行业 能源化工周报 日期 2026 年 3 月 6 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 | ウ聚烯烃 | | --- | | ⇒ 纸浆 | | 宁纯碱 . | | ウ玻璃 | 能化周报 聚烯烃 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 表1.聚烯烃期现货行情 期货行情 周线开盘价 周线收盘价 涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene (PE) industry in China is experiencing explosive capacity growth driven by integrated refining strategies, the rise of private refining, and foreign investment, leading to a supply-demand imbalance characterized by "overcapacity, structural imbalance, and regional concentration" [2][15]. Group 1: Domestic Polyethylene Supply Status - China's polyethylene capacity has expanded significantly, with a total capacity expected to reach 41.14 million tons per year by the end of 2025, marking a 15 percentage point increase in growth rate compared to 2024 [3][16]. - The market structure has shifted from being dominated by state-owned enterprises to a more diversified competition, with private companies accounting for 58% of new capacity in 2025 [4][17]. - The import dependency of polyethylene has decreased, with total imports dropping by 50.36 thousand tons in the first eleven months of 2025, leading to a reduction in import dependency to 28% [4][19]. Group 2: Raw Material Diversification - The raw material structure for polyethylene has evolved into a triad of oil-based, coal-based, and light hydrocarbon-based processes, with oil-based polyethylene accounting for nearly two-thirds of production [5][20]. - Coal-based polyethylene has seen rapid development since 2016, with a production capacity concentrated in coal-rich regions, benefiting from lower costs compared to oil-based processes [6][21]. - The light hydrocarbon-based route is emerging as a significant growth area, although it faces challenges due to reliance on imported feedstock [6][22]. Group 3: Regional Distribution and Structural Optimization - Polyethylene production is concentrated in four major regions: South China, North China, East China, and Northwest China, which together account for over 95% of total capacity [8][23]. - The uneven distribution of capacity has led to supply-demand mismatches, with overcapacity in the Northwest and high demand in South and East China [9][24]. - The market is transitioning to a more efficient logistics model that combines local production and consumption, moving away from traditional transportation methods [8][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Polyethylene Supply - The polyethylene industry is expected to continue its capacity expansion cycle from 2026 to 2030, with an anticipated addition of over 500 thousand tons in 2026 alone [10][11]. - The focus will shift from quantity to quality, with an emphasis on high-end products to fill existing supply gaps, particularly in LDPE and specialty grades [12][27]. - The maturation of the polyethylene futures market will enhance its role in stabilizing supply and guiding industry development, providing better risk management tools for companies [13][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Plastic Part - The supply is expected to increase in January, with some production shifting back to standard products. The futures and spot markets may not continue to resonate. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [5] Polypropylene Part - The valuation has increased, leading some devices to return. The PDH has concentrated maintenance in the first quarter. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is also recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [82][84] 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures prices, spot prices, and various price spreads have changed. The basis has strengthened, and the 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened. The import window has been repaired, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit has been repaired, with significant recent repairs in ethane and externally - purchased ethylene profits [9][13][23][34] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base has increased, with a significant increase in total supply. The current maintenance plan in Q1 is not yet available, and the supply is expected to remain loose. The import volume may remain relatively high at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year [38][40][49] Demand & Inventory - The overall downstream demand is showing signs of decline. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, but the mid - stream inventory reduction has been slow [59][65][77] Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Futures and spot prices, as well as various price spreads, have fluctuated. The basis has strengthened slightly, and the month - spread has fluctuated. The import window is approaching to open, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit is compressed [88][93][100][120] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, the production capacity has increased significantly. The start - up rate has declined recently, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period last year. The subsequent maintenance scale is considerable, and the supply is expected to decrease [128][129][140] Demand & Inventory - The downstream demand is mixed. