上周五（8月22日），美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表鸽派讲话，降息预期直线上升。美国三大股指全线突破今 年2月的前期高点，刷新历史纪录。在宽松预期的加持之下，美股后市继续上行的概率显著增强。 鲍威尔意外转鸽 降息概率大增 在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，鲍威尔表示美国就业面临下行风险，可能需要调整政策。尽管通胀仍是关注重点，但就业市场上升 的风险可能使得美联储在9月会议中决定降息。此外，他还宣布美联储一致通过了新的政策框架，将采用"灵活平均通胀目标 制"，取代原有的通胀补偿机制。 本文出自百利好，转载请注明。 此番表态后，据芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场对9月降息的预期概率从75.5%上升至91.1%；10月维持利率不变的概率从 13%下降至4.3%，降息25个基点的概率为48.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率则从35.5%上升至46.8%。 摩根士丹利在最新报告预计，美联储将9月降息25个基点，12月再降息25个基点，并在2026年前每季度降息一次，最终将政策利 率目标降至2.75%-3.0%。荷兰国际集团（ING）预测显示，美联储在今年9月、10月和12月将各降息25个基点，明年全年再降息 50个基 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated increasing downside risks to employment and suggested that tariff impacts on inflation may be one-time events, implying a potential adjustment in policy stance [1][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell described the labor market as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, which raises concerns about potential job losses and rising unemployment rates [1]. - He noted that while inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging situation for policy decisions [4]. Monetary Policy Implications - Powell's remarks have strengthened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the probability of such a move rising to around 92% immediately after his speech [4][5]. - Analysts believe that Powell's statements signal a consensus within the Fed for policy adjustments, with employment risks becoming a key trigger for changes [5][6]. Internal Fed Dynamics - There are significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate adjustments, with some officials expressing skepticism about the need for a rate cut in September [7][8]. - Despite these divisions, Powell's prioritization of employment risks suggests that disagreements may affect the pace of rate cuts rather than the direction [8]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell indicated a shift in the Fed's monetary policy framework, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" adopted in 2020, which is no longer deemed suitable given current inflation levels [9]. - This adjustment allows the Fed more flexibility to prioritize employment over inflation targets when conflicts arise, potentially reshaping capital flows and providing opportunities for emerging market assets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference have sparked optimism on Wall Street, leading to a significant rally in U.S. stock markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historic high and investors betting on a potential interest rate cut as early as September [1][5]. Market Reaction - On Friday, the Dow Jones surged by 846.24 points, or 1.89%, closing at 45,631.74, marking a new all-time high. The S&P 500 rose by 1.52% to 6,466.91, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.88% to 21,496.53 [1][2]. - This rally reversed earlier declines in the week, where uncertainty over prolonged high interest rates and a pullback in tech stocks had pressured the major indices [2]. Technology Sector Performance - Following Powell's remarks, major tech stocks saw substantial gains, with Nvidia up 1.7%, Meta rising over 2%, and Alphabet and Amazon both increasing by more than 3%. Tesla experienced a nearly 6% jump, becoming one of the strongest performers of the day [3]. - The tech sector is particularly sensitive to interest rate movements, as lower rates reduce financing costs and enhance the present value of future cash flows, benefiting growth-oriented companies [3]. Powell's Remarks - Powell's tone at the Jackson Hole meeting was notably more dovish compared to previous months, indicating that the current economic "baseline outlook" and "risk balance" may necessitate adjustments to existing policies [4][7]. - He highlighted that risks are shifting between maintaining employment and controlling inflation, and that the U.S. economy is undergoing "profound structural changes" influenced by tax, trade, and immigration policies [4][9]. Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Although Powell did not specify a timeline for rate cuts, his comments were interpreted as a signal for potential easing, leading to an increase in the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September to 83%, up from around 75% earlier in the week [5][8]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate at its highest level in over 20 years to combat persistent inflation, but with inflation data showing signs of easing, the Fed faces a dilemma of preventing economic overheating while avoiding excessive pressure on consumption and employment [5][9]. Economic Context - Powell noted that while the labor market remains strong, downside risks are increasing, and new tariffs could reignite inflation, potentially leading to a "stagflation" scenario, which the Fed aims to avoid [9][11]. - He emphasized the need for flexibility and caution in policy adjustments, given the current economic conditions and the complexities introduced by tariffs and global economic slowdowns [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize the independence of the Fed during his upcoming speech, amidst significant political pressure and scrutiny from the Trump administration [1][2][3] Political and Policy Context - Powell's speech is anticipated to address the Fed's independence, especially given the political challenges he faces, including ongoing criticism from President Trump [2][3] - The theme of the speech, "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment," suggests Powell will discuss macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, which are evaluated every five years [3][4] - Market expectations indicate that Powell may pave the way for a rate cut in September, as his past speeches have often signaled major policy shifts [3][4] Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts predict that Powell will not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will indicate potential support for such a move [4] - The Kansas City Fed President has stated that more data is needed before supporting a rate cut, reflecting a cautious stance among some Fed members [4][5] - The labor market's condition and the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation will be critical points in Powell's address [4][5] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Recent labor statistics show weak job growth, yet many policymakers still describe the labor market as "robust," indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts [5] - Concerns about inflation are prevalent among Fed members, with some expressing skepticism about the necessity of a September rate cut, which could provoke political backlash [5][6] - Powell is likely to maintain a cautious approach and avoid pre-committing to a September rate cut, focusing instead on a robust long-term policy framework [5][6] Framework Adjustments - The Fed's 2020 adoption of a "flexible average inflation targeting" framework may be revised, as it has been linked to the current inflation surge [5][6] - Economists expect Powell to advocate for a return to a more preventive policy stance, reflecting the realities of the current economic environment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing a cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions - Current economic uncertainty has decreased but remains high, with the Fed's language showing no significant changes from May [1][2]. - The market is increasingly concerned about the potential economic issues arising from prolonged high interest rates, especially in the context of complex global trade dynamics and tariff policies [2][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a flexible approach to future monetary policy, closely monitoring tariff policies and inflation data as key determinants [2][3]. - Recent economic data suggests a potential for rate cuts, with May's CPI showing a year-over-year increase of 2.4% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating moderate inflation pressures [2][4]. Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, but recent non-farm payroll data showed job additions below expectations, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2][3]. - The ADP report indicated the lowest job additions in two years for May, further highlighting labor market concerns [2]. Communication Strategy - The Fed's communication strategy reflects a tendency to maintain a hawkish tone while allowing for policy flexibility, particularly in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [3][4]. - Research indicates that central banks tend to adopt conditional and scenario-based communication during high uncertainty, which helps maintain market confidence and policy flexibility [3]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed may shift its focus from inflation control to growth support, especially if inflation expectations can be effectively managed [4][5]. - A potential transition to a more flexible inflation targeting framework could indicate an increased tolerance for inflation above 2%, suggesting greater policy flexibility [5]. - Projections indicate that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026, with an expected reduction of 75-100 basis points throughout 2025 [1][5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in controlling inflation, which has not met targets since early 2021 and peaked at 9% [1][2] - The inflation is attributed to excessive government spending during the pandemic, with Congress borrowing $500 billion and the Federal Reserve printing $3 trillion [2][3] - The current economic situation is complicated by potential tariffs, which could lead to stagflation and further inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is criticized for its slow response to inflation and reliance on low interest rates, which may not effectively address supply shocks [3][4] - There is a call for the government to avoid excessive stimulus and to restore fiscal space to maintain investor confidence in debt repayment [5][6] - Future inflation risks may persist if structural issues in fiscal policy are not addressed, leading to market volatility and economic instability [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest that the supply of Shanghai copper may increase slightly while the demand remains relatively stable. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,130 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,628 dollars/ton, up 63 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai copper is 174,757 lots, up 5,295 lots. The LME copper inventory is 154,300 tons, down 7,850 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,485 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,525 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 44.97 dollars/ton, up 4.89 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper concentrate TC index is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.47%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.49%, down 0.20%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.03%, down 0.0002; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.82, down 0.0064 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed meeting minutes show that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. The Politburo member and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes building a good platform economy ecosystem. From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises is 26.2755 trillion yuan, and the total profit is 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply for domestic smelters will remain stable in the short term. The overall supply of copper may increase steadily, while the demand from some downstream copper product processing enterprises is weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The recent convergence of the spot premium and downstream operations such as low - price replenishment and pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking support the copper price [2].

