1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the polyethylene futures fluctuated widely with oil prices this week. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the L2605 contract closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week's closing price [6]. - On the supply side, multiple plants such as Zhonghan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Tarim Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance this week. PE production decreased by 4.78% week-on-week to 632,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.83% week-on-week to 76.24% [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.2% week-on-week. Among them, the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 3.4% week-on-week, and the operating rate of packaging film increased by 1.7% week-on-week [6]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises increased by 3.45% week-on-week to 587,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.98% week-on-week to 607,100 tons [6]. - In terms of cost and profit, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.94% week-on-week to 10,374 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit increased by 46 yuan/ton to -1,802 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.45% week-on-week to 6,637 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit increased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton [6]. - Looking ahead, the PE maintenance plan has increased compared with the previous period, and the industry supply pressure is expected to continue to ease. The downstream peak season continues, but product enterprises make rigid purchases at high raw material prices, and the demand side weakens. The domestic supply and demand are in a stalemate. The inventory is neutral. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East still disturbs oil prices; the supply of raw materials such as ethylene in Asia is difficult to recover in the short term, and the ethylene price is unlikely to fall. Currently, the basis of the 05 contract is neutral. Considering comprehensively, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Technically, L2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 8,330 and the previous high pressure around 9,520 [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the polyethylene futures fluctuated widely with oil prices this week. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the L2605 contract closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - Multiple plants were shut down for maintenance, PE production decreased by 4.78% week-on-week to 632,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.83% week-on-week to 76.24%. Demand - The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.2% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 3.4% and the packaging film operating rate up 1.7%. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 3.45% week-on-week to 587,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.98% week-on-week to 607,100 tons. Cost and profit - The cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.94% week-on-week to 10,374 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit increased by 46 yuan/ton to -1,802 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.45% week-on-week to 6,637 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit increased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: The PE maintenance plan has increased, supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream peak season continues, but demand weakens. The inventory is neutral. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs oil prices, and ethylene prices are unlikely to fall. The 05 contract basis is neutral. LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation. Technically, L2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 8,330 and the previous high pressure around 9,520 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Futures price and trading volume: The L2605 fluctuated widely this week, and the weekly trading volume increased slightly [7]. - Open interest and warehouse receipts: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased week-on-week, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week-on-week [12]. - Monthly spreads: The 9 - 1 monthly spread increased slightly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread increased slightly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated and declined, and the L - PP spread fluctuated and declined [17][24]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Domestic LLDPE prices ranged from 8,630 to 9,310 yuan, and the CFR China quotation was 1,078 US dollars/ton [29]. - The main basis fluctuated widely [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Ethylene price: The RMB price of ethylene increased week-on-week [38]. - Ethylene production and imports: In December, ethylene production increased month-on-month and year-on-year. In January, ethylene imports were 292,200 tons, and in February, ethylene imports were 180,200 tons [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply: In February, polyethylene production was 2.9059 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. This week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased week-on-week [46][52]. - Cost and profit: This week, the cost of oil-based LLDPE and coal-based LLDPE increased week-on-week, and the profit of oil-based LLDPE and coal-based LLDPE increased week-on-week. The LLDPE US dollar price increased, and the import profit fluctuated widely [58][64][70]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory increased week-on-week, and the total inventory pressure was not large [76]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Situation - Demand - Downstream prices: The prices of PE downstream products remained stable this week [80]. - Downstream operating rate and plastic product production: The average downstream operating rate increased by 2.2% week-on-week. From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 5.20% year-on-year. The operating rate of agricultural film and packaging film increased, and the operating rate of pipes increased. From January to February 2026, the export value of plastic products increased by 25.70% year-on-year [83][88][92]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polyethylene was reported at 54.76%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 51.52% [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the weekly closing prices, price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of each futures variety. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The weekly closing price was 998.66, with a weekly decline of 4.16%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.42%, a volatility increase of 56.31%, speculation degree of 3.36, trend degree of - 0.16, and a capital outflow of 148.28 [2]. - Silver: The weekly closing price was 17,489.00, with a weekly decline of 0.77%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 92.24%, a volatility increase of 9.26%, speculation degree of 4.69, trend degree of - 0.01, and a capital outflow of 11.14 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The weekly closing price was 95,930.00, with a weekly increase of 1.26%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 22.36%, a volatility increase of 12.87%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.07, and a capital outflow of 38.01 [2]. - Nickel: The weekly closing price was 137,100.00, with a weekly increase of 2.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 21.07%, a volatility decrease of 16.68%, speculation degree of 2.30, trend degree of 0.09, and a capital inflow of 15.03 [2]. - Tin: The weekly closing price was 362,460.00, with a weekly increase of 5.76%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 58.97%, a volatility decrease of 21.82%, speculation degree of 10.12, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital inflow of 3.39 [2]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The weekly closing price was 812.00, with a weekly decline of 0.43%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.63%, a volatility decrease of 4.06%, speculation degree of 0.60, trend degree of 0.06, and a capital inflow of 3.38 [2]. - Coke: The weekly closing price was 1,752.00, with a weekly increase of 0.66%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 32.76%, a volatility increase of 22.23%, speculation degree of 0.74, trend degree of - 0.19, and a capital inflow of 3.87 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weekly closing price was 1,219.00, with a weekly increase of 4.10%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.56%, a volatility increase of 44.94%, speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.02, and a capital inflow of 23.74 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The weekly closing price was 740.80, with a weekly decline of 4.