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, and the oil - based inventory has been significantly reduced [153][160][166]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 11, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Fuqiang [2] Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views PE - The supply of PE is expected to remain relatively loose in the future, with increased imports at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is in a seasonal off - peak period, and the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. The price is under pressure before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The cost - side support for PE is average, and the inventory de - stocking is not smooth. The market is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with a suggestion of shorting on rebounds [6]. PP - In the off - season, the PP price is under pressure. The supply center has declined recently, and the Q1 PDH device maintenance plan has increased. The import and export volumes are expected to remain at a basic level in the short term [92]. - The downstream demand is mixed, with some industries showing weakening demand and others having certain support. The overall inventory de - stocking is not smooth, and the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rebounds [93][94]. Summary by Directory PE Section Price & Spread - The futures price of PE has shown a strong and volatile trend, with the basis remaining stable, and the 5 - 9 month spread strengthening to - 31. The production profit of different processes has different degrees of change, with the oil - based profit at - 520 (+30), and the coal - based at - 80(+70) [6]. - The domestic and overseas prices and spreads of PE have changed, with the Chinese arrival price increasing by 10 - 30 dollars, and the import window gradually opening [15][24]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity growth rate of PE was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18%. The overall start - up rate was 83.7% (+0.4%). Although there were some maintenance and production conversions, the supply was still relatively high [6]. - The import of PE is expected to increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, and the new order imports are relatively cautious [6]. Demand & Inventory - The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is in a seasonal off - peak period, with the agricultural film start - up rate decreasing and the demand for raw materials expected to decrease [6]. - The inventory de - stocking of PE is not smooth, with the social inventory de - stocking slowing down, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory can be transferred downstream [6]. PP Section Price & Spread - The basis of PP is weakly volatile, and the month spread is weakening. The production profit of different processes is under pressure, with the oil - based profit at - 1300 (+10), and the coal - based at - 220(-50) [94]. - The Chinese arrival price of PP has rebounded, and the import window is tending to open, but the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited increase [108]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity growth rate of PP was 12.7%, and the annual production growth rate was 16.7%. The Q1 PDH device maintenance plan has increased, and the supply center has declined [92]. - The PP import volume is expected to be limited in the short term, and the export volume is also restricted by factors such as freight and overseas demand, and is expected to remain at a basic level [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate of PP has declined, but the demand for some industries such as BOPP films is relatively good. The overall inventory de - stocking is not smooth, and the inventory is relatively high compared to the same period [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cost - side support for polyethylene is weak, and the supply - and - demand sides are under significant pressure. The market will fluctuate weakly with large upward pressure, mainly fluctuating in the bottom range in the short term. In the long term, attention can be paid to the structural opportunities brought by high - end production capacity and emerging demand [4][44]. - The cost support is expected to be limited. Crude oil supply is in global surplus with slowing demand growth, and coal supply - demand remains loose with weak and stable prices. Oil and coal provide insufficient cost support for polyethylene, and attention should be paid to the phased disturbances of macro and geopolitical factors on oil and coal prices [3][43]. - The supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to increase. In 2026, domestic polyethylene will continue to expand production, with planned new capacity exceeding 7 million tons and total capacity expected to reach 45 million tons. The proportion of high - pressure and high - end devices will increase. Import is expected to continue to shrink, and the industry focuses on high - performance competition [3][43]. - There is an expectation of slow recovery in demand. Domestic PE demand will gradually pick up, with short - and long - term trends diverging and uncertainties remaining. Stable - growth policies and consumption improvement will support demand, but overseas trade disturbances may restrict exports [3][43]. - There is uncertainty in the alleviation of inventory pressure in the industrial chain. The core variables are the release rhythm of previous production capacity and the strength of demand recovery. If demand does not improve and new capacity is released, inventory may remain high; if demand recovers due to policy stimulation, the pressure is expected to ease [3][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Polyethylene Market Review - **First stage (January 2 - May 30)**: The market was in a game between supply and demand with wide fluctuations. Supply was loose throughout the period, and demand was persistently weak. The overall supply - and - demand situation led to a downward price movement first and then a fluctuating bottom - building, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [6]. - **Second stage (June 3 - August 26)**: The market entered a game between cost support and supply pressure, showing a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing. Cost support from rising crude oil prices and high - level supply coexisted. Downstream demand was divided. The market price was difficult to break through upwards, and the upward rebound power was insufficient [7]. - **Third stage (August 27 - December 31)**: The imbalance between supply and demand intensified, and the market accelerated to the bottom. Supply was stable with new capacity continuously released, and demand was weak. The cost support was weak, and the price dropped to the annual low and then fluctuated at the bottom [8]. 