大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾： 第一篇：《 跑赢纳斯达克的柏基，是如何做成长股投资的？ 》 柏基的成长风格投资 最近的螺丝钉带你读书，咱们介绍的，是今年出来的一本投资好书《柏基投资之道》。 柏基是比较少有的，在成长风格中做的比较好的机构。 柏基的成长风格投资，立足于对未来趋势的判断。 以大家熟悉的指数基金为例。 十多年前，螺丝钉做指数基金估值和定投。 当时指数基金的规模并不大，全国的指数基金，活跃投资者数量只有百万级别，指数基金总规模只有几千亿。 一些投资者认为，指数基金适合欧美等成熟市场，A股有效性低，在A股指数基金不一定能发展起来。 这离不开第一性原理。 第一性原理：以指数基金为例 了解 ...

前阵子有个粉丝跟我说，追热门基金三个月没涨就慌了，赶紧赎回换了一只，结果刚卖完，之前那只就 涨了20%。这事是不是很多人都经历过？说实话，我早年跑财经新闻时，采访过一位老投资人，他 说"中长线就像种麦子，春播秋收得等时节"，这话我记了20年，也验证了20年。 家人们，冬至安康！今天不管你吃饺子还是汤圆，帮主都想借着这碗热乎饭，跟大家掏心窝子唠3分钟 ——做了20年财经记者，见过太多投资里的起起落落，其实中长线赚钱真没那么难，关键就俩字：耐 心！ 咱普通人做中长线，别跟市场比反应快，要比谁看得远、守得住。不用猜短期涨跌，不用跟风追热点， 就抓两个核心：一是选对赛道，挑符合国家发展趋势的行业；二是选对标的，找业绩稳、基本面扎实的 优质资产。然后设个合理预期，别想着一夜暴富，投资不是赌博，慢一点才稳一点。 今天冬至，阴极之至，阳气始生，就像咱们的中长线投资，看似沉寂的阶段，其实都在积蓄力量。那些 熬得住寂寞的人，最后都能等到花开。 最后，帮主祝大家冬至快乐、暖意常伴！跟着我，咱们不追短期波动，只做长期正确的事，在中长线里 稳稳赚钱、慢慢变富！记住，真正的投资赢家，从来都是懂得"慢赢"的人，未来咱们一起加油！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and long-term holding in value investing, highlighting that true wealth is generated by identifying and holding onto exceptional companies over time [3][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Frederick R. Kobrick advocates for a two-pronged approach to investing: selecting outstanding companies and maintaining patience in holding their stocks [3]. - The BASM framework (Business model, Assumptions, Strategy, Management) is introduced as a reliable method for identifying companies with growth potential [3][11]. - The article stresses that many investors fail to achieve significant wealth because they lack the patience to hold onto their investments long enough [5][6]. Group 2: Importance of Patience - Patience is highlighted as a critical factor in successful investing, with the assertion that many investors who correctly time the market do not ultimately profit due to their inability to hold [5][6]. - Historical examples, such as Circuit City, illustrate how patience can lead to substantial returns, with stock prices potentially increasing significantly over time [14][19]. - The article warns against the common mistake of selling stocks prematurely after short-term gains, which can result in missing out on much larger profits [8][9]. Group 3: Metrics for Evaluation - Investors are encouraged to focus on specific performance metrics, such as Return on Capital (ROC) and Return on Equity (ROE), to assess a company's growth potential [11][12]. - The importance of comparing companies within the same industry using common metrics is emphasized to identify true winners [12]. - The article suggests that understanding a company's operational capabilities and market position is crucial for making informed investment decisions [17][20]. Group 4: Case Studies - The article references Coca-Cola as an example of a company that can yield significant returns for patient investors, particularly during market downturns [19][20]. - The narrative of Circuit City demonstrates how a well-executed business strategy can lead to remarkable stock performance, even in challenging economic conditions [14][19]. - The article concludes that maintaining a long-term perspective and understanding the underlying business fundamentals can provide investors with opportunities to capitalize on market volatility [20][21].

Market Overview - Recent market volatility has led to a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index supported by bank stocks while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced significant declines, with trading volume dropping below 1.2 trillion [3] - The current market environment tests investors' patience, as chasing stocks that are rising can lead to losses [3] Investment Strategy - The concept of "patience" is emphasized as crucial for successful investing, likening stock trading to fishing where one must wait for the right moment [3] - A specific investment strategy called "half-position snowball" is introduced, which involves using moving averages for navigation and managing risk through position control [4] - An example is provided where a stock was bought at a lower price during a downturn, leading to a significant profit when the stock rebounded [3][4] Market Signals - Investors are advised to look for specific signals when considering entering or exiting positions, such as volume shrinkage, stabilization candlesticks, and fundamental catalysts for buying, while signs like increased retail investor accounts and media hype indicate selling opportunities [4] - The recent implementation of new regulations on algorithmic trading is expected to reduce short-term market fluctuations, benefiting long-term investors by allowing a return to fundamental analysis [4] International Impact - International developments, such as Trump's threat to impose tariffs on 14 countries, may affect sectors like semiconductors and automotive in the A-share market, but companies with core technologies that can pass on costs may emerge stronger [5] - The importance of patience in holding investments during turbulent times is reiterated, suggesting that true opportunities arise when the market stabilizes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in investment while also highlighting the necessity for quick decision-making when the right opportunities arise. It argues that maintaining patience is essential for enabling rapid actions in investment scenarios [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The discussion at the Berkshire shareholder meeting reflected a shift towards more significant topics such as tariffs, national fortune, and government efficiency, contrasting with the usual light-heartedness [2]. - Warren Buffett and Abel's responses underscored the importance of quick action in investment, suggesting that patience and rapid decision-making are not mutually exclusive but rather complementary [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Skills - The article draws parallels between sports and investment, stating that the ability to make split-second decisions in sports is a result of extensive training, similar to how investment decisions require years of preparation and skill development [3]. - Key investment skills include business model analysis, competitive advantage assessment, financial analysis, demand analysis, and research strategies, all of which are essential for making informed investment decisions [3]. Group 3: Value Investing - Successful value investors often exhibit consistent patience, which is reflected more in the decisions they choose not to make rather than just the successful ones they execute [3]. - The article suggests that unlike sports, investment does not have a time constraint, allowing investors to take their time to observe and analyze before making decisions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between Howard Marks and Morgan Housel emphasizes the significant impact of debt on investment behavior, highlighting the dual-edged sword effect of leverage and the historical lessons for investors [2][4]. Group 1: Debt and Investment Behavior - Debt is not merely a mathematical issue; it involves philosophical and psychological aspects, as excessive debt limits the range of acceptable fluctuations in life [2][3]. - Marks points out that financial troubles often stem from debt, and having no outstanding debt can prevent situations like forced liquidation or bankruptcy [2][4]. - The concept of leverage is critical; higher leverage combined with volatile assets can lead to substantial losses, sometimes even catastrophic [2][4]. Group 2: Personal Financial Management - Housel shares his personal financial strategy of maintaining zero debt, which he believes enhances stability and maximizes endurance in investments [3][4]. - Both experts agree that maintaining low debt levels is essential for achieving long-term investment returns, as it allows investors to better manage risks associated with market fluctuations [4]. - Understanding the influence of debt on the capacity to endure volatility is crucial for managing personal and family finances effectively [4].