交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会并发表演 讲。从整体基调及市场的反应来看，鲍威尔言论"偏鸽"，主要体现在：1） 就业市场阶段性下行风险>通胀上行风险；2）因而需要调整货币政策—即为 9 月降息敞开大门。同时，鲍威尔也宣布了货币政策框架调整，核心为由平均通 胀目标制（AIT）改为 2%的灵活通胀目标制度，并取消通胀"补偿"。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 美联储当前面临就业下行、通胀上行双向风险，且还有 8 月的就业、通胀数据 可供参考，为何鲍威尔意外转鸽？ 就业市场阶段性下行风险增大。同上一年 9 月类似，就业市场下行风险推动美 联储降息。7 月，非农新增就业数据不及预期，且此前两月数据遭遇数十年来 最大的下修。尽管从就业数据上来看，7 月非农数据似乎仍尚可，且失业率维 持在低位。但由于持续下滑的就业调查回复率，及劳工局模型误差的影响，当 前的就业数据可能存在大幅被高估的风险。同时，失业率维持在低位主要可能 受供给因素推动，即移民减少等因素使得更多人退出劳动力市场，使得劳动参 与率持续走低 ...

Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, and the performance of various sectors in the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the manufacturing and export sectors. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral to tight monetary policy is seen as beneficial in the short term, but long-term implications depend on inflation trends. If inflation remains above 2%, policies will tighten; if it falls below, easing may occur [1][5][18]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The 30% new tariffs have severely impacted profit margins for low-end Chinese exporters, while high-end manufacturers can pass on some costs. Even without tariff changes, export data is expected to decline gradually, particularly in May [1][13][14]. - **Real Estate and Consumption Trends**: The long-term outlook for the Chinese real estate market is negative, with structural changes in consumption expected but not leading to significant growth. Traditional stimulus measures are unlikely to yield substantial results in the near term [1][19][21]. - **Market Recovery Post-Tariff**: The market has largely absorbed the impacts of the tariff disputes, with U.S. and Chinese stock markets recovering to pre-tariff levels. Gold prices have shown a reverse correlation with U.S. stocks, influenced by tariff-related capital flows [1][10][20]. - **Economic Data and Trade War Effects**: The first quarter of 2025 showed strong economic data in China, attributed to preemptive orders due to the trade war. However, risks are increasing as data begins to weaken in the second quarter [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sensitivity to Currency Fluctuations**: High-end manufacturers are less sensitive to RMB fluctuations compared to low-end firms, which are more affected by tariff negotiations and currency depreciation [4][23]. - **Expectations for Future Stimulus**: The likelihood of significant stimulus measures in July is low, with a focus on structural changes rather than immediate economic boosts. The real estate sector may see some policy adjustments, but overall economic growth is not expected to rebound sharply [19][21]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market's performance in early 2025 was driven by factors such as trade tensions and capital outflows from U.S. equities, rather than central bank purchases [25][26]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with no immediate monetary easing anticipated unless economic data deteriorates significantly [24][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, economic performance, and market reactions.