"货币政策关心的核心问题是这些价格上涨是否会大幅增加持续通胀的风险。合理的基准假设是，这些影响大多为一次 性水平跃升。"鲍威尔说，"当然，我们不能对通胀预期的稳定掉以轻心。无论发生什么，我们绝不会让一次性的价格水 平提升演变为持续通胀问题。" 每年8月下旬，来自全球数十个国家的央行负责人齐聚美国怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔镇共商经济和货币政策问题。美联储 主席的发言向来是会议的焦点，本次会议召开之时，美联储内部在利率调整路径上陷入分歧，市场期待鲍威尔释放相对 清晰的货币政策前景信息。 综上，他认为，短期来看，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，"这是一个有挑战的局面"。"当我们的目标发生一 定冲突时，框架要求我们平衡处理双重使命。截至目前，政策利率距离中性水平已较去年拉近100个基点，失业率和其 他劳动力市场指标的稳定使我们能谨慎考虑政策立场的调整。然而，由于政策处于限制性区间，基准前景和不断变化的 风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场。"鲍威尔说。 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 他的表态进一步强化了9月降息预期，受此影响，周五欧美股市集体大涨，美股三大指数均涨超1.5%，其中道指创下历 史新高。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发出的最新政策信号，让华尔街瞬间燃起希望。受此影响，美股在周五集体飙升，道琼斯工业平均指数一举突破历 史高位，标普500与纳斯达克也双双大涨。投资者押注，美联储最快将于9月启动新一轮降息周期。 周五收盘，道琼斯指数大涨846.24点，涨幅1.89%，报45,631.74点，创下历史收盘新高。标普500指数上涨1.52%，收于6,466.91点，盘中一度距离历史最高 点仅差3点。科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.88%，报21,496.53点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 45631.74 | 21496.53 | 6466.91 | | +846.24 +1.89% +396.22 +1.88% +96.74 +1.52% | | | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7920.12 | 23582.75 | 6484.75 | | +210.44 +2.73% +363.00 +1.56% +96.50 +1.51% | | | | 美国国债 | | | | 3个目期 | 10年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing a cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions - Current economic uncertainty has decreased but remains high, with the Fed's language showing no significant changes from May [1][2]. - The market is increasingly concerned about the potential economic issues arising from prolonged high interest rates, especially in the context of complex global trade dynamics and tariff policies [2][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a flexible approach to future monetary policy, closely monitoring tariff policies and inflation data as key determinants [2][3]. - Recent economic data suggests a potential for rate cuts, with May's CPI showing a year-over-year increase of 2.4% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating moderate inflation pressures [2][4]. Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, but recent non-farm payroll data showed job additions below expectations, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2][3]. - The ADP report indicated the lowest job additions in two years for May, further highlighting labor market concerns [2]. Communication Strategy - The Fed's communication strategy reflects a tendency to maintain a hawkish tone while allowing for policy flexibility, particularly in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [3][4]. - Research indicates that central banks tend to adopt conditional and scenario-based communication during high uncertainty, which helps maintain market confidence and policy flexibility [3]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed may shift its focus from inflation control to growth support, especially if inflation expectations can be effectively managed [4][5]. - A potential transition to a more flexible inflation targeting framework could indicate an increased tolerance for inflation above 2%, suggesting greater policy flexibility [5]. - Projections indicate that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026, with an expected reduction of 75-100 basis points throughout 2025 [1][5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in controlling inflation, which has not met targets since early 2021 and peaked at 9% [1][2] - The inflation is attributed to excessive government spending during the pandemic, with Congress borrowing $500 billion and the Federal Reserve printing $3 trillion [2][3] - The current economic situation is complicated by potential tariffs, which could lead to stagflation and further inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is criticized for its slow response to inflation and reliance on low interest rates, which may not effectively address supply shocks [3][4] - There is a call for the government to avoid excessive stimulus and to restore fiscal space to maintain investor confidence in debt repayment [5][6] - Future inflation risks may persist if structural issues in fiscal policy are not addressed, leading to market volatility and economic instability [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest that the supply of Shanghai copper may increase slightly while the demand remains relatively stable. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,130 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,628 dollars/ton, up 63 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai copper is 174,757 lots, up 5,295 lots. The LME copper inventory is 154,300 tons, down 7,850 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,485 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,525 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 44.97 dollars/ton, up 4.89 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper concentrate TC index is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.47%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.49%, down 0.20%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.03%, down 0.0002; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.82, down 0.0064 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed meeting minutes show that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. The Politburo member and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes building a good platform economy ecosystem. From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises is 26.2755 trillion yuan, and the total profit is 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply for domestic smelters will remain stable in the short term. The overall supply of copper may increase steadily, while the demand from some downstream copper product processing enterprises is weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The recent convergence of the spot premium and downstream operations such as low - price replenishment and pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking support the copper price [2].

