【核心研判与传导逻辑】在全球地缘博弈背景下，关键矿产资源的战略价值持续凸显，相 关品种的定价逻辑已从单纯供需走向 "资源安全 + 商品属性" 驱动，成为支撑板块韧性的底 层逻辑；与此同时，市场对主要经济体货币政策转向宽松的预期升温，推动 "制造业回暖" 交易主线，但目前终端需求尚未明确拐头，使得强金融属性品种缺乏基本面强力支撑，短 期行情仍以震荡为主。国内经济仍处弱修复通道，但最新数据显现积极拐点：2025 年全国 规模以上工业企业利润同比增 0.6%，12 月单月增速由负转正至 5.3%，标志工业盈利拐点正 式显现，结束连续三年下滑态势，工业经济迈入筑底回升向质效提升转型的新阶段，这一 变化是政策发力与结构优化协同作用的必然结果。从驱动逻辑看，装备制造业增速拉动整 体利润增长 2.8 个百分点，高技术制造业同步发力，印证产业升级的结构性成效，价格改 善与利润率修复对冲产出增速小幅回落的影响，三大门类利润两升一平，库存压力缓解、 回款速度加快等指标夯实了盈利修复基础。展望 2026 年，随着新型工业化推进、需求稳 步回暖及物价降幅收窄，工业企业利润有望从阶段性修复转向温和增长，此次盈利回升摆 脱规模扩张路径， ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加利润修复， 逢低做多PP5-9价差 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/24 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（现货＞期货＞成本），聚丙烯周度跌幅（现货＞期货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-2.26%，Brent原油下跌-1.92%，煤价下跌-2.14%，甲醇下跌-1.10%，乙烯上涨3.06%，丙烯上涨0.98%， 丙烷下跌-0.33%。成本端止跌反弹。 供应端：PE产能利用率86.54%，环比上涨6.11%，同比去年上涨1.00%，较5年同期下降-6.15%。PP产能利用率75.31%，环比下降- 1.70%，同比去年下降-1.12%，较5年同期下降-13.89%。PE新增产能落地，供应端压力较大。 进出口：12月 ...

Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [6][8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [9][10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and specific operations should refer to the corresponding price ranges [12][13][15]. - For black and building materials, steel prices are affected by inventory and demand, and the prices of related products such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in a range [35][37][44]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be considered for short - selling if it breaks below a certain level, and crude oil is recommended for short - term waiting and seeing [58][63][64]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may support the near - month contract, while the egg price may have different strategies for near - month and far - month contracts [88][90][92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. In December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in March, and the central bank lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - **期指基差比例**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **策略观点**: The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading is to prevent short - term market overheating. In the long run, the policy supports the capital market. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Thursday, the closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts are provided. The central bank announced the social financing scale and money supply data for 2025 and the adjustment of structural monetary policy tool interest rates [5][6]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted 1793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net investment of 1694 billion yuan [7]. - **策略观点**: The December financial data shows a stable total social financing scale. The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices and changes of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, and the US dollar index are provided. Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals, and the inflation data has an impact on the market [9]. - **策略观点**: The current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The geopolitical situation and commodity prices affect the copper price. The London copper price fell, and the Shanghai copper price rebounded after a decline. The inventory and basis information are also provided [12]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper supply is in a tight situation, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The decline in crude oil and precious metals prices led to a fall in the aluminum price. The inventory and basis information are provided [14]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is neutral to positive. The domestic inventory has a cumulative pressure, but the overseas low - inventory and strong spot support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain zinc brands [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain lead brands [19]. - **策略观点**: The lead industry situation is complex, and the lead price may follow the sector for a supplementary increase due to strong macro - sentiment [20]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price was strong. The spot price, cost, and other information are provided [22]. - **策略观点**: The nickel has a large excess pressure, but the macro - factors support the price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price continued to rise. The supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **策略观点**: Although the tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with the market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The lithium carbonate price index and contract price changes are provided. The inventory decreased, and the export tax - rebate policy adjusted [25]. - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [26]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina index fell. The basis, overseas price, and inventory information are provided [28]. - **策略观点**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling on rallies [29]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless - steel price rose. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory information are provided [30]. - **策略观点**: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell. The inventory and trading volume information are provided [32]. - **策略观点**: The cost supports the price, but the demand is average. The price is expected to move sideways in the short term [33]. Black and Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. The inventory and demand information are provided [35]. - **策略观点**: The steel production has increased slightly, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still high. Pay attention to the de - stocking progress and policy changes [36]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [37][38]. - **策略观点**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume is declining. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The coking coal price fell, and the coke price rose. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [40][41]. - **策略观点**: The coking coal price was driven by the market atmosphere and policy expectations. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks [42][44]. Glass and Soda Ash - **玻璃行情资讯**: The glass price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [46]. - **玻璃策略观点**: The glass daily melting volume has decreased, and the cost supports the price. However, the terminal demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **纯碱行情资讯**: The soda - ash price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [47]. - **纯碱策略观点**: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [47]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [48]. - **策略观点**: The commodity market sentiment may continue, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks. The future market trends are affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **工业硅行情资讯**: The industrial silicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [51]. - **工业硅策略观点**: The industrial silicon supply and demand are difficult to change significantly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [52][54]. - **多晶硅行情资讯**: The polysilicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [55]. - **多晶硅策略观点**: The polysilicon price was affected by market sentiment and policy. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [56]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate, inventory, and spot price information are provided [58][59][61]. - **策略观点**: The rubber seasonality is weak. Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider short - selling if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [62]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The crude oil price fell, and the prices of related refined products changed. The US EIA weekly data shows the inventory changes [63]. - **策略观点**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a range - trading strategy [64]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [65]. - **策略观点**: The methanol valuation is low, and the future pattern is expected to improve. It is feasible to buy on dips [66]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [67][68]. - **策略观点**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [69]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices, basis, and supply - demand information of pure benzene and styrene are provided [70]. - **策略观点**: The styrene non - integrated profit has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter [71]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory information are provided [72]. - **策略观点**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [73]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [76]. - **策略观点**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the valuation may be compressed in the medium term. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term [77]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [78]. - **策略观点**: The PTA supply is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline. It is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [79]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [80]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price in the medium term [81][82]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [83]. - **策略观点**: The PE price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price rose. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [85]. - **策略观点**: The PP supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026. The price may bottom out when the oversupply pattern changes [86]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The live pig prices in different regions changed. The northern farms are waiting for price increases, and the southern market may reduce prices to increase sales [88]. - **策略观点**: The low price and festival effect stimulate consumption. The short - term spot price may support the near - month contract. In the medium term, pay attention to the pressure on the near - contract and wait for rallies to short. In the long term, wait for price drops to go long [90]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg prices in different regions were stable or rising. The supply and demand are relatively normal, and some people are still bullish [91]. - **策略观点**: The late Spring Festival drives the near - month contract to be strong. However, the supply is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract. For the far - month contract, be cautious of over - valued pressure [92]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The protein meal futures prices were weakly volatile. The USDA data shows the global soybean production and consumption situation. The domestic soybean inventory and oil - mill operating rate are provided [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall situation is better than in 2024/25. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [95]. Oils - **行情资讯**: The oil futures prices fell. The USDA and other data show the production, consumption, and inventory situation of different oils [96][97][98]. - **策略观点**: The current fundamental situation of palm oil is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [99]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar futures price was volatile. The UNICA and other data show the sugar production and export situation in Brazil [100][101]. - **策略观点**: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support level. The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The short - term downward space of the domestic sugar price is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [102]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton futures price fell slightly. The USDA data shows the global cotton production and consumption situation. The domestic cotton inventory and spinning - mill operating rate are provided [103][104][105]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is neutral. The Zhengzhou cotton price is mainly affected by the domestic market. Wait for price corrections to go long [106].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] - For rubber, with a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [14][15] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17][18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21][23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [25][26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [30][31] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.78%, to 445.50 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 148.00 yuan/ton, or 6.07%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.51%, to 3098.