Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2605 contract rose 1.99% to close at 6,408 yuan/ton. Last week, new maintenance devices were added, causing a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE decreased. Factory and social inventories changed differently, and the pace of total inventory reduction slowed down. Oil - and coal - based process costs decreased, and profits slightly recovered. There are no new maintenance or restart devices this week, and the impact of previously shut - down production capacity may lead to a further decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. From December to January next year, with continuous capacity release and limited impact of device maintenance, the industry is expected to remain in a high - supply stage. The agricultural film is in the off - season, and the operating rate continues to decline; the demand for packaging film is limited, and it is difficult to support the demand. Due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 6,220 and resistance around 6,600 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the main contract closing at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the 1 - month contract at 6,350 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; the 5 - month contract at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; and the 9 - month contract at 6,445 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 668,755 lots, up 1,921 lots, and the open interest was 540,352 lots, down 41,207 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 58, down 8. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 462,058 lots, down 24,701 lots; the short positions were 547,783 lots, down 40,729 lots; and the net long positions were - 85,725 lots, up 16,028 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,273.48 yuan/ton, down 50.43 yuan; in East China, it was 6,378.37 yuan/ton, down 18.84 yuan. The basis was - 134.52, down 162.43 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 57.75 US dollars/barrel, up 0.24 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 542.25 US dollars/ton, up 2.37 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 746 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 83.86%, down 0.25 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.96%, down 0.63 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 45.18%, down 1.22 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.64%, up 0.82 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.4%, up 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.1%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.1%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, China's total polyethylene production was 679,600 tons, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. From December 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.6% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 0.6%. As of December 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 488,700 tons, an increase of 3.65% from the previous period; as of December 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene in sample warehouses was 458,600 tons, a decrease of 5.99% from the previous period. From December 3rd to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.86% to 6,937 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 182.71 yuan/ton to - 287.29 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 3.88% to 6,575 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 25.71 yuan/ton to - 41.14 yuan/ton [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - L2601 oscillated weakly and closed at 6,985 yuan/ton. Last week, some petrochemical plants had parking and restart operations, leading to a narrow decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream开工率 of PE increased slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and social inventory decreased. The cost of the oil - making process decreased slightly but the loss deepened, while the cost of the coal - making process increased significantly and the profit shrank greatly. This week, some plants are planned to stop and restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the packaging film开工率 still has room to grow. The LLDPE supply - demand improvement is not obvious, and L2601 is expected to weaken with oil prices in the short term, with technical attention on the support of the 10 - day moving average near 6,939 [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,985 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6,985 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,062 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,101 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The trading volume was 220,120 lots, down 21,326 lots; the open interest was 519,487 lots, down 4,375 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 77, down 11. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 387,932 lots, down 1,640 lots; the short position was 463,503 lots, down 102 lots; the net long position was - 75,571 lots, down 1,538 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,042.17 yuan/ton, up 4.35 yuan; in East China, it was 7,175.71 yuan/ton, up 13.1 yuan. The basis was 57.17, up 43.34 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.6 US dollars per barrel, down 0.22 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.63 US dollars per ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 756 US dollars per ton, down 15 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 766 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE开工率 was 81.46%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly开工率 of PE packaging film was 52.59%, up 0.4 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of PE pipes was 32.33%, up 0.33 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of PE agricultural film was 47.11%, up 4.22 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.48%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.99%, down 0.14 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 10.2%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 17th to 23rd, China's total polyethylene production was 648,100 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period. The average开工率 of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.8% compared with the previous period. As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 514,600 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from the previous week. As of October 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 527,400 tons, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous week. From October 18th to 24th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.42% to 7,137 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 44.43 yuan/ton to - 125.14 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 4.02% to 6,769 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 301.85 yuan/ton to 192.29 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production and capacity utilization rate of PE increased significantly last week due to the restart of devices at Jilin Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, etc. The downstream start - up rate of PE increased slightly week - on - week, and the agricultural film start - up rate continued seasonal growth. The inventory of production enterprises and social inventory are in a de - stocking trend with little inventory pressure. The oil - based and coal - based costs decreased to varying degrees, and the profits were repaired. This week, affected by the maintenance of devices at Qilu Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical, the production and capacity utilization rate of PE are expected to decline month - on - month. In the long - term, the PE supply may increase significantly. The demand for downstream greenhouse films is gradually reaching the annual high, but the orders and start - up performance of agricultural films are both worse than previous years. Affected by the US's claim to impose additional tariffs on China, international oil prices fell significantly on Friday. After the previous negative factors are gradually digested, the short - term L2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6950 - 7040 [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene was 6983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7071 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 280,022 lots, an increase of 54,889 lots; the open interest was 564,785 lots, an increase of 6917 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 46, a decrease of 17; the buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 414,526 lots, an increase of 4905 lots; the sell order volume was 483,217 lots, an increase of 8308 lots; the net buy order volume was - 68,691 lots, a decrease of 3403 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7060.87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.7 yuan; the average price in East China was 7240.