2][3] - The adjustment in monetary policy framework from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible 2% inflation target reflects the changing economic environment, indicating a shift in response to high inflation and growth conditions [4] - The report suggests that while a rate cut in September is probable, it is more of a preventive measure rather than a signal of an impending recession, as the U.S. economy shows resilience [4][3] Employment and Inflation - The employment market is facing downward risks, with July's non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations and previous months' data being significantly revised downwards, indicating potential overestimation of current employment figures [2][3] - Inflation risks are considered manageable in the short term, with the impact of tariffs expected to be gradual rather than immediate, thus supporting the case for a rate cut [3] - The labor market's downward pressure, influenced by tightening immigration policies, may also help to suppress inflation, further justifying the anticipated rate cut [3] Economic Indicators - The report notes that key economic indicators such as retail and industrial production suggest that the U.S. economy remains robust, with a low likelihood of a recession in the near term [4][26] - The labor participation rate is declining, which may lead to a higher actual unemployment rate than currently reported, complicating the Federal Reserve's data-dependent policy approach [10][12] - The financial conditions in the U.S. are currently easing, which may support continued economic growth and limit the need for aggressive rate cuts [15][18]

Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, and the performance of various sectors in the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the manufacturing and export sectors. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral to tight monetary policy is seen as beneficial in the short term, but long-term implications depend on inflation trends. If inflation remains above 2%, policies will tighten; if it falls below, easing may occur [1][5][18]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The 30% new tariffs have severely impacted profit margins for low-end Chinese exporters, while high-end manufacturers can pass on some costs. Even without tariff changes, export data is expected to decline gradually, particularly in May [1][13][14]. - **Real Estate and Consumption Trends**: The long-term outlook for the Chinese real estate market is negative, with structural changes in consumption expected but not leading to significant growth. Traditional stimulus measures are unlikely to yield substantial results in the near term [1][19][21]. - **Market Recovery Post-Tariff**: The market has largely absorbed the impacts of the tariff disputes, with U.S. and Chinese stock markets recovering to pre-tariff levels. Gold prices have shown a reverse correlation with U.S. stocks, influenced by tariff-related capital flows [1][10][20]. - **Economic Data and Trade War Effects**: The first quarter of 2025 showed strong economic data in China, attributed to preemptive orders due to the trade war. However, risks are increasing as data begins to weaken in the second quarter [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sensitivity to Currency Fluctuations**: High-end manufacturers are less sensitive to RMB fluctuations compared to low-end firms, which are more affected by tariff negotiations and currency depreciation [4][23]. - **Expectations for Future Stimulus**: The likelihood of significant stimulus measures in July is low, with a focus on structural changes rather than immediate economic boosts. The real estate sector may see some policy adjustments, but overall economic growth is not expected to rebound sharply [19][21]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market's performance in early 2025 was driven by factors such as trade tensions and capital outflows from U.S. equities, rather than central bank purchases [25][26]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with no immediate monetary easing anticipated unless economic data deteriorates significantly [24][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, economic performance, and market reactions.