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 119.65%, a volatility increase of 8.61%, speculation degree of 2.50, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 33.39 [2]. - Fuel Oil LU: The weekly closing price was 4,464.00 (5,157.00), with a weekly decline of 6.14% (- 7.78%), 20 - day annualized volatility of 99.40% (106.40%), a volatility increase of 14.65% (13.49%), speculation degree of 3.11 (1.95), trend degree of 0.08 (0.01), and a capital outflow of 18.59 (7.27) [2]. - Methanol: The weekly closing price was 3,296.00, with a weekly increase of 5.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 80.52%, a volatility increase of 5.60%, speculation degree of 3.38, trend degree of 0.30, and a capital inflow of 16.58 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The weekly closing price was 15,395.00, with a weekly increase of 1.18%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.10%, a volatility decrease of 38.17%, speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of 0.21, and a capital inflow of 3.83 [2]. - Sugar: The weekly closing price was 5,464.00, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.71%, a volatility decrease of 5.49%, speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.20, and a capital inflow of 2.13 [2]. - Corn: The weekly closing price was 2,369.00, with a weekly decline of 0.75%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.80%, a volatility increase of 35.16%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital outflow of 0.41 [2]. Forest Products - Pulp: The weekly closing price was 5,202.00, with a weekly increase of 0.74%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.83%, a volatility decrease of 3.70%, speculation degree of 1.56, trend degree of 0.07, and a capital outflow of 8.97 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs: The weekly closing price was 3,502.00, with a weekly increase of 2.73%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.48%, a volatility increase of 20.23%, speculation degree of 1.22, trend degree of 0.26, and a capital inflow of 2.72 [2]. - Hogs: The weekly closing price was 9,965.00, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.84%, a volatility decrease of 1.77%, speculation degree of 0.80, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital inflow of 11.64 [2]. Financial Futures - IC: The weekly closing price was 7,559.20, with no weekly change, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.33%, a volatility increase of 20.48%, speculation degree of 0.68, trend degree of 0.05, and a capital inflow of 3.18 [4]. - IF: The weekly closing price was 4,427.40, with a weekly decline of 1.32%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.01%, a volatility increase of 22.49%, speculation degree of 0.44, trend degree of 0.03, and a capital outflow of 18.92 [4]. - IM: The weekly closing price was 7,523.80, with a weekly decline of 0.48%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.45%, a volatility increase of 33.07%, speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 20.00 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It affects risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the prices of various assets [2][4]. - The global economic situation is complex, with concerns about inflation, recession, and the impact of central bank policies. The Fed's hawkish stance and high oil prices have led to changes in market expectations and trading strategies [4][38]. - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some are supported by fundamentals, while others are under pressure due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and changes in demand [13][15][33]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: News includes Iran's stance on the war, potential impacts of the Iran - US conflict on the global economy, corporate projects, and business suspensions [2]. - **基差年化比率**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis annualized ratios [3]. - **策略观点**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: The prices of different treasury bond contracts have certain changes. There are also news about power statistics and shipping business resumption. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds [5]. - **策略观点**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets have different trends. There are also relevant policies in Russia and Iran's conditions for ending the war [9]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum. However, in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The copper price rose due to the improvement of market risk sentiment. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The spot discount in the East China region expanded, while the spot premium in the Guangdong region increased [12]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East is slightly alleviated but may be repeated. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, but the upward resistance has increased [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The aluminum price fluctuated. The trading volume and inventory of relevant contracts changed. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed [14]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price declined. The inventory and basis of zinc in domestic and international markets have specific data [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [17]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory and basis of lead in domestic and international markets have specific data [18]. - **策略观点**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and the low operating rate of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price. However, the high oil price and the inflow of overseas lead ingots may put pressure on the lead price, and the price volatility is increasing [18]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price declined. The spot price and cost of nickel have specific data [19]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to be weak due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price rose. The production and inventory of tin have specific data [21]. - **策略观点**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. Considering the geopolitical disturbance and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the tin price is expected to be weak [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The price of lithium carbonate increased. The spot and futures prices have specific data [23]. - **策略观点**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The downstream restocking provides support. The supply stability is a concern. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [24]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina price declined. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [25]. - **策略观点**: The bauxite export policy in Guinea may lead to an increase in ore prices. The short - term supply of alumina is tight, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless steel price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [27]. - **策略观点**: The stainless steel price is supported by the increase in raw material costs and policy disturbances. The market supply is still loose, and the demand release is weak. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume, inventory, and price difference have specific data [29]. - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices have specific data [32]. - **策略观点**: The steel market is in a weak balance state. The demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [33]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price declined. The futures price, positions, and spot price have specific data [34]. - **策略观点**: The iron ore price was affected by the negotiation news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [36][37]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about coking coal in the long term [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: The prices of glass and soda ash declined. The spot prices, inventory, and positions have specific data [39][41]. - **策略观点**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to be volatile. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range oscillation [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of manganese silicon rose slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [42]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Attention should be paid to the cost and supply - side factors [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon rose. The trading volume, inventory, and spot prices have specific data [47][49]. - **策略观点**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile due to the support of cost and weak demand improvement. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to find the bottom through oscillation [48][50]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber have specific data [53][54]. - **策略观点**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. Options can be configured, and hedging positions can be held [56]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products declined [57]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil varieties, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [58]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The methanol price changed. The MTO profit also changed [59]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and do long - short spreads for MTO profits [60]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The urea price changed. The regional spot prices and basis have specific data [61]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to short urea due to the high - level start - up in the first quarter and the limited export quota. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory have specific data [63]. - **策略观点**: The profit of non - integrated styrene is neutral to high, and the valuation repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [65]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price declined. The cost, production, demand, and inventory have specific data [66]. - **策略观点**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost have specific data [68]. - **策略观点**: The industry is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [70]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and processing fee have specific data [71]. - **策略观点**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and valuation have specific data [73]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [75]. - **策略观点**: The PE valuation has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [78]. - **策略观点**: The cost pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production mismatch [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price declined. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [81]. - **策略观点**: The supply is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was mostly stable. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [83]. - **策略观点**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: There are forecasts for the planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US, export data, and inventory data [85]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation and the relaxation of soybean import inspection standards are negative for the meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [86]. Oils and Fats - **行情资讯**: There are policies and production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia [87][89]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of sugar [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [95]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of cotton [91]. - **策略观点**: The new import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term and positive for the US cotton price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disrupted, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue with moderately loose monetary and more proactive fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs further observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the Middle - East conflict, but the current rise in energy prices may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term [10]. - The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, while aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. Zinc prices may break downward, and lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and tin prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and alumina prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [13][15][17][18][20][22][23][26][27][29]. - The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term. Glass prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [32][34][38][39][42][43][46][49][51]. - For the energy - chemical sector, rubber trading should be flexible. Crude oil recommends a short - term bearish strategic allocation. Methanol suggests taking profits at high prices. Urea suggests short - selling at high prices. Pure benzene and styrene suggest empty - position waiting. PVC and ethylene glycol may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks. PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene prices have their own characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [56][58][60][62][64][66][68][70][72][74][76]. - For the agricultural products sector, pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term, egg prices may have a short - term rebound and then be sold short, bean - and - rapeseed meal prices suggest short - term waiting and seeing, oil prices are bullish in the medium term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [79][81][83][85][89][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market News**: The IEA's 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Trump said the military action against Iran was "almost over". The National Supercomputing Internet will distribute 10 million Tokens to each OpenClaw user for free for 2 weeks. The US February unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On March 11, the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - issue treasury bonds were higher than the ChinaBond valuations. The IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices all declined. The US February CPI and core CPI were stable for two consecutive months. Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA will release 400 million barrels of oil reserves. The Trump administration will launch trade investigations [8][9]. - **Strategy View**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the conflict, but the current energy price rise may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. Be cautiously bearish on precious metals [10]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to copper price fluctuations. LME and domestic warehouse inventories changed, and the spot premium changed [12]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to concerns about aluminum supply, and aluminum prices were strong. Warehouse inventories and futures positions changed [14]. - **Strategy View**: The supply risk in the Middle - East remains, and domestic downstream resumption of work will reduce the inventory accumulation pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices declined. Warehouse inventories, basis, and import and export data are provided [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply. Zinc prices may break downward and are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: The lead industry has problems such as high inventory and low downstream start - up. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [18]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Spot prices and cost data are provided [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined slightly. Supply is tight, and demand has not fully recovered [21]. - **Strategy View**: The market is bullish on tin prices, but attention should be paid to the current situation of loose supply and demand and rising inventory. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: Lithium carbonate prices declined. Spot and futures prices and other data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial driving force is limited, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [24]. - **Strategy View**: Maintenance increases and production delays reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to potential driving factors [25][26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices declined slightly. Spot prices, warehouse inventories, and other data are provided [27]. - **Strategy View**: The market procurement atmosphere has improved, and stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is strong, and demand is expected to improve. Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [31]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [33]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore supply fluctuates at a high level, and high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: Coking coal and coke prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [36]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: Glass demand has improved slightly, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector [42][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [44]. - **Strategy View**: The US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities [46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices declined slightly, and polysilicon prices rose slightly. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to increase in March, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply and demand are expected to increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Tire enterprise start - up rates, inventory, and spot prices are provided [53][54][55]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider opening or holding a long - NR and short - RU2609 position [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and related refined oil prices declined [57]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil, and have corresponding trading strategies for spreads [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol spot and futures prices changed [59]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices [60]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market News**: Urea spot and futures prices changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell at high prices [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [63]. - **Strategy View**: Empty - position waiting [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - **Strategy View**: PVC prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: Ethylene glycol prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: PTA prices may have a short - term correction, and PXN may rise in the future, but pay attention to risks [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene prices are expected to decline in March, and may enter a de - stocking cycle. Pay attention to risks [72]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [74]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term production - matching issues [76]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices were half - stable and half - falling. Supply and demand data are provided [78]. - **Strategy View**: Pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term. Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and wait and see for the far - end contracts [79]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were mostly stable with some narrow fluctuations. Supply and demand data are provided [80]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - end contracts [81]. 3.5.3 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean import, production, and export data are provided [82]. - **Strategy View**: Wait and see in the short term [83]. 3.5.4 Oils - **Market News**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data from Indonesia and Malaysia are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: Bullish on oils in the medium term [85]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar production, export, and inventory data from India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided [86][88]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions at low prices [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data are provided [90]. - **Strategy View**: Buy at low prices if downstream starts up well [91].

Report Overview - The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data, including closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes for various commodity futures and financial futures [2][3] Commodity Futures Precious Metals - Gold closed at 1,147.90 with a 3.41% weekly increase, 72.66% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 0.27% volatility increase; capital decreased by 147.54 [2] - Silver closed at 23,019.00 with a 16.36% weekly increase, 129.12% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 7.64% volatility increase; capital decreased by 11.81 [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 103,920.00 with a 3.27% weekly increase, 44.13% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 0.88% volatility increase; capital decreased by 127.74 [2] - Nickel closed at 141,560.00 with a 4.13% weekly increase, 48.55% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 2.57% volatility increase; capital increased by 12.58 [2] Black Metals - Coke closed at 1,635.50 with a 2.76% weekly decrease, 30.59% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 6.96% volatility increase; capital increased by 3.24 [2] - Coking coal closed at 1,093.50 with a 2.45% weekly decrease, 34.57% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 0.11% volatility decrease; capital increased by 8.34 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 488.40 with a 6.01% weekly increase, 41.93% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 24.69% volatility increase; capital decreased by 8.46 [2] - Fuel oil closed at 2,987.00 with a 5.18% weekly increase, 38.65% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 2.29% volatility increase; capital decreased by 1.31 [2] Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 15,395.00 with a 4.44% weekly increase, 18.04% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 35.62% volatility increase; capital decreased by 17.46 [2] - Sugar closed at 5,324.00 with a 2.17% weekly increase, 9.05% 20 - day annualized volatility, and an 8.72% volatility decrease; capital decreased by 6.61 [2] Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 11,485.00 with a 0.13% weekly decrease, 14.20% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 5.25% volatility increase; capital decreased by 15.98 [2] Financial Futures - IC closed at 8,645.40 with a 4.48% weekly increase, 35.79% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 1.69% volatility increase; capital increased by 55.17 [3] - IF closed at 4,713.80 with a 1.88% weekly increase, 18.34% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 5.52% volatility increase; capital decreased by 41.00 [3] Year - to - date Price Changes - Tin had the highest year - to - date increase of 40.36%, followed by silver at 34.82% and fuel oil at 22.07% [12] - Some commodities had year - to - date decreases, such as paper pulp at - 0.27% and coking coal at - 2.97% [12] Weekly Average Position and Capital Changes - The positions of LPG, starch, nickel, styrene, and lead increased significantly [14] - The capital attention to tin, nickel, coking coal, apple, and methanol increased [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to show a relatively strong performance due to factors such as the RMB exchange rate appreciation, the release of large - model and the popularity of robots. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the precious metal market may see short - term rises in the domestic market. For most commodities, the market is in a state of multi - factor game, with short - term trends being mainly volatile [4][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: Multiple factors affect the stock index, including the pessimistic outlook of the US - Iran conflict leading to expected sharp oil price increases, the popularity of domestic AI large - models and robots, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the upcoming launch of Honor's first humanoid robot [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance in the short term due to factors such as the US - Iran conflict, the reversal of US tariff policies, RMB appreciation, and the popularity of large - models and robots [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond contracts showed different changes before the Spring Festival. The US announced a 10% temporary import tariff, and the Spring Festival travel volume reached a new high [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the consumer data during the Spring Festival improved, inflation may suppress the bond market. The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Before and during the Spring Festival, the prices of gold and silver both rose. The uncertainty of tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold - buying behavior supported the price of gold, while the US inflation data showed that inflation was difficult to decline [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the Spring Festival, the international gold price was supported and rebounded. Silver was in a volatile pattern. The domestic precious metal market may follow the overseas market to rise in the short term [11]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the copper price fluctuated. The overseas copper inventory increased, and the domestic primary processing enterprise's start - up rate weakened [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to the support of sentiment and the tight supply of copper ore [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the aluminum price fluctuated and recovered. The domestic aluminum inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The LME inventory is at a relatively low level, and the aluminum price is expected to rise in the short term [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic zinc price fell, and during the Spring Festival, the overseas zinc price rose. The domestic zinc inventory began to accumulate [17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak in the short term. If the prices of copper and aluminum rise sharply, the zinc price may follow, but it