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices continue to decline, with all major brands now below 1,000 yuan per gram, the highest price being 991 yuan per gram from Zhou Sheng Sheng, down by 14 yuan per gram [1] - Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 969 yuan per gram, with a price difference of 22 yuan per gram among various brands [1] - Specific brand prices include: Lao Miao Gold at 987 yuan per gram (down 10), Liufu Gold at 990 yuan per gram (down 16), and Zhou Dafu Gold at 990 yuan per gram (down 16) [1][3] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices also saw a slight decrease, with Zhou Sheng Sheng's platinum jewelry priced at 438 yuan per gram, down by 4 yuan per gram [4] - The gold recovery prices have also dropped by 8.7 yuan per gram, with varying recovery prices across brands [4] International Gold Market - The spot gold price fluctuated, reaching a high of 3,325.22 USD per ounce before closing at 3,300.77 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.42% [7] - Current spot gold is reported at 3,273.08 USD per ounce, indicating further downward pressure [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a decrease in market risk aversion following a ruling against Trump's tariffs, which has strengthened the dollar [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate rising risks of unemployment and inflation, with a 97.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June [7]

Group 1 - The EU has agreed to hold daily calls with US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative to discuss tariff policies and cooperation in sectors like aviation, semiconductors, and steel [10] - Trump's media technology group saw a significant drop of nearly 7%, while GameStop fell by 10.8% [4] - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $44.1 billion, with data center revenue growing by 73% to $39.1 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales [11] Group 2 - The OPEC+ meeting did not adjust oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [13] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.53%, with significant movements in tech stocks, including Alibaba Pictures rising by 11.54% and Kuaishou increasing by 5.95% [5] - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.02% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.26% [6]

Domestic News - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng welcomed U.S. financial institutions to actively participate in the development of China's capital markets [4] - The National Health Commission reported a slowdown in the upward trend of COVID-19 cases nationwide [4] - The Ministry of Education announced that the number of candidates for the national college entrance examination in 2025 is expected to reach 13.35 million [4] - The Ministry of Commerce is strengthening the promotion of rare earth export control policies, which may indicate a relaxation of export restrictions on European chip companies [4] International News - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, although data center revenue was slightly below forecasts, leading to a 5% increase in stock price after hours [5] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not make adjustments to oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [11] - German automakers are reportedly negotiating directly with the U.S. government for tariff exemptions in exchange for investments [12]