曾经并肩站上高端消费神坛的"药茅"片仔癀与"酒茅"茅台，如今正经历冰火两重天。 另一边是茅台的"韧性依旧"：前三季度营收净利润稳步增长，品牌护城河持续筑牢，即便价格回调仍稳坐行业龙头。 同样面临消费市场变革，为何曾经的"双子星"走向两极？这场分化背后，是神话破灭还是理性回归？ 一、片仔癀：从"药茅"到"跌茅"，神话为何崩塌？ 2. 价格体系崩塌，存货堆积成山 作为核心产品的片仔癀锭剂，价格崩塌成为危机的直观写照。2021年被炒至1600元/粒的"天价神药"，如今二级市场回收价仅400-500元/粒，电商平台自营 售价低至599元/粒，甚至低于760元的官方指导价，出现明显"价格倒挂"。 分区域数据更能反映市场的萎缩态势：除华南地区（+7.28%）、西北地区（+3.95%）外，其余地区营收均大幅下滑。 价格暴跌背后是需求的急剧萎缩，有零售商透露："现在一个月可能也卖不了几颗，消费者对高价片仔癀已经不买账了。" 需求疲软直接导致存货激增，截至2025年9月末，片仔癀存货余额达到61.6亿元的历史高位，较2022年末的27亿元增幅超一倍，产品滞销问题严峻。 四年时间，片仔癀的A股神话近乎归零，多重危机叠加让其难以招 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the focus on large tech stocks and AI-related companies, traditional oil refining companies have seen significant gains, with their performance nearly matching that of leading AI infrastructure firms like Nvidia and Broadcom [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major refining companies such as Valero Energy Corp and Marathon Petroleum Corp have seen stock price increases of at least 30% this year, outperforming approximately 90% of S&P 500 constituents, including tech giants like Microsoft and Apple [2]. - Smaller refining firms like Par Pacific Holdings Inc. and CVR Energy Inc. have experienced even stronger stock performance, with Par Pacific's stock doubling and CVR Energy's stock rising by 83% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Profitability Factors - The profitability of global refining companies has significantly increased due to falling crude oil prices and stable gasoline prices, leading to expanded profit margins [3]. - The market anticipates further declines in Brent crude oil prices, which could enhance the earnings outlook for refineries and catalyze additional stock price increases [1][9]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The weight of energy stocks, including oil and gas, in the S&P 500 index has been steadily declining, currently accounting for less than 3% [6]. - The so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech giants dominate the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, comprising about 35% of their market weight, while also benefiting from the AI boom [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that as oil prices decline, it is typical to sell large oil company stocks and buy refining stocks, which may have a "scarcity value" due to the limited number of new facilities being built [11]. - The recent proposal to exempt small refineries from renewable fuel standards could serve as a tailwind for the sector, contributing to stock price increases for mid-sized refiners [11]. - Factors such as attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, low diesel inventories, and unprecedented electricity demand from AI data centers create a unique bullish outlook for the refining sector over the next 6-12 months [12].