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The basis was 77.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.58 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 576.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 US dollars [2] - The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 781 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars; the CFR middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 786 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE start - up rate was 83.95%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene packaging film was 52.89%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; the start - up rate of polyethylene pipes was 31.67%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the start - up rate of polyethylene agricultural films was 35.61%, an increase of 2.75 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 7.66%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.03%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.33%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.34%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's total polyethylene production was 664,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points compared with the previous period [2] - From September 26th to October 9th, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.24% compared with the previous period, among which the start - up rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75% [2] - As of October 9th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 488,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.67%; as of September 30th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 382,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.50% [2] - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.37% month - on - month to 7414 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 172.86 yuan/ton to - 221 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.30% month - on - month to 6564 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 14.29 yuan/ton to 570.29 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 7307 yuan/ton. Supply-wise, last week's PE output increased by 0.14% month-on-month to 661,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.1 percentage points to 86.82%. Demand-wise, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% month-on-month last week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.8% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 13.76% month-on-month to 444,500 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.22% month-on-month to 568,700 tons, with little overall inventory pressure. With the impact of shutdown devices expanding, this week's PE output and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline month-on-month. Downstream agricultural film is transitioning to the peak season, with shed film orders gradually accumulating; food and daily chemical packaging film have sporadic order accumulations, mainly for rigid demand. Overall, PE demand is seasonally increasing. The cost situation shows that the situation of stronger supply than demand for crude oil continues, and international oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Technically, the daily K-line of L2601 should focus on the support around 7260 and the pressure around 7400 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Directory Futures Market - The closing prices of futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) with January, September, and May deliveries all declined, with decreases of 27 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton, and 15448 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 195,031 lots, and the open interest was 360,140 lots, an increase of 18,230 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was -39. The buy volume, sell volume, and net buy volume of the top 20 positions in futures all decreased, with decreases of 6846 lots and 28,450 lots respectively [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China and East China decreased, with decreases of 12.61 yuan/ton and 8.57 yuan/ton respectively. The basis was 14.39 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore and the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan decreased, with decreases of 0.03 US dollars/barrel and 1.75 US dollars/ton respectively. The CFR middle prices of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in the petrochemical industry increased by 0.12 percentage points to 84.2% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film and agricultural film changed, with the packaging film operating rate decreasing by 0.23 percentage points to 49.07%, and the agricultural film operating rate increasing by 0.75 percentage points to 13.82%. The operating rate of PE in pipes was 30% [2] Option Market - The historical volatilities of 20 - day and 40 - day polyethylene decreased, with decreases of 0.63 percentage points and 1.71 percentage points respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options of polyethylene decreased, with decreases of 7.06 percentage points and 7.04 percentage points respectively [2] Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's total polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, a 0.14% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 86.82%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 13th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 444,500 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period; as of August 15th, the polyethylene social inventory was 556,500 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous period [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - From July 11th to 17th, China's polyethylene production was 609,100 tons, a 0.52% increase, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.68%, up 0.89 percentage points [2]. - From July 11th to 17th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.64% [2]. - As of July 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 502,900 tons, a 4.99% decrease; as of July 18th, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 558,400 tons, a 4.07% increase [2]. - The total inventory pressure is not large. In July, PE maintenance plans were basically fulfilled. With the restart of shutdown devices, production and capacity utilization are expected to rise in the second half of the month [2]. - ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin's new petrochemical devices are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase industry supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [2]. - Recently, the downstream operating rate has rebounded driven by demand for packaging films, but the seasonal inflection point cannot be confirmed due to the unimproved data of agricultural film orders and operating rates [2]. - Short - term international oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertainties in US - EU tariff negotiations and OPEC +'s September output policy [2]. - Market sentiment towards previous supply - side policy benefits has subsided, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies for eliminating backward production capacity in the industry [2]. - For the daily K - line of L2509, pay attention to the support around 7230 and the resistance around 7400 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,346 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,346 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,288 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The trading volume was 313,961 lots, a decrease of 70,212 lots, and the open interest was 388,381 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots [2]. - The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts was 0, an increase of 4 [2]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 341,150 lots, a decrease of 12,098 lots; the sell order volume was 383,471 lots, an increase of 4,109 lots; the net buy order volume was - 42,321 lots, a decrease of 16,207 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,286.52 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.91 yuan; in East China, it was 7,345.37 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.9 yuan [2]. - The basis was - 1.48, an increase of 123.91 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.4 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.73 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 566.