Core Viewpoint - The increasing trend of civil service examinations among young people is a rational risk management decision based on current employment conditions, rather than a sign of lost dreams or conservatism [1][4][11]. Group 1: Examination Trends - The number of candidates for the national civil service examination surpassed that of graduate school entrance examinations for the first time in history in 2026, with a significant increase from 157.6 million in 2021 to 371.8 million in 2026, marking a growth rate of 235.9% [2][4]. - In contrast, the number of graduate school applicants has been declining rapidly, with a drop from a peak of 4.74 million in 2023 to 3.43 million in 2026, a decrease of over 1.3 million [2][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for civil service positions is intense, with an admission ratio of approximately 98:1 for the national examination compared to 3.2:1 for graduate school [4]. - The phenomenon of "civil service examination fever" reflects a broader societal anxiety that transcends age and class, indicating a shift from a growth-oriented mindset to one focused on job security and stability [4][19]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of failing the civil service examination can lead to significant career disadvantages, including lower starting salaries and limited advancement opportunities, as candidates return to the job market with gaps in their resumes [6][8]. - The current employment pressure is characterized as a systemic anxiety affecting various demographics, including young graduates and middle-aged workers, indicating a shift away from the belief that hard work guarantees better outcomes [19]. Group 4: Changing Definitions of "Good Jobs" - The definition of a "good job" has shifted from seeking high growth opportunities to prioritizing job security and stability, reflecting a broader change in societal values and economic conditions [9][11]. - The current job market emphasizes the importance of practical skills and experience over academic credentials, leading to a more competitive environment for graduates [23][24]. Group 5: Structural Employment Issues - There exists a structural mismatch in the job market, where the increase in job postings does not align with the expectations of recent graduates, leading to a perception of difficulty in finding suitable employment [13][14]. - The employment landscape is increasingly complex, with various groups, including young graduates, middle-aged workers, and small business owners, facing unique challenges that contribute to a pervasive sense of job insecurity [19][18].

（原标题：对话李燕萍："考公热"深刻塑造一代年轻人） 12月11日，武汉大学二级教授、中国人力资源开发研究会副会长李燕萍在专访中表示，"考公热"并非年 轻人"失去梦想"或"变得保守"，恰恰相反，这是他们在当前就业形势下，基于可获得的信息和对未来的 理性预期，所做出的最"精明"、最"理性"的风险管理决策。 但早期劣势会像"疤痕"一样，在考公失败人群的整个职业生涯中持续存在，甚至导致长期的收入损失和 晋升困难。长期来看，"考公热"将深刻改变一代人的职业轨迹，甚至影响未来的经济结构。 自二十世纪90年代起，李燕萍就持续观察、研究中国的就业市场和人力资源开发与管理，先后主编、参 编著作或教材16部。 她表示，当前的就业压力，其深刻性在于它不再是特定人群的短期困难，而是一种跨越年龄、阶层并相 互影响的焦虑：年轻人找不到理想工作，会加剧"内卷"；中年人被优化，会减少家庭消费，冲击小微企 业的生存；小微企业倒闭，又会进一步减少就业岗位。这种连锁反应，标志着社会已告别那个"只要努 力就能更好"的单向增长时代。 在国考（国考为中央机关及其直属机构招录公务员考试，人数指通过用人单位资格审查的人数）人数连 续多年低于考研人数后，2 ...

大家好，我是乔叔，今天带大家聊聊惠普盈利还大裁员这事，咱们看看背后职场和技术到底发生了什 么。 惠普在2025年年末的一纸裁员公告，把原本还在庆祝业绩喜人的员工瞬间打回了现实。公司明明赚钱 了，第四季度收入比去年涨了，个人电脑也卖得越来越火，可就是在这种情况下一下子要砍掉全球4000 到6000名正式工。 这不是第一次裁员，之前公司已经有人被请出局。眼下，这一次的力度更猛。最焦虑的还是那些四十多 岁的老员工，年纪不上不下，这么多年积累下来的本事，一夜之间变得无用武之地。 他们很难不琢磨，这回要'更新换代'的是不是自己这批人。 集体裁撤不是孤例 其实不仅仅是惠普突然这样收缩。就在对面，亚马逊营收业绩也挺好，可三番五次地精简管理人员和行 政岗位，微软、英特尔等一大票高科技企业也是裁员力度空前，一年下来加起来从这里流失的工作岗位 都能让人头晕。 科技行业过去大家都想着招兵买马，这阵风却刮得让"多养人"成了负担。 尤其是那些后台、客服、行政这些岗位，早就被各种新技术盯上了。这场风潮，并非苦日子的无奈选 择，更像是在主动给公司洗牌和瘦身。 隐形推手：资本和效率的冷眼 这些公司"日子还行"为啥也拼命裁人？其实背后的挑战很 ...

