"纽约Talk·郭胜北华尔街前线洞察" 年度专栏 重磅来袭！立即订阅 本栏目嘉宾老师介绍： 上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔意外在杰克逊霍尔会议上释放鸽派信号，导致美国三大股指大幅上涨？ 鲍威尔这次为何不重视通胀，反而大提就业压力？ 9月美联储将已经成为定局了吗？ 降息后，美国财政就能万事大吉了吗？ 本期纽约Talk，GSB奖台基金创始人、原德意志银行董事总经理【郭胜北】将带您用一节课鲍威尔立场转变背后最需要关注的市场变量 纽约 Talk 第2季 分享在美国的所见所闻,打通经济数据与日常生活之问的壁垒; 3.华尔街回忆录 对过去郭胜北亲身经历的重大金融事件进行复盘, 以史为鉴,对未来市场进行展望; © 四大内容品类 1. 全球金融热点直击 针对市场突发事件及美联储议息会议等重要会议 第一时间分享其深刻的见解 2.华尔街见闻录 4. 复盘笔记 定期分享其在日常交易中的思考与见解, 并分享使用的交易工具及有价值的套利策略。 近期内容预告 1. 宏观博弈的整体性思考 -- 2025年市场 交易主线 2. 大宗商品市场的新机遇 -- 2024与2025 年为何不同? 3. 主权基金行为对于市场影响的解读 33年交易老将 华尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the US economy is on the brink of recession due to a series of weak economic data and stagnation in consumer spending [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show economic stagnation, with consumer spending at a standstill and declines in construction and manufacturing sectors [1] - Employment is expected to weaken, with signs of a significant freeze in hiring and a reduction in average working hours [1] Inflation and Policy Impact - High inflation complicates potential policy support from the Federal Reserve, impacting overall economic stability [1] - Zandi attributes much of the current economic slowdown to policy choices in Washington, including tariffs that erode corporate profits and household purchasing power [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate remains low primarily due to stagnant labor growth, a decrease in immigrant labor, and a declining labor participation rate [1] - The reduction in immigration limits the overall growth potential of the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "本科生回炉" (undergraduate students returning to vocational schools) is gaining attention, particularly with Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College's 2025 enrollment plan that specifies certain programs will only accept undergraduate graduates, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "本升专" (undergraduate to vocational) [1][3]. Group 1: Enrollment Trends - Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College has increased its enrollment of undergraduate students from 30 in 2022 to a planned 135 in 2023, highlighting a growing trend of undergraduates seeking vocational education [2]. - Other vocational institutions, such as Guangdong Lingnan Vocational Technical College and Shandong Qingdao Technician College, have also started offering programs specifically for undergraduates looking to retrain [3]. Group 2: Employment Challenges - A report by Zhilian Recruitment indicates that undergraduates face difficulties in the job market, where positions requiring higher education often favor master's and doctoral candidates, while practical skill-based roles are better suited for vocational graduates [4]. - The increasing pressure of employment has led many undergraduates to consider vocational training as a viable path to transition into more stable job opportunities [5]. Group 3: Student Experiences - Interviews with students who returned to vocational training reveal motivations such as job security and the desire to acquire practical skills that are in demand [6]. - Students enrolled in "订单班" (order classes) report mixed experiences, with some finding the promised job placements to be less reliable than advertised, often resulting in labor contracts rather than direct employment [19][23]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The trend of undergraduates pursuing vocational education reflects a broader shift in the labor market, where blue-collar jobs are becoming increasingly attractive due to competitive salaries and job stability [41]. - The average monthly salary for blue-collar workers has risen significantly, indicating a narrowing wage gap between blue-collar and white-collar jobs, which may further encourage undergraduates to seek vocational training [41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of military and police academies among students due to rising admission scores and job security concerns amid a challenging employment landscape [1][2][3][26]. - The admission scores for military and police academies have significantly increased, with the highest score reaching 671 points for the National University of Defense Technology, closely approaching the scores of top universities like Tsinghua and Peking University [1][16][24]. - The employment situation for graduates is becoming increasingly dire, with 12.22 million graduates entering the job market this year, leading students to prioritize stable job opportunities [4][28]. Group 2 - Data shows that the offer acquisition rate for recent graduates is lower for bachelor's and master's degree holders compared to those with associate degrees, prompting students to consider "iron rice bowl" jobs in military and police sectors [5][28]. - The National University of Defense Technology and various police academies have reported high admission rates and full enrollment, indicating strong demand for these programs [8][9][10][29]. - The employment rate for graduates from police academies is notably high, with some institutions reporting a graduation employment rate of 99.44% for police-related majors, significantly higher than the average for other fields [29][30]. Group 3 - The trend of students choosing military and police academies reflects a shift in priorities towards job stability and security, as evidenced by the increasing scores and enrollment in these institutions [26][27]. - Other institutions, such as Shanghai Customs College and Beijing Electronic Technology College, are also gaining popularity due to their high employment rates and perceived job security, further diversifying the landscape of higher education choices [31][37]. - The articles emphasize that the focus on stable employment is reshaping the decision-making process for students when filling out college applications, with many opting for programs that promise better job prospects [28][39].