以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 真正厉害的投资人，从来不是先定好要赚多少，而是先问一句：我要冒多大的风险？然后再判断：值不值 得去冒这个险 。 " 2007年10月，金融危机的前夜，赛斯·卡拉曼 （ Seth A. Klarman ） 走进麻省理工 （ MIT）， 进行 了 一场 极其经典的、具有预言般的演 讲。 那时的美国市场表面 似乎 平静：楼市泡沫还没破、杠杆游戏还在疯狂、评级机构还在为各种结构化产品盖 章背书。大多数人相信，繁荣还能持续。 但卡拉曼没有讲走势、也没有预测崩盘，而是反复强调一件事：市场的喧嚣、模型的优雅、回报的诱惑，往 往会让人忘了最基本的问题 ——你为这些回报承担了什么风险？ 很多人知道卡拉曼，是因为那本在投资圈流传甚广的《安全边际》。这本书长期绝版，一度在 eBay上被炒 到 2500美元 一本。它 的 稀缺 不单单是 因为绝版，更因为做起来太难。 在短期主义盛行、市场信息喧嚣的时代，坚持卡拉曼那种慢、谨慎、敬畏风险的风格，本身就不容易。 而他自己，是少数真正做到了 "低调但不妥协"的人。 1982年，卡拉曼25岁， 联合 创立了 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate between active and passive investment strategies, highlighting the increasing popularity of passive investing and its implications for active investors [5][31]. - It emphasizes that the success of active investing relies on the existence of "inefficient" market participants, allowing skilled investors to capitalize on their mistakes [7][10]. - The article presents three viable paths for beating the market: defeating "foolish money," seeking "different money," and managing investment behavior [5][22][24]. Group 2 - The first path, defeating "foolish money," suggests that skilled investors can profit from less competent market participants, as demonstrated by successful investors like Warren Buffett [10][12]. - The second path involves recognizing that not all market participants are "foolish," but rather have different risk perceptions, which can lead to mispricing of assets [16][22]. - The third path focuses on behavioral finance, illustrating how managing emotions and adhering to investment discipline can lead to superior returns compared to passive strategies [24][28]. Group 3 - The article concludes that as more investors shift towards passive strategies, the opportunities for excess returns may become scarcer, but active investors can still find advantages through behavioral biases in the market [33][34]. - It highlights that the competition in the investment landscape is intense, and success will depend more on relative skill levels rather than absolute skill levels [34].

Core Insights - Quantitative investment has evolved from a niche strategy to a crucial component in China's public fund market, with total scale exceeding 400 billion yuan by Q3 2025 [1] - Bodao Fund has emerged as a leading player in the quantitative space, managing approximately 27 billion yuan, showcasing how smaller firms can leverage quantitative strategies for growth [1] Group 1: Evolution of Quantitative Investment - The development of Bodao Fund's quantitative business reflects a continuous competition with market effectiveness, starting from private equity and launching live trading in 2013 [2] - The firm successfully navigated market challenges, including the "black swan" event in 2014, by employing the Barra risk model, which laid the groundwork for growth in 2015 [2] - In 2023, Bodao's quantitative team integrated AI methodologies across the entire process, resulting in a performance improvement of approximately 30-40% [2] Group 2: Investment Methodology - The "Dual Equilibrium" multi-factor model is central to Bodao's pursuit of excess returns, focusing on accurately predicting price through earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4] - The first equilibrium balances traditional human-driven frameworks with AI-driven processes, each contributing 50% to the overall strategy [4] - The second equilibrium ensures that factor sources are evenly weighted between predicting EPS trends and PE fluctuations, thus capturing both long-term growth and short-term mean reversion opportunities [4] Group 3: Product Strategy - Bodao Fund has established a clear "Index+" product matrix, which includes standard index enhancements, flexible strategies, and Smart Beta products [5] - All products in the "Index+" series are designed to enhance returns, addressing the significant excess return potential still present in the A-share market [5] - The firm suggests that for individual investors, actively managed funds may require careful selection, while quantitative products can serve as a stable core in investment portfolios [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence in the future of quantitative investment in China, noting a shift in investor focus from high volatility to stable excess returns [5]

Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry in China has seen a significant shift, with quantitative funds now surpassing subjective funds in number among the hundred billion-level private equity firms, marking a pivotal change in the investment landscape [2][6]. Group 1: Market Environment Changes - The market has transitioned from a "wild" era characterized by slow information dissemination and significant mispricing to a more civilized and efficient environment [8][15]. - In the past, the market was dominated by retail investors, leading to prolonged deviations of stock prices from their intrinsic values [10][12]. - The current market environment, influenced by technological advancements and macroeconomic changes, presents greater challenges for subjective fund managers, as mispricing opportunities have become shorter and more complex [17][20]. Group 2: Investment Products and Tools - The availability of investment products and tools has evolved from scarcity to abundance, with the introduction of stock index futures in 2010 marking a turning point for quantitative strategies [26][27]. - The diversification of trading products has led to the emergence of various innovative quantitative strategies, providing more profit opportunities [29][31]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Technological progress has played a crucial role in the rise of quantitative strategies, with the volume of data available for analysis significantly exceeding that of subjective approaches [33][35]. - Quantitative strategies benefit from faster execution and continuous improvements in computational power, enhancing their effectiveness compared to subjective strategies [37][39]. - The distinction between subjective and quantitative investment lies in their methodologies, with subjective investment relying on individual insight and quantitative investment relying on data and algorithms [39].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment philosophy of Victor Haghani and James White, emphasizing the importance of understanding risk management and human capital in long-term wealth preservation [4][6][30]. - It highlights the challenges faced by wealthy families over generations, questioning why many have failed to maintain their wealth [6][30]. - The authors advocate for a systematic approach to investing, focusing on dynamic risk management rather than emotional decision-making [5][20][24]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Victor Haghani's career reflects a significant shift from aggressive arbitrage strategies to advocating for low-cost, diversified global equity investments after experiencing market inefficiencies [5][17]. - The book "The Disappearing Billionaires" explores the mystery of why historically wealthy families have lost their fortunes, attributing it to poor risk management and spending decisions [6][30]. - The authors propose that maximizing human capital is essential for financial freedom, complemented by prudent investment strategies [6][30]. Group 2: Risk Management - The article emphasizes the difficulty of consistently profiting from market inefficiencies due to the presence of many intelligent market participants [16][19]. - Haghani's experience with Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) led to a reevaluation of the risks associated with leverage and concentrated positions in investment strategies [17][19]. - The authors argue that a rules-based investment strategy can help investors manage risk more effectively, adapting to changing market conditions [26][37]. Group 3: Human Capital and Wealth Preservation - The article stresses the importance of recognizing and maximizing human capital, particularly for younger individuals, as a foundation for long-term financial success [33][34]. - It suggests that individuals should regularly review their financial plans, especially during significant life events, to ensure alignment with their financial goals [35]. - The authors caution against relying solely on investment returns for wealth accumulation, advocating for a balanced approach that prioritizes human capital development [46][47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment philosophy of Victor Haghani and James White, emphasizing the importance of risk management and the challenges of long-term wealth preservation, as illustrated in their book "The Disappearing Billionaires" [2][5][8]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Victor Haghani's career reflects a significant evolution in market understanding, transitioning from a belief in market efficiency to recognizing the challenges posed by irrational investor behavior [3][12]. - The establishment of Elm Wealth in 2011 embodies a systematic approach to managing long-term stock risk exposure, focusing on minimizing emotional decision-making in investment [4][5]. - The book raises the question of why wealthy families from a century ago have largely disappeared, attributing this to the complexities of risk management and spending decisions [5][34]. Group 2: Human Capital and Wealth Management - The authors argue that maximizing human capital is essential for financial freedom, suggesting that individuals should focus on risk-adjusted human capital in their career choices [8][38]. - They emphasize the importance of prudent saving habits, especially for younger individuals, to avoid over-leveraging based on unrealized human capital [39]. - The article suggests that long-term financial decisions should be revisited regularly, particularly during significant life events or changes in income [40]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article critiques the common practice of fixed asset allocation, advocating for a dynamic approach that adjusts risk exposure based on market conditions and risk premiums [26][29]. - It highlights the limitations of index investing, arguing that while it is a good strategy, it may not be sufficient in all market conditions [31][33]. - The authors assert that the primary goal of investing should be wealth preservation rather than wealth accumulation, with a focus on human capital as the main driver of financial independence [52][53].

Group 1 - The resurgence of quantitative investment is highlighted by the popularity of DeepSeek, shifting public perception from viewing it as merely "cutting leeks" to a more positive and professional evaluation [1] - The ability to replicate DeepSeek by other quantitative private equity firms is questioned, with emphasis on the unique hardware resources and early investments made by firms like Huansheng Quantitative [2][3] - The distinction between investment and research is emphasized, noting that significant profits are necessary for firms to engage in technology development like DeepSeek [3] Group 2 - Concerns about "cutting leeks" in quantitative investment are addressed, with a definition focusing on the illegality of obtaining trading advantages rather than the outcomes of investments [4] - The gap between retail investors and institutions is narrowing as brokers provide algorithmic trading tools to retail investors, reducing the execution advantage previously held by quantitative firms [5] - Quantitative strategies are based on statistical analysis and data processing, allowing firms to avoid emotional decision-making and enhance market efficiency [5][6] Group 3 - The debate around high-frequency trading (HFT) is ongoing, with some quantitative firms supporting regulations to limit excessive HFT practices, particularly in futures markets [7][8] - Regulatory bodies are increasingly focused on improving the oversight of quantitative trading, indicating a trend towards more stringent regulations in the future [9] - The effectiveness of quantitative investment in enhancing market efficiency is acknowledged, with evidence suggesting that increased quantitative activity has led to reduced volatility in major indices [10][11] Group 4 - The role of quantitative investment in national financial security is emphasized, with calls for the development of world-class domestic quantitative firms to compete internationally [13][14] - The global landscape shows a significant adoption of quantitative strategies among top asset management firms, with a notable gap in market share between domestic and international quantitative investments [14] - The potential for domestic quantitative firms to expand into international markets is recognized, driven by advancements in technology and talent [14]

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for public fund dividends continues to rise, with total dividends approaching 90 billion yuan this year, marking a 1.4 times increase compared to the same period last year and reaching a three-year high [1] - Equity funds have shown a significant increase in dividend distribution, with the total dividend amount being nearly seven times that of the same period last year [1] - The trend of increasing dividends has become a consensus among many fund companies, driven by public fund reforms that emphasize investor returns over scale [1] Group 2 - ETFs have emerged as a major contributor to equity fund dividends, accounting for 70% of the total dividend amount in this category this year, with 20 ETFs distributing dividends five times or more [2] - Many high-performing equity funds have also increased their dividend distributions, with over 80% of equity funds that have distributed dividends this year showing positive returns over the past year [2] - The combination of "regular dividends + excess return distribution" is expected to be adopted by more fund companies as market effectiveness improves and economic recovery expectations strengthen [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Companies that adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences are more likely to succeed in the long term [1] - The article discusses specific sectors that are expected to perform well, including technology and renewable energy, due to their growth potential [1]