will return to the weak industrial reality after the macro - disturbance fades [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic lead price fell, and during the Spring Festival, the overseas lead price fell. The LME lead inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is weak, but the strategic inventory - building of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the nickel price fell, and during the Spring Festival, the overseas nickel price rose slightly. The cost and price of nickel - related products remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely and gradually rise in the long - term, but face pressure in the short term [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the tin price fell. The supply of tin was difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the demand was weak [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with a long - term upward trend [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rose, and the price of lithium concentrate also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be tight in the short term, and the upstream has more bargaining power [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose, the trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is recommended to be observed. The future price depends on the supply of bauxite and the relief of supply pressure [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price remained stable [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of stainless steel will be relieved, and the price has strong support at the bottom [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fell, the trading volume increased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil both rose slightly, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black - series products are in a bottom - game stage. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the recovery of plate demand and policy changes [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the iron ore price fell, and the inventory was at a high level [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the weather impact, the overseas supply of iron ore recovered. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the prices of coking coal and coke showed a weak - volatile trend [36][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke weakened before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is not strong, but it may rise smoothly in 2026 [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash both fell, and the inventory increased [41][43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to fluctuate, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly stable and volatile [42][44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon both fell, and the price trends were in a state of shock [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may enter a volatile and de - volatilization cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the market sentiment and cost factors [46][47]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon also rose. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, and the polysilicon market is expected to fluctuate [49][52]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the rubber price rose slightly. The natural rubber market has different views on the rise and fall [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the disk and hold the hedging position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventory of related products changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, the upstream and downstream start - up rates changed slightly, and the inventory was at a certain level [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol is still there, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price fell, and the import window has been opened [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene rose, and the price of styrene showed different trends. The inventory and profit of related products changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been restored, and it is recommended to take profits gradually [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the supply was at a high level, and the demand was weak [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term support factors need attention [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the supply load was high, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of rebound [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the supply load decreased, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips in the medium - term [70]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the load was high, and the inventory increased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. It is recommended to follow the crude oil and buy on dips in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, the spot price fell, and the inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and the demand is in the off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, the spot price was stable, and the inventory changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to buy the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [77]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: After the Spring Festival, the pig price mainly fell, with different trends in the north and the south [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the support of the spot price and the accumulation of contradictions [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price was relatively neutral, and the inventory accumulation was limited [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term, and pay attention to the long - term valuation pressure [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The US soybean export data and the Brazilian soybean harvest rate changed. The domestic soybean and meal inventory also changed [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The protein meal price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia changed, and the domestic oil inventory increased slightly [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The data of sugar production, export, and inventory in Brazil, India, and China changed [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory and production data changed. Trump's tariff policy also affected the cotton price [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is affected by tariff policies. In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise, and attention should be paid to the start - up of the downstream industry after the Spring Festival [92].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) implemented 43 measures to optimize contract rules, expand delivery areas, introduce brand delivery, and innovate spot-futures business, tailored to the characteristics and development stages of each commodity, enhancing the utility of futures derivatives for enterprises in trade pricing, risk management, and operational optimization [1][8]. Group 1: Contract Rule Adjustments - DCE focused on adjusting contract rules for key commodities to better align with current industry developments, such as increasing the delivery quality standards for live pig futures to reflect the rising market weight [2][3]. - For black commodities, DCE reduced the delivery units for coking coal and coke from 1,000 tons and 6,000 tons to 100 tons and 60 tons respectively, and iron ore from 10,000 tons to 5,000 tons, facilitating participation from small and medium enterprises [2][3]. Group 2: Delivery Area Expansion - DCE expanded delivery areas and added delivery warehouses to enhance service networks, including the addition of Shaanxi as a delivery area for linear low-density polyethylene futures and Tianjin for polypropylene futures, improving local enterprise participation and reducing transportation costs [4][5]. - The delivery network for coking coal futures was also significantly expanded, with new delivery warehouses established in Inner Mongolia and support for additional warehouses in Henan [5]. Group 3: Innovative Delivery Methods - DCE introduced "agreement delivery" for all energy and chemical products, allowing buyers and sellers to negotiate delivery details, thus addressing the mismatch between supply and demand [6]. - The volume of "agreement delivery" transactions reached 304, involving 1,520 tons of spot goods since its introduction in September 2025, indicating strong participation from industry clients [6]. Group 4: Spot-Futures Business Development - DCE optimized the existing spot-futures business, achieving a transaction volume of 550,000 contracts in 2025, a 370% increase year-on-year, effectively meeting the needs for basis trading and personalized hedging [7]. - The launch of the "Yihai Zone" further deepened collaboration with leading enterprises and spot platforms, exploring new models for price linkage and information sharing [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - DCE plans to continue the "one product, one policy" approach, focusing on optimizing contract rules and enhancing delivery warehouse management to provide reliable support for enterprises participating in the futures market [8]. - The shift in the futures market from merely existing to improving quality reflects DCE's commitment to serving the real economy more precisely and sustainably [8].