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased by 0.83 million barrels (13.46%), 0.45 million barrels (19.95%), 1.69 million barrels (19.27%), and 2.97 million barrels (17.28%) respectively [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by - 3 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, and - 2.5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract rose 23.00 yuan/ton to 2288 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 45 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was - 74 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 1814 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated strongly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the full - steel tire operating rate in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, up 3.1 tons (2.5%). Spot prices of some rubber products increased [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 126 (- 5) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1%. Factory and social inventories increased [14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [15] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5707 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene decreased by 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract rose 88 yuan/ton to 7116 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 138 yuan/ton. Supply - side upstream operating rate rose 0.22% to 70.92%, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 13.23 tons. Demand - side three - S weighted operating rate rose 0.11% to 40.90% [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 54 yuan/ton to 6820 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6780 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 24 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate rose 0.04% to 83.39%. Production enterprise and trader inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.35% to 40.8%. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 1 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 45 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6505 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate fell 1.03% to 73.85%. Production enterprise inventory decreased, while trader and port inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.48% to 52.76%. The LL - PP spread widened by 9 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 20 yuan to 7262 yuan, and PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 897 dollars. The basis was - 12 (+ 6) yuan, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 32 (+ 6) yuan. China's PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3%, and Asia's was 81.2%, up 0.3%. Some overseas and domestic device conditions changed. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, up 0.7 tons year - on - year. Inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, down 5 tons month - on - month [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 24 yuan to 5116 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 15 yuan to 5075 yuan. The basis was - 70 (- 1) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 46 (- 6) yuan. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, down 2.5 tons. Spot processing fee rose 14 yuan to 319 yuan, and futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 352 yuan [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 52 yuan to 3867 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 3711 yuan. The basis was - 144 (- 3) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+ 6) yuan. The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas device conditions changed. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and East China departure on January 13 was 1.57 tons. Port inventory was 80.2 tons, up 7.7 tons. Naphtha - based profit was - 967 yuan, domestic ethylene - based profit was - 848 yuan, and coal - based profit was 283 yuan [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LLDPE主力 futures fluctuated in the range of 6430 - 6510. As of the close on December 31, 2025, the L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week's closing price. In January, new domestic PE production capacity will continue to be released, and low - cost overseas resources will keep flowing in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. With the off - season of agricultural film demand and limited follow - up of packaging film demand, the LLDPE price still faces pressure in the future. In the short term, L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of around 6220 - 6600 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Highlights - **Price**: The L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week [6]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Last week, a new 500,000 - ton full - density plant of Guangdong BASF was put into operation, and some plants had short - term shutdowns. PE production decreased by 1.09% to 672,200 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 1.22% to 82.64% [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate down 1.3% and the packaging film operating rate down 0.7% [6]. - **Inventory**: This week, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 20.48% to 346,700 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.77% to 475,100 tons [6]. - **Cost - profit**: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.11% to 7014 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 379.71 yuan/ton to - 667 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.94% to 6448 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 165.57 yuan/ton to - 206.71 yuan/ton [6]. - **Outlook**: In January, new domestic PE production capacity will be released, and low - cost overseas resources will flow in. Enterprises may increase shutdowns. Agricultural film demand is in the off - season, and packaging film demand is limited. International oil prices are expected to be weak. After the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, LLDPE prices face pressure, and L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6220 - 6600 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: This week, L2605 fluctuated in a range, and the trading volume of the main contract dropped significantly [7]. - **Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread fluctuated strongly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated weakly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated slightly, and the L - PP spread fluctuated slightly [18][24]. Spot Market - **Price**: The domestic LLDPE price was in the range of 6300 - 6530, and the CFR China quotation was 773 US dollars/ton [29]. - **Basis**: The main contract basis decreased, and the spot was slightly at a discount [33]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Ethylene Price**: This week, the RMB price of ethylene remained basically stable [37]. - **Ethylene Production and Import**: In November, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and ethylene import remained basically stable month - on - month but increased year - on - year [40]. Supply - **Production**: In November, the polyethylene production was 2.8909 million tons, an increase month - on - month [44]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month [50]. Cost - profit - **Production Cost**: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased [55]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profit of oil - based LLDPE and coal - based LLDPE both decreased. This week, the LLDPE import profit increased, but the import window remained closed [61][66]. Inventory - This week, the PE inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not large [71]. Demand - **Downstream Price**: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [75]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Last week, the average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.6%. The operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, and pipes decreased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 0.00% year - on - year, and the cumulative export amount decreased by 1.20% year - on - year [78][82][87]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 16.00%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.88% [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to buy on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold [5][7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase. There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when the hourly technical pattern weakens and not to open new long or short positions [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment. Some are expected to rise further, while others need to pay attention to the impact of inventory and other factors on prices [11][12][13][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillation range. Glass and soda ash markets are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron need to pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors [31][32][33][34]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices are oscillating strongly with a neutral - to - long - term view. Oil prices are maintained with a low - buy and high - sell strategy. Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. Urea is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Other chemicals also have their own supply - demand and price trends [47][50][51][52]. - For agricultural products, the short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound. Egg prices may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. Other agricultural products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand relationships [74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to improve the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares. Rules for commercial rocket companies to list on the STAR Market are refined. The first batch of L3 - level autonomous vehicles in China start large - scale road operation. International gold and silver prices reach new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. National industrial enterprise profit data is released, and a fiscal work meeting is held, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducts 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rise. The expected expansion of US fiscal policy drives up the price of gold, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year, pushing up the price of silver [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and not to open new positions [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai copper breaks through 100,000 yuan per ton. The weekly inventory of copper at the SHFE increases, and the spot discount expands [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of copper is expected to rise further, but attention should be paid to the suppression of inventory accumulation on the upward trend [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rises. The inventory of aluminum ingots increases slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreases [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of aluminum is expected to rise further, supported by the rise of precious metals and copper prices [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc rises. The inventory of zinc ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of zinc are weak, but there is a risk of supplementary price increases following the sector [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead rises. The inventory of lead ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, but the price is supported by the reduction of supply on the recycling side and low inventory [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel rebounds slightly. The spot premium and the price of nickel ore and nickel pig iron change [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin rises. The production of tin smelting enterprises and the demand of tin solder enterprises change [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The price of Australian lithium concentrate also rises [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The change in the pricing method and the initiative in long - term contracts are beneficial to the restoration of the spot valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises. The spot price, overseas price, and inventory change [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of ore is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to wait and see and not to chase long positions blindly [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel changes. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The demand is weak, and the winter storage intention is low [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rises. The spot price, basis, and inventory change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore decreases, the demand is stable, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash change. The inventory, positions, and spot prices change [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to remain weak, and the soda ash market has limited rebound strength [36][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron change. The spot prices and basis change [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the risk of supplementary price increases in the black sector and the cost and supply factors of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon change. The spot prices, positions, and inventory change [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate [43][45]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillates strongly. The tire start - up rate, inventory, and spot price change [47][48][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the prices of refined oil products rise. The inventory of Singapore ESG oil products changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of methanol change [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of urea change [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of urea decreases, and the demand increases. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rises. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to compress the valuation [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of PP are weak, and attention should be paid to the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost end in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: The price of hogs rises. The supply and demand in the market change [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs is stable or rises. The supply and demand in the market change [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - month and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far - month [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans falls. The domestic soybean meal price, trading volume, and inventory change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybean meal has a bottom support, and the price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil change. The import of Indian vegetable oil decreases. The price of domestic oils and fats rebounds [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe the high - frequency production and export data and operate short - term [82][83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar rises. The import volume of sugar and syrup changes. The production of sugar in Brazil and India changes [84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton rises. The spot price, import volume, and inventory change [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various commodity futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes and持仓量 and capital flow information [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 1,016.30 with a weekly increase of 3.71%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.43%, and a volatility change of 13.75%. Silver closed at 18,319.00 with a weekly increase of 19.14%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 43.50%, and a volatility change of 33.41% [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 98,720.00 with a 5.95% weekly increase; nickel at 126,750.00 with a 7.91% increase; aluminum at 22,405.00 with a 0.99% increase; tin at 338,550.00 with a 1.58% decrease; zinc at 23,170.00 with a 0.41% increase; lead at 17,555.00 with a 4.00% increase; industrial silicon at 8,880.00 with a 2.19% increase [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,720.00 with a 1.15% decrease; coking coal at 1,115.50 with a 0.68% increase; iron ore at 783.00 with a 0.38% increase; rebar at 3,118.00 with a 0.03% decrease; hot - rolled coil at 3,283.00 with a 0.43% increase; ferrosilicon at 5,672.00 with a 0.57% increase; silicomanganese at 5,840.00 with a 0.55% increase; stainless steel at 12,955.00 with a 1.85% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 441.80 with a 3.56% increase; fuel oil at 2,491.00 with a 4.23% increase; LU at 3,017.00 with a 3.53% increase; LPG at 4,080.00 with a 0.46% decrease; asphalt at 2,995.00 with a 2.96% increase; PVC at 4,832.00 with a 3.87% increase; polyethylene at 6,465.00 with a 2.29% increase; polypropylene at 6,292.00 with a 1.27% increase; styrene at 6,787.00 with a 6.01% increase; PTA at 5,280.00 with an 8.15% increase; ethylene glycol at 3,846.00 with a 2.89% increase; short - fiber at 6,666.00 with a 5.94% increase; methanol at 2,161.00 with a 0.61% increase; urea at 1,735.00 with a 2.24% increase; glass at 1,057.00 with a 1.54% increase; soda ash at 1,200.00 with a 2.04% increase; natural rubber at 15,780.00 with a 3.88% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton closed at 14,535.00 with a 3.71% increase; sugar at 5,285.00 with a 3.87% increase; corn at 2,222.00 with a 1.37% increase; apple at 9,247.00 with a 0.52% increase; starch at 2,514.00 with a 0.88% increase; soybean No. 1 at 4,128.00 with a 1.08% increase; soybean No. 2 at 3,491.00 with a 2.26% increase; soybean meal at 2,790.00 with a 2.01% increase; soybean oil at 7,836.00 with a 1.61% increase; palm oil at 8,568.00 with a 3.33% increase; rapeseed meal at 2,391.00 with a 2.93% increase; rapeseed oil at 9,046.00 with a 3.45% increase; pulp at 5,630.00 with a 2.25% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Egg closed at 2,957.00 with a 2.46% increase; live pig at 11,645.00 with a 2.83% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 7,388.00 with a 4.71% increase; IF at 4,638.40 with a 2.46% increase; IM at 7,472.40 with a 4.63% increase; IH at 3,051.40 with a 1.50% increase; T at 108.30 with a 0.14% increase; TS at 102.55 with a 0.06% increase; TF at 106.05 with a 0.08% increase [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had a year - to - date increase of 145.23%, gold 64.56%, and tin 38.26%. Some commodities had significant year - to - date decreases, such as PVC with a 20.95% decrease and LPG with a 25.11% decrease [13] 3.3 Position and Capital Flow - **Position Changes**: The positions of coke, PTA, lead, urea, and soybean No. 1 increased significantly [15][16] - **Capital Flow**: The capital attention of silver, gold, copper, nickel, and PTA increased [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2605 contract rose 1.99% to close at 6,408 yuan/ton. Last week, new maintenance devices were added, causing a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE decreased. Factory and