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices continue to decline, with all major brands now below 1,000 yuan per gram, the highest price being 991 yuan per gram from Zhou Sheng Sheng, down by 14 yuan per gram [1] - Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 969 yuan per gram, with a price difference of 22 yuan per gram among various brands [1] - Specific brand prices include: Lao Miao Gold at 987 yuan per gram (down 10), Liufu Gold at 990 yuan per gram (down 16), and Zhou Dafu Gold at 990 yuan per gram (down 16) [1][3] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices also saw a slight decrease, with Zhou Sheng Sheng's platinum jewelry priced at 438 yuan per gram, down by 4 yuan per gram [4] - The gold recovery prices have also dropped by 8.7 yuan per gram, with varying recovery prices across brands [4] International Gold Market - The spot gold price fluctuated, reaching a high of 3,325.22 USD per ounce before closing at 3,300.77 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.42% [7] - Current spot gold is reported at 3,273.08 USD per ounce, indicating further downward pressure [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a decrease in market risk aversion following a ruling against Trump's tariffs, which has strengthened the dollar [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate rising risks of unemployment and inflation, with a 97.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June [7]

Group 1 - The EU has agreed to hold daily calls with US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative to discuss tariff policies and cooperation in sectors like aviation, semiconductors, and steel [10] - Trump's media technology group saw a significant drop of nearly 7%, while GameStop fell by 10.8% [4] - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $44.1 billion, with data center revenue growing by 73% to $39.1 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales [11] Group 2 - The OPEC+ meeting did not adjust oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [13] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.53%, with significant movements in tech stocks, including Alibaba Pictures rising by 11.54% and Kuaishou increasing by 5.95% [5] - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.02% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.26% [6]

Domestic News - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng welcomed U.S. financial institutions to actively participate in the development of China's capital markets [4] - The National Health Commission reported a slowdown in the upward trend of COVID-19 cases nationwide [4] - The Ministry of Education announced that the number of candidates for the national college entrance examination in 2025 is expected to reach 13.35 million [4] - The Ministry of Commerce is strengthening the promotion of rare earth export control policies, which may indicate a relaxation of export restrictions on European chip companies [4] International News - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, although data center revenue was slightly below forecasts, leading to a 5% increase in stock price after hours [5] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not make adjustments to oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [11] - German automakers are reportedly negotiating directly with the U.S. government for tariff exemptions in exchange for investments [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials to maintain the current interest rate policy due to rising economic uncertainty, reflecting a cautious approach towards inflation and employment risks [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time, citing sufficient space to wait for clearer signals regarding inflation and economic outlook [1] - Economists believe that tariffs will likely increase inflation and suppress economic growth, with the Fed staff lowering growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - The Fed staff predicts a significant weakening in the labor market, with unemployment expected to rise above the "natural rate" this year and remain high until 2027 [2] - Inflation expectations have become a focal point for policymakers, with nearly all participants acknowledging the risk of more persistent inflation than previously anticipated [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The minutes indicate ongoing discussions regarding the periodic evaluation of the monetary policy framework, with a potential shift towards a "flexible inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed 2% temporarily without compensating for past deviations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the benefits of the flexible average inflation targeting framework have diminished in a high-risk environment, prompting a reconsideration of the strategy [1] Group 1: Inflation Targeting Framework - Participants discussed the pros and cons of flexible average inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting [1] - Under flexible average inflation targeting, monetary policy aims to compensate for periods of inflation below the target to achieve a 2% average inflation rate [1] - In contrast, flexible inflation targeting seeks to restore the inflation rate to 2% without compensating for previous deviations from the target [1] Group 2: Economic Environment Considerations - Participants noted that the risks associated with the effective lower bound (ELB) of policy rates are more pronounced when inflation remains persistently below target [1] - The flexible average inflation targeting framework may help limit the downward risk to long-term inflation expectations in such scenarios [1] - However, the benefits of this framework have weakened in environments with high inflation shock risks or when the risk of hitting the effective lower bound is low [1] Group 3: Policy Strategy Reevaluation - There is a consensus among participants on the need to reconsider the wording in the "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" regarding average inflation targeting [1] - An effective monetary policy strategy must be adaptable to various economic conditions [1] - Participants believe that a flexible inflation targeting strategy is a more robust policy approach to address persistent deviations from the committee's 2% long-term inflation target [1]