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has triggered a significant game between macro - policy expectation reconstruction and industrial fundamentals in the domestic energy - chemical commodity futures market. Warsh's "tight liquidity + low - interest - rate" policy combination has broken the traditional impact logic of monetary policy on commodities, leading to an "upstream pressured, downstream differentiated" market structure [4][5][40]. - In the short term, the market will focus on Warsh's policy implementation rhythm, the trend of the US dollar index, and geopolitical dynamics, with intensified volatility. In the long - term, energy - chemical prices will return to industrial fundamentals, and domestic demand recovery, industrial structure upgrading, and cost advantages will be the core factors determining the trends of each sector [5][40]. Group 3: Summaries of Each Chapter Chapter 1: Domestic Energy - Chemical Sector Experiences a Collective Decline - On February 2, 2026, affected by the cooling of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, the domestic energy - chemical sector declined collectively. The crude oil futures 2603 contract dropped 7.02% to 449 yuan/barrel, the fuel oil futures 2605 contract fell 6.51% to 2669 yuan/ton, the asphalt futures 2603 contract decreased 4.87% to 3299 yuan/ton, and the methanol futures 2605 contract declined 3.92% to 2252 yuan/ton. The rubber futures sector generally fell 3.5% - 5%, the polyester industry chain sector averaged a 5% decline, and the polyolefin sector averaged a 2.5% decline [10]. Chapter 2: Kevin Warsh's Policy Proposals and Transmission Mechanisms - Warsh's policy stance is a mix of "hawkish and dovish". He advocates active balance - sheet reduction to shrink excess liquidity and supports Trump's call for interest - rate cuts, creating a "tight financial liquidity + loose real - economy financing environment" combination. This makes the traditional "interest - rate cut = easing" logic ineffective, and the commodity market faces a dual game of "US - dollar strengthening suppression" and "economic recovery support" [23]. - The impact of Warsh's nomination on domestic energy - chemical futures is transmitted through three paths: the US - dollar exchange - rate channel (the expected balance - sheet reduction pushes up the US - dollar index, pressuring the prices of international crude oil and other basic energy sources), the capital - flow channel (tightening financial - market liquidity leads to speculative - capital withdrawal and concentrated closing of high - leverage positions), and the demand - expectation channel (the expected economic recovery from interest - rate cuts and the global demand suppression from balance - sheet reduction offset each other) [25]. Chapter 3: Oil - Chemical Futures Sector: Full - Chain Pressure under Crude Oil Dominance - The oil - chemical sector is directly affected by international crude oil price fluctuations. Under the dual impact of the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of geopolitical risks, it shows a "full - chain pressured" weak market. The crude oil and fuel oil futures hit the daily limit down, while the asphalt futures are relatively resistant to decline [26]. - The expected balance - sheet reduction by Warsh pushes up the US - dollar index, increasing the procurement cost for non - US - currency buyers of crude oil and suppressing global demand. The cooling of geopolitical risks leads to a rapid return of the previously accumulated geopolitical premium. The global crude oil market has a loose supply - demand fundamental, with an expected daily surplus of 385,000 barrels in 2026 and a 0.3 - percentage - point reduction in the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast [26]. - The fuel oil futures are closely linked to crude oil. The sharp decline in crude oil prices leads to a collapse in the cost side, and the weak demand in the shipping market further suppresses prices. The asphalt futures are relatively resistant due to infrastructure demand support, but the overall demand is expected to decline year - on - year, and the industry is experiencing capacity reduction and increasing concentration [27][29]. Chapter 4: Coal - Chemical Futures Sector: Game Balance between Policy Impact and Cost Advantage - The coal - chemical sector is less directly affected by Warsh's policy. The prices of domestic coal - chemical products are mainly determined by policy regulation and the supply - demand fundamental of coal, and the demand for products like methanol and urea is relatively rigid. The coal - to - olefin route has a significant cost advantage when the international oil price is above 60 US dollars/barrel [30]. - It is expected that the stable coal cost and domestic rigid demand will support the prices of the coal - chemical sector. The methanol futures will maintain a range - bound trend, the urea futures may stabilize and rebound with the start of spring - plowing demand, and the price fluctuations of coal - based ethylene glycol will be limited [30]. Chapter 5: Rubber Futures Sector: Double Pressure from Import Dependence and Weak Overseas Demand - The rubber sector, which is import - dependent and sensitive to overseas demand, shows a "domestic - overseas resonance decline" under Warsh's policy impact. The strengthening of the US dollar increases import costs, and the continuous shrinkage of overseas terminal demand reduces the rubber procurement demand of domestic tire enterprises [31]. - In the short term, the double pressure of the strengthening US dollar and weak overseas demand will suppress rubber prices. In the long term, the incremental demand from the domestic new - energy vehicle industry and the supply contraction in Southeast Asia's main producing areas may support rubber prices [33]. Chapter 6: Polyester Futures Sector: Game Balance between Blocked Cost Transmission and Domestic Demand - The polyester sector shows characteristics of "pressured cost side, differentiated demand side". The decline in crude oil prices drags down raw - material costs, but the cost reduction is not fully transmitted to terminal products, and the profit margins of polyester enterprises improve marginally. The recovery of domestic consumption offsets the pressure from overseas demand [34]. - The polyester futures sector may present a pattern of "weak cost - side fluctuations, demand - side dominance" in the future. In the short term, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are under limited cost pressure, and the demand for polyester filament is expected to remain high. In the long term, the recovery of the global economy and domestic textile exports need to be monitored [35]. Chapter 7: Polyolefin Futures Sector: Resonant Decline due to Loose Supply - Demand and Policy Impact - The polyolefin sector is affected by both the loose supply - demand pattern and policy impact. On the supply side, the release of domestic production capacity and the pressure of imports intensify the supply - demand imbalance. On the demand side, the weak recovery of industrial demand fails to support price increases, and the pricing logic has shifted from "cost - side dominated" to "supply - demand - side dominated" [36][38]. - In the short term, the polyolefin sector will be suppressed by the loose supply - demand and policy uncertainties. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, and the demand growth from emerging fields will be the core driving force for structural opportunities [39]. Chapter 8: Summary - The domestic energy - chemical commodity futures market situation triggered by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh is the result of the game between macro - policy expectation reconstruction and industrial fundamentals. The "tight liquidity + low - interest - rate" policy combination leads to a market structure of "upstream pressured, downstream differentiated" [40]. - Investors should focus on the supply - demand fundamentals and policy transmission logic of each sector, seize structural opportunities, and do a good job in risk prevention [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of global geopolitical games, the strategic value of key mineral resources is continuously highlighted, and the pricing logic of related varieties has shifted from simple supply - demand to "resource security + commodity attribute" driven. The market's expectation of a loose monetary policy in major economies is rising, but the short - term market of strongly financial - attribute varieties is still volatile. China's industrial economy has entered a new stage of bottom - building and recovery, and industrial enterprise profits are expected to turn to moderate growth in 2026 [2]. - The "exchange rate inquiry" by the New York Fed may be an important signal of US - Japan joint intervention. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to factors such as seasonal settlement demand and market expectations [4]. - The spring rally in the stock index market is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to continue to be strong, while large - cap indexes are relatively weak [8]. - In the bond market, it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. - In the container shipping market, the near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts may be driven up by factors such as trade improvement and geopolitical risks [10][12]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate prices may strengthen in the short term, and industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, while polysilicon is still in the process of destocking [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are affected by market sentiment, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc has strong upward pressure, nickel - stainless steel is in a correction, tin prices are affected by news, and lead is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. - In the oil and fat market, oilseeds follow the rebound, and oils are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [30][33]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, fuel oil cracking is strong, low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum, asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - long term [36][38][40][45]. - In the chemical market, pulp prices may decline, PX - TA may have a phased correction, MEG may fluctuate widely, PP and PE are affected by macro - emotions, pure benzene and styrene market sentiment has declined, rubber is in a shock correction, urea is recommended to hold long positions, and glass and soda ash are in a repeated pattern [51][52][53][56][57][59][60][62][63][65][66][67][71][73][75][76]. - In the steel and iron ore market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a bottom - range oscillation, iron ore price fluctuations are narrowing, coking coal and coke are testing the lower support, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are oscillating weakly with cost support [77][78][79][80][81][83][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, live pigs are falling, cotton is recommended to buy on dips, sugar has limited upward potential, eggs are under pressure to fall, apples may be affected by the shortage of delivery products, dates may be in a low - level oscillation, and logs are recommended to wait and see [86][88][90][91][92][99][100][101][102][103]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed Chair nominee may be announced this week. Japan's Prime Minister may resign if the ruling camp fails to win a majority in the House election. China's industrial enterprise profits in 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in December turned positive [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Concerns about the US government's new shutdown risk. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower in the previous trading day, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The spring rally is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to be strong, and large - cap indexes relatively weak [8]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price and basis may strengthen due to pre - holiday restocking demand [14][15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, and polysilicon is in the process of destocking [16][17][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is affected by sentiment, and it is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan [20][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina may oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The upper pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is in a correction, and the short - term trend is affected by market sentiment [25][26]. - **Tin**: The price is affected by Indonesian news and a new model, and it is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [29]. Oils and Fats - **Oilseeds**: They follow the rebound, but lack their own driving force [30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Cracking is strong, but the fundamental situation is still poor [36][37]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has limited upward momentum, and the supply pressure is increasing [38][39]. - **Asphalt**: It is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and it is recommended to focus on the winter - storage situation of refineries [40][41][42]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are expected to rise in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][46]. - **Gold & Silver**: Spot gold is approaching 5,200, and it is recommended to buy on dips [47][49]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices may decline, and offset paper may be affected by cost and supply factors [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: They may have a phased correction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [53][56]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It may fluctuate widely, and it is not recommended to short in the short term [57][59]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamental pressure is not large, and it is affected by macro - emotions [60][62]. - **PE**: The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market sentiment has declined, and it is recommended to focus on export increments and downstream feedback [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or hold light positions [67][71][72]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions [73][74]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: They are in a repeated pattern, with soda ash having an over - supply expectation and glass having a weak supply - demand pattern [75][76]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a bottom - range oscillation, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [77][78]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuations are narrowing, and the price has certain support [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are testing the lower support, and the price may face pressure in the short term [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are oscillating weakly with cost support [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pig**: The price is falling [86]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on downstream orders [88][89]. - **Sugar**: The upward potential is limited [90][91]. - **Egg**: The futures are trading the post - holiday off - season expectation in advance, and the price is under pressure to fall [91][92]. - **Apple**: The spot price is loose, and it is recommended to focus on the shortage of delivery products [99][100]. - **Date**: It may be in a low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on downstream procurement [101]. - **Log**: The volatility has returned to a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Venezuela's oil and gas exploration rights belong to US oil and gas companies, with an upward expectation for capital expenditure. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the short - term rebound of polyethylene (PE) is weaker than that of polypropylene (PP) due to the addition of new PE production capacity and large imports. There are expectations of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the PP2605 contract has no pressure from new production capacity. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17][18] - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6700 - 7000; for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 6500 - 6800. The recommended strategy is to go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information** - Policy: Venezuela's oil and gas exploration rights belong to US oil and gas companies, with an upward expectation for capital expenditure. - Valuation: PE had a weekly decline (spot > futures > cost), and PP also had a weekly decline (spot > futures > cost). - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil fell by - 2.26%, Brent crude oil fell by - 1.92%, coal prices fell by - 2.14%, methanol fell by - 1.10%, ethylene rose by 3.06%, propylene rose by 0.98%, and propane fell by - 0.33%. The cost side stopped falling and rebounded. - Supply: PE capacity utilization was 86.54%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.11%, a year - on - year increase of 1.00%, and a decrease of - 6.15% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization was 75.31%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 1.70%, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.12%, and a decrease of - 13.89% compared to the five - year average. New PE production capacity was launched, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. - Imports and Exports: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.62%. PP imports were 205,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.83%. Import profits decreased, and the supply of PE from North America decreased, reducing import - side pressure. In December, PE exports were 92,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.27% and a year - on - year increase of 58.30%. PP exports were 230,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.89% and a year - on - year increase of 29.81%. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on imports. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 40.80%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 235.25%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 52.53%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.13% and a year - on - year increase of 4.02%. The arrival of the seasonal off - peak season led to no highlights in the downstream operating rates of polyolefins. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 335,000 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 4.37% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 3.08%; PE trader inventory was 26,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 8.93%; PP production enterprise inventory was 432,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 23.09%; PP trader inventory was 182,000 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 6.14%; PP port inventory was 65,300 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 7.51%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced their inventories [15][16] - **Strategy View** - Venezuela's oil and gas exploration rights belong to US oil and gas companies, with an upward expectation for capital expenditure. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the short - term rebound of PE is weaker than that of PP due to the addition of new PE production capacity and large imports. There are expectations of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the PP2605 contract has no pressure from new production capacity. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound. - Forecast for this week: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6700 - 7000; for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 6500 - 6800. - Recommended strategy: Go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **PE Market** - Multiple charts are presented, such as the term structure, main contract price, main contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract trading volume and open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and the ratio of virtual to real contracts of LLDPE, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [30][32][37][39] - **PP Market** - Multiple charts are presented, such as the term structure, main contract price, main contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract trading volume and open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and the ratio of virtual to real contracts of PP, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [45][48][53][55] - **Spread Analysis** - Charts of spreads such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, PP - 3MA, and LL - PVC are presented, showing the historical trends of these spreads [62][66] 3. Cost Side - The cost side of oil - based production stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple charts are presented, including the spot and futures prices and costs of PE and PP, the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., gasoline cracking spreads, P/N/C prices, LPG registered warehouse receipts, domestic LPG spot and futures prices and basis, Saudi CP prices, Far East FEI prices, the supply - side composition of domestic LPG, China's LPG production, China's crude oil processing volume, the capacity utilization rate and gross profit of Chinese major refineries, the capacity utilization rate of Shandong major refineries, China's LPG commercial volume, domestic LPG import dependence, China's LPG import sources, South China's LPG import profits, China's LPG imports, the water levels of the Panama Canal and Gatun Lake, the freight prices from the US and the Middle East to the Far East, LPG refinery and port storage ratios, China's LPG demand and chemical demand proportions, China's olefin LPG actual demand, MTBE production gross profit, MTBE device capacity utilization rate, Shandong MTBE device production, PDH production gross profit, PDH device capacity utilization rate, PDH device production, alkylation oil production gross profit, alkylation oil device capacity utilization rate, alkylation oil device production, US propane prices, production, stocks, exports, and product supply [71][78][84][86][88][90][94][99][101][103][107][112][116][118][120][122][124][128] 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Composition** - The raw materials for PE production mainly include oil (80.00%), light hydrocarbons (12.00%), coal (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%). The historical trends of the proportion of these raw materials are also presented [134][135] - **Production Capacity and Production** - The planned new domestic PE production capacity in 2026 is 5.2 million tons, including projects such as Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase III. Charts of PE production capacity, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, production volume, and LLDPE production volume are presented [139][138][141][143][146][151] 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory** - Charts of PE inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil enterprise inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these inventories [158][161][162] - **Imports/Exports** - The import sources of LLDPE, PE import volume (monthly and cumulative), and LLDPE import profit are presented through charts, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [164][166] 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Composition** - The downstream demand for LLDPE mainly includes packaging film (51.00%), hollow products (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural film (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%). The downstream end - use products and their proportions are also presented [171][176] - **Operating Rates and Inventories** - Charts of the total downstream operating rate of PE, the available days of packaging film, agricultural film order days, agricultural film raw material inventory, downstream raw material inventory, and pipe finished - product inventory are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [180][184][186] 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Composition** - The raw materials for PP production mainly include oil (53.00%), PDH (25.00%), coal (18.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased propylene (2.00%). The historical trends of the proportion of these raw materials are also presented [193][195] - **Production Capacity and Production** - The planned new domestic PP production capacity in 2026 is 4.37 million tons, including projects such as Beifang Huajin and PetroChina Tarim. Charts of PP production capacity, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, production volume are presented [200][199][201][203] 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory** - Charts of PP inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these inventories [210][213][217][222] - **Imports/Exports** - The PP import volume, import profit, export countries, export volume, and export profit are presented through charts, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [225][227][228] 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Composition** - The downstream demand for PP mainly includes drawing (34.00%), high - and low - melt copolymers (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fibers (6.00%), transparent materials (5.00%), pipes (hot and cold water) (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%). The downstream end - use products and their proportions are also presented [233][238] - **Operating Rates and Inventories** - Charts of the total downstream operating rate of PP, injection - molding operating rate, pipe operating rate, plastic - weaving operating rate, plastic - weaving raw material and finished - product inventories, BOPP raw material and finished - product inventories are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [242][246][250][253]