国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：跌价部分标品转产非标，但检修有限供应宽松，期现或难共振 供应 2025年总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工83.7%/+0.4%。上海、茂名、扬 子、宝丰检修，后续埃克森、广东石化检修，供应环比下滑。Q1检修计划同比略低，预计供应维持宽松状态，1月继续有裕龙、独山子等全密度产能 转产HD,标品排产低位，但外盘乙烯裂解利润修复，供应中枢暂宽松看待。 进口中东、美国货源1月货集中到港，总体进口增加或集中在25年底26年初。美国清库压力缓解，国内反弹后，外商试探 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PE prices are expected to be under pressure in Q4 due to the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The cost - end support is average, and the market supply - demand situation is not optimistic. The strategy suggests a bearish view on the single - side market, a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy, and no recommendation for cross - variety trading [6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Supply**: The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production growth rate is 18%. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the overall supply is loose, suppressing prices. The PE total start - up rate is 83.14% (+0.55%). There will be a slight decline in supply next week, but Q4 is expected to maintain a loose supply, with an increasing trend at the end of the year. The US has inventory clearance needs, and imports may remain high at the beginning of the new year [6] - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of agricultural films is flat, and it has reached the annual high, with limited room for further increase. The start - up rate of PE packaging films is - 0.37%, and that of PE pipes is flat, while the start - up rate of PE hollow products is - 0.44%. The downstream performance is neutral, with the support of peak - season demand, but the willingness to hold goods is average [7] - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support of PE is average. The demand - side support is strong, but considering the high start - up rate of agricultural films and the increasing supply pressure at the end of the year, the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. The market may enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, and prices will be under pressure [8] - **Valuation**: The basis has been significantly repaired, and the month - spread has rebounded from a low level, while the warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The production profit of different processes shows different trends, and the variety comparison also has corresponding changes [8] 3.2 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price Spread**: The domestic spot and futures prices, as well as the basis, month - spread, and non - standard price spread, have shown certain changes. The overseas prices of PE are weak and stable, and the import window is open [12][16][22] - **Raw Material Price**: Crude oil is oscillating at a low level, naphtha is sideways, ethylene has stabilized after a decline, and coal prices are relatively strong [36] - **Production Profit**: The overall profit is compressed, especially in the monomer link. The profits of MTO and externally - purchased ethylene processes have been repaired [42] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Capacity**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the nominal capacity growth rate of standard products reached 19.2%, and the effective capacity growth rate was 16.7%. The phased production of standard products has ended, and there will be limited capacity expansion before the 2605 contract [46] - **Existing Start - up**: The supply of standard products is at a neutral level, and the supply will decline slightly in November due to increased maintenance [50] - **Maintenance Plan**: There is an expectation of a decline in subsequent maintenance, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 is temporarily lower than that of last year [53] - **Import and Export**: Domestic production has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level year - on - year. The imports of standard products are at a low level, and the imports from the US and Southeast Asia have decreased year - on - year [57][60] - **Inventory**: As supply gradually recovers and upstream enterprises try to hold prices, factory inventories are accumulating. The LD factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the middle and downstream are mainly digesting previous inventories [65][68] - **Downstream Demand**: The start - up rate of agricultural films is at a high level but is expected to peak. The start - up rate of packaging is the same as last year, and the demand for pipes has slightly improved in Q4. Overall, the downstream demand shows marginal decline signs [70][73][75][79]