social inventories changed differently, and the pace of total inventory reduction slowed down. Oil - and coal - based process costs decreased, and profits slightly recovered. There are no new maintenance or restart devices this week, and the impact of previously shut - down production capacity may lead to a further decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. From December to January next year, with continuous capacity release and limited impact of device maintenance, the industry is expected to remain in a high - supply stage. The agricultural film is in the off - season, and the operating rate continues to decline; the demand for packaging film is limited, and it is difficult to support the demand. Due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 6,220 and resistance around 6,600 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the main contract closing at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the 1 - month contract at 6,350 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; the 5 - month contract at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; and the 9 - month contract at 6,445 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 668,755 lots, up 1,921 lots, and the open interest was 540,352 lots, down 41,207 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 58, down 8. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 462,058 lots, down 24,701 lots; the short positions were 547,783 lots, down 40,729 lots; and the net long positions were - 85,725 lots, up 16,028 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,273.48 yuan/ton, down 50.43 yuan; in East China, it was 6,378.37 yuan/ton, down 18.84 yuan. The basis was - 134.52, down 162.43 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 57.75 US dollars/barrel, up 0.24 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 542.25 US dollars/ton, up 2.37 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 746 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 83.86%, down 0.25 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.96%, down 0.63 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 45.18%, down 1.22 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.64%, up 0.82 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.4%, up 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.1%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.1%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, China's total polyethylene production was 679,600 tons, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. From December 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.6% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 0.6%. As of December 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 488,700 tons, an increase of 3.65% from the previous period; as of December 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene in sample warehouses was 458,600 tons, a decrease of 5.99% from the previous period. From December 3rd to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.86% to 6,937 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 182.71 yuan/ton to - 287.29 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 3.88% to 6,575 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 25.71 yuan/ton to - 41.14 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price and volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, financial futures, etc., and shows the year-to-date price changes and the changes in average daily open interest and precipitation funds [2][4][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Futures Price and Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 970.66 with a 1.00% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.59%, volatility change of -9.40%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of 47.37; Silver closed at 14,892.00 with an 8.80% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 37.70%, volatility change of 3.90%, speculation degree of 3.97, trend degree of 0.30, and capital change of 43.39 [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, and industrial silicon showed different price changes, volatilities, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes. For example, copper closed at 94,080.00 with a 1.40% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.71%, volatility change of 22.77%, speculation degree of 0.81, trend degree of 0.08, and capital change of -14.36 [2] - **Black Metals**: Products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and stainless steel had their own price trends, volatilities, etc. For instance, rebar closed at 3,060.00 with a 3.07% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.01%, volatility change of 44.45%, speculation degree of 0.83, trend degree of -0.47, and capital change of -12.59 [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, asphalt, PVC, polyethylene, etc. all had corresponding price fluctuations and other data. For example, crude oil closed at 437.60 with a 3.55% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.94%, volatility change of -19.12%, speculation degree of 2.26, trend degree of -0.28, and capital change of -5.72 [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton, sugar, corn, soybeans, etc. showed different performance. For example, cotton closed at 13,835.00 with a 0.62% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 5.63%, volatility change of -2.35%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of 0.01, and capital change of 9.83 [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC, IF, IM, IH, T, TS, TF had their respective prices, weekly changes, volatilities, etc. For example, IC closed at 7,174.00 with a 1.28% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.37%, volatility change of -5.33%, speculation degree of 0.63, trend degree of 0.07, and capital change of 23.50 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Different futures products had varying year - to - date price changes. For example, silver had a 99.36% increase, while glass had a 28.80% decrease [13] Changes in Average Daily Open Interest - The average daily open interest of products such as cotton yarn, rapeseed meal, asphalt, soybean oil, and live pigs had relatively large increases [15] Changes in Precipitation Funds - Gold, silver, tin, and cotton had increased capital attention, with corresponding changes in precipitation funds [16][17]