"房子现在真成'不动产'了——想动都动不了。"一位中介朋友最近在朋友圈这样调侃。他手里压着十几套二手房，最久的一套挂了半年，看房 的人寥寥无几。 这并非个例。最新公布的70城房价数据显示，新房和二手房环比跌幅双双创下年内新高。曾经坚挺的一线城市也未能幸免，更不用说那些早就 进入下行通道的二三线城市。 数字背后的寒意 "政策工具箱里的工具正在减少。"某智库研究员表示，"每次政策出台后市场的反应持续时间越来越短，效果也在递减。"这不仅关系到房地产 市场本身，更关乎宏观政策的公信力。 经济连锁反应已现 打开手机，各种房价下跌的消息扑面而来。统计局的权威数据证实了这种感受：从4月份开始，各线城市房价全面转跌，到了年底，这种下跌 趋势不但没有缓和，反而在加速。 "现在的情况就像推倒了多米诺骨牌。"一位不愿具名的分析师坦言，"一个区域降价，周边小区不得不跟着调价，形成了恶性循环。" 政策面临的考验 更值得关注的是，这场下跌正在考验政策的效力。从去年底到今年，高层会议多次强调要"稳楼市"，7月份还特别提到要"巩固止跌回稳的苗 头"。然而，密集的政策出台后，市场并未给出预期的回应。 房价下跌的影响，正像涟漪一样扩散到整个经济 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell unexpectedly released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, leading to a significant rise in the three major U.S. stock indices [2] - Powell's shift in focus from inflation to employment pressures raises questions about the Fed's stance in September [2] - The implications of potential interest rate cuts on U.S. fiscal health are being debated [2] Group 2 - The upcoming content will cover macroeconomic strategies for the 2025 market and new opportunities in the commodity market for 2024 and 2025 [4] - Insights into the behavior of sovereign funds and their impact on the market will also be discussed [4]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the US economy is on the brink of recession due to a series of weak economic data and stagnation in consumer spending [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show economic stagnation, with consumer spending at a standstill and declines in construction and manufacturing sectors [1] - Employment is expected to weaken, with signs of a significant freeze in hiring and a reduction in average working hours [1] Inflation and Policy Impact - High inflation complicates potential policy support from the Federal Reserve, impacting overall economic stability [1] - Zandi attributes much of the current economic slowdown to policy choices in Washington, including tariffs that erode corporate profits and household purchasing power [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate remains low primarily due to stagnant labor growth, a decrease in immigrant labor, and a declining labor participation rate [1] - The reduction in immigration limits the overall growth potential of the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "本科生回炉" (undergraduate students returning to vocational schools) is gaining attention, particularly with Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College's 2025 enrollment plan that specifies certain programs will only accept undergraduate graduates, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "本升专" (undergraduate to vocational) [1][3]. Group 1: Enrollment Trends - Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College has increased its enrollment of undergraduate students from 30 in 2022 to a planned 135 in 2023, highlighting a growing trend of undergraduates seeking vocational education [2]. - Other vocational institutions, such as Guangdong Lingnan Vocational Technical College and Shandong Qingdao Technician College, have also started offering programs specifically for undergraduates looking to retrain [3]. Group 2: Employment Challenges - A report by Zhilian Recruitment indicates that undergraduates face difficulties in the job market, where positions requiring higher education often favor master's and doctoral candidates, while practical skill-based roles are better suited for vocational graduates [4]. - The increasing pressure of employment has led many undergraduates to consider vocational training as a viable path to transition into more stable job opportunities [5]. Group 3: Student Experiences - Interviews with students who returned to vocational training reveal motivations such as job security and the desire to acquire practical skills that are in demand [6]. - Students enrolled in "订单班" (order classes) report mixed experiences, with some finding the promised job placements to be less reliable than advertised, often resulting in labor contracts rather than direct employment [19][23]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The trend of undergraduates pursuing vocational education reflects a broader shift in the labor market, where blue-collar jobs are becoming increasingly attractive due to competitive salaries and job stability [41]. - The average monthly salary for blue-collar workers has risen significantly, indicating a narrowing wage gap between blue-collar and white-collar jobs, which may further encourage undergraduates to seek vocational training [41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of military and police academies among students due to rising admission scores and job security concerns amid a challenging employment landscape [1][2][3][26]. - The admission scores for military and police academies have significantly increased, with the highest score reaching 671 points for the National University of Defense Technology, closely approaching the scores of top universities like Tsinghua and Peking University [1][16][24]. - The employment situation for graduates is becoming increasingly dire, with 12.22 million graduates entering the job market this year, leading students to prioritize stable job opportunities [4][28]. Group 2 - Data shows that the offer acquisition rate for recent graduates is lower for bachelor's and master's degree holders compared to those with associate degrees, prompting students to consider "iron rice bowl" jobs in military and police sectors [5][28]. - The National University of Defense Technology and various police academies have reported high admission rates and full enrollment, indicating strong demand for these programs [8][9][10][29]. - The employment rate for graduates from police academies is notably high, with some institutions reporting a graduation employment rate of 99.44% for police-related majors, significantly higher than the average for other fields [29][30]. Group 3 - The trend of students choosing military and police academies reflects a shift in priorities towards job stability and security, as evidenced by the increasing scores and enrollment in these institutions [26][27]. - Other institutions, such as Shanghai Customs College and Beijing Electronic Technology College, are also gaining popularity due to their high employment rates and perceived job security, further diversifying the landscape of higher education choices [31][37]. - The articles emphasize that the focus on stable employment is reshaping the decision-making process for students when filling out college applications, with many opting for programs that promise better job prospects [28][39].