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 US dollars [2]. - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 78.21%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.59%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; for pipes, it was 28.83%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 12.46%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.02%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.56%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 11.89%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 11.88%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak supply-demand pattern of LLDPE remains unchanged, but short-term price rebounds due to oil price fluctuations need attention. Technically, for L2509, support around 6890 and resistance around 7070 should be monitored. In June, the marginal reduction of PE maintenance losses is expected. With the restart of devices such as Yulin Chemical and Zhongsha Petrochemical, this week's output and capacity utilization are forecasted to increase month-on-month. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and the product start - up rate is expected to maintain a slight downward trend. The inventory pressure is not significant [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 6963 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3. The trading volume is 250,761 lots, a decrease of 60,471 lots, and the open interest is 565,965 lots, an increase of 17,361 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts is 1, with a month - on - month increase of 6. The long position, short position, and net long position of the top 20 futures holders are 427,172 lots, 518,600 lots, and - 91,428 lots respectively, with month - on - month changes of 12,434 lots, 14,066 lots, and - 1,632 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7140.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04, and in East China is 7309.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.49. The basis is 177.43, a decrease of 6.05 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 60.83 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66, and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 561.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.13. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national start - up rate of PE in petrochemicals is 76.77%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rates of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film are 48.59%, 31.5%, and 12.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.6, 0.5, and 1.07 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene are 15.22% and 18.78% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.18 and 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options for polyethylene are 13.36% and 13.39% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.07 and 0.04 percentage points [2] Industry News - From May 23rd to 29th, China's polyethylene output was 588,900 tons, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 76.77%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points from the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.09% from the previous period. As of May 30th, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 582,700 tons, a decrease of 5.07% from the previous period. As of May 28th, the sample inventory of polyethylene producers was 482,000 tons, a decrease of 3.29% from the previous period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - L2509 rose 2.66% to close at 7,339 yuan/ton. Supply-wise, last week's PE production decreased by 0.95% month-on-month to 648,900 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.77 percentage points month-on-month to 84.07%. Demand-wise, the average operating rate of downstream products decreased by 0.20% month-on-month, continuing the seasonal decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 8.27% month-on-month to 527,800 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.99% month-on-month to 617,700 tons, with little inventory pressure. In May, the PE industry had concentrated maintenance. As the shutdown capacity increased this week, production and capacity utilization were expected to continue the downward trend. The downstream shed film and mulch film were in the off-season; the demand for packaging film was continuously affected by tariffs, with the order days decreasing month-on-month; the rigid demand for PE pipes was limited, and the demand was lower than in previous years. The reduction of US tariffs on China was beneficial for the export of terminal plastic products. In terms of cost, with the easing of trade tensions, international oil prices had recently fluctuated and risen. The L2509 still showed a bullish trend on the chart, testing the resistance around 7,400 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 7,339 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,259 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,480 yuan/ton, up 143 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,339 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan. The trading volume was 564,915 lots, up 109,842 lots; the open interest was 529,130 lots, down 7,869 lots. The price difference between the January and May contracts was -221 yuan, down 9 yuan. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 382,728 lots, down 4,214 lots; the short positions were 426,366 lots, down 7,335 lots; the net long positions were -43,638 lots, up 3,121 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,416.09 yuan/ton, up 100.87 yuan; in East China, it was 7,497.8 yuan/ton, up 124.63 yuan. The basis was 77.09 yuan, down 51.13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.32 US dollars per barrel, up 0.56 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars per ton, up 6.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars per ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.32 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 47.59%, down 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, up 0.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 19.44%, down 3.95 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 15.11%, up 2.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.52%, up 0.88 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.42%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.41%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States from 12:01 on May 14, 2025. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff on US imports was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. From May 2 to 8, China's total polyethylene production was 648,900 tons, a decrease of 0.95% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.07%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period. From May 1 to 8, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.20% from the previous period. As of May 9, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 617,700 tons, an increase of 0.99% from the previous period; as of May 14, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise sample warehouses was 527,800 tons, a decrease of 8.27% from the previous period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 oscillated weakly, closing at 7,122 yuan/ton. In the short term, L2509 is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 7,000 yuan/ton. The supply side may see a slight increase in production and capacity utilization rate. The demand side is expected to be weak, and polyethylene faces significant inventory accumulation pressure during the May Day holiday. The cost side is affected by factors such as OPEC+ potential production increase and falling international oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,122 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the trading volume was 261,574 lots, down 20,387 lots; the open interest was 490,656 lots, up 8,592 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -74,785 lots, down 10,863 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,453.18 yuan/ton, up 9.09 yuan; in East China, it was 7,431.71 yuan/ton, up 17.56 yuan. The basis was 289.19 yuan, down 27.64 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.71 US dollars/barrel, down 0.41 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 578 US dollars/ton, down 3.75 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 791 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 83.75%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.81%, up 1.25 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.83%, up 0.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 26.09%, down 4 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 22.15%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.26%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.65%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.67%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, China's polyethylene production totaled 642,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.01% compared with the previous period. As of April 29th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 414,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.31%; as of April 25th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 599,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% [2]