Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 19, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly, with the platinum main contract down 7.66% to 506.95 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract down 8.18% to 371.45 yuan/gram [1] - The platinum price is expected to oscillate due to the high energy prices driving up inflation expectations in the US and delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectations [2] - The palladium price is also expected to oscillate as the short - term supply disturbances persist while the long - term supply - demand situation tends to ease, and it currently follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: The Fed's hawkish resolution led to a sharp decline in platinum prices. The March Fed meeting paused rate cuts as expected, and the dot - plot maintained the prediction of one rate cut in 2026. The Iran situation is the main trading line. On one hand, the risk - aversion sentiment supports precious metal prices; on the other hand, high oil prices increase inflation expectations, delay the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and may lead the US into a stagflation stage, suppressing prices. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the current US - Iran geopolitical conflict still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices [2] - **Outlook**: The platinum price is expected to oscillate [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to ease, but short - term supply disturbances still exist, and it currently follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - **Outlook**: The palladium price is expected to oscillate [3] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [48] Non - ferrous Metals Index - **Performance**: On March 19, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its members [1][2][9] - The FOMC meeting minutes from July 29-30 reveal that most officials prioritize inflation risks over employment concerns, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][5] Group 2 - The political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, is intensifying, with calls for the resignation of Fed officials who oppose his economic policies [1][9] - The Fed's decision-making environment is becoming more complex and politicized, although its independence is expected to remain intact in the short term [9][10] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen significantly, with an 82% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, despite the Fed's cautious stance on inflation [6][8]