2. Cost - Profit: Limited Support from Oil and Coal, Losses in Dual - Process Profits - **Expected loose supply - and - demand of oil and coal, cost - side under pressure**: In 2025, the crude oil market was in supply - demand surplus with a "high - then - low" price trend and a lower price center. In 2026, the supply - demand surplus pressure will still be large, and the price center will move down. The coking coal market in 2025 had a "V - shaped" price trend, and in 2026, it is expected to remain in a loose supply - demand balance with a low - level operation [11][13]. - **Differentiated dual - process profits, weak cost support awaiting a turnaround**: In 2025, the profitability of coal - based and oil - based LLDPE was significantly different. By the end of the year, both were in a loss state, which suppressed the production enthusiasm of enterprises. In 2026, the raw material cost of polyethylene may move down, but geopolitical and domestic coal price factors may cause disturbances [15][16]. 3. Supply Side: High Pressure from New Domestic Investments, Import May Continue to Shrink - **Continued expansion cycle, pay attention to the realization of new investment capacity**: From 2020 - 2026, it is an expansion cycle for the domestic polyethylene industry. In 2025, the design capacity reached 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.206%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is expected to exceed 7 million tons, and the total capacity may reach 45 million tons, which will intensify competition but also promote product structure upgrading [18][20]. - **Overhaul and expansion go hand in hand, the pressure of abundant market supply in 2026 is difficult to ease**: In 2025, the overhaul loss of polyethylene increased, and the production increased. In 2026, about 5 million tons of new capacity will be put into production, and the supply - side will continue to expand, with intensified competition for general grades and an upgraded supply structure [24][25]. - **Weak recovery of import profit, polyethylene import may continue to shrink**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, new domestic polyethylene plants were put into operation, squeezing imports. In 2025, the import profit declined, and the import volume decreased. In 2026, imports may continue to shrink, depending on domestic supply and import profit recovery [29][31]. 4. Demand Side: There is Still Room for Policy to Take Effect, Demand is Expected to Recover Slowly - **Mild bottom - building and recovery, waiting for the resonance of policy and demand**: In 2025, the domestic economy was in a mild bottom - building and recovery stage, with a slow recovery of internal and external demand. In 2026, domestic demand for plastic products is expected to gradually pick up, but the growth will be moderate due to external uncertainties [33][35]. - **Low downstream start - up, short - term pressure in 2026 awaiting recovery**: In 2025, the downstream start - up of polyethylene decreased year - on - year, and the demand growth was limited. In the long term, emerging industries will create new demand for polyethylene. In the short term, the weak demand pattern may continue until the first half of 2026 [37][39]. 5. Inventory Side: Inventory Center Moves Up, Uncertainty Remains in Pressure Alleviation - In 2025, the overall inventory in the industrial chain was loose, and the inventory center was higher than in previous years. In 2026, there is uncertainty in the alleviation of inventory pressure, which depends on the release rhythm of production capacity and the strength of demand recovery [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - The price of plastics is under pressure due to abundant supply. The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply still suppresses prices. The overall market situation is not optimistic, with a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival [5]. - The strategy suggests a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now [5]. Polypropylene Part - Polypropylene prices are under pressure in the off - season. The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The market is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with an unfavorable supply - demand situation [95]. - Similar to plastics, the strategy recommends a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are also not recommended currently [97]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened significantly as the spot price increases less than the futures price. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened to - 31, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level [5]. - The import window has improved, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level within the year. The non - standard price spread shows that the HD film supply is tight, and the LD has weakened recently [29][32]. Supply - New capacity has been concentratedly put into operation from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. The supply is expected to remain abundant, with a slight decline in the short term and an increase in the future [47]. - The overall inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream. The subsequent supply increase and weak downstream confidence may lead to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Demand & Inventory - The demand for downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films has entered a phased off - season. The overall downstream demand shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease [5]. - The inventory transfer to the middle - stream is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened as the futures price rebounds, and the warehouse receipts have increased again. The cross - period spread is fluctuating [97]. - The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited growth. The non - standard price spread of the drawing material has slightly narrowed [112][119]. Supply - New capacity has been put into operation on a large scale from the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, with an effective capacity growth rate of 12.7%. The supply is expected to be abundant, but there may be a marginal reduction in supply if some PDH devices stop production in January [140]. - The inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the overall inventory is higher than the same period last year [97]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries such as plastic weaving and pipes have seasonally weakened. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend [96]. - The inventory removal is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a high inventory level [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - This week, the polyolefin market declined rapidly due to persistent pessimism. Upstream price cuts failed to stimulate downstream speculative restocking, leading to increased supply pressure and a weaker basis. PE currently faces a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year, restarting of previously shut - down plants, and multiple new plant launches in Q4, while the peak demand season for downstream products is ending [1]. - In the short - term, the market may rebound, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is bearish. The price range for L2605 is expected to be between 6400 - 6700. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - Comparing PE and PP, PP's cost support is relatively strong, with expected marginal improvement in supply in January due to potential plant shutdowns, while PE shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, supporting a narrowing of the L - P spread in the short - term [7]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there will be many new PE plant launches next year, mainly for non - standard products. The supply pressure on LLDPE may ease, but the increased supply of non - standard products could suppress its price [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The rapid decline in the polyolefin market is driven by pessimistic market sentiment. Upstream price cuts couldn't boost downstream restocking, increasing supply pressure and weakening the basis. PE has a supply - demand imbalance with rising supply and falling demand [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term rebound possible, medium - to - long - term bearish. - **Price Range**: L2605 at 6400 - 6700. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term, go short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Base - spread Strategy**: None for now. - **Month - spread Strategy**: None for now. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread in the short - term. Also, inventory management can involve shorting plastic futures and selling call options, while procurement management can involve buying plastic futures and selling put options [12][13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting next year [14]. - **Negative Information**: BASF's 500,000 - ton full - density plant is expected to start production by the end of the year [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic operation [16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The PE market continued to decline, with a larger decline than last week. - **Capital Movement**: The position of the 01 contract decreased as it approaches delivery, while the 05 contract's position increased rapidly. There was no significant change in the top five long and short positions in the order book, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats increased slightly [20]. - **Basis Structure**: Due to pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price fell, driving the market down and weakening the basis. As of Friday, the North China basis was - 36 yuan/ton (down 62 from last week), the East China basis was 74 yuan/ton (down 112), and the South China basis was 24 yuan/ton (down 152) [25]. - **Month - spread Structure**: As the 01 contract's valuation dropped to a very low level and neared delivery, short - term positive arbitrage occurred due to concentrated short - position roll - overs [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [31]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - At the end of the year, PE still faces pressure. Supply is increasing due to limited planned maintenance, restarting plants, and new plant launches, and imports may increase from the end of this year to early next year. Demand is weakening as the peak season for agricultural films ends, intensifying the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [40]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PE operating rate is 84.11% (+0.06%). It is expected to remain high as planned maintenance at the end of the year is limited. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA plant is expected to start soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA plant and BASF's full - density plant are expected to start at the beginning of next year [48]. 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - In terms of imports, the PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, with fewer offers from the US recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to early next year, in the long - run, domestic supply is expected to gradually replace imports. In terms of exports, enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season [57]. 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The current average downstream operating rate of PE is 44.3% (-0.76%), with a significant decline in the agricultural film production operating rate. The growth space for PE demand is limited, further intensifying the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The PE market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand support is insufficient. In the medium - and short - term, a bearish view is taken, and in the long - term, the supply pressure of non - standard PE products may suppress LLDPE prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The pressure is continuously increasing. There are few subsequent device maintenance plans, and the start - up rate is expected to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, new device startups are still concentrated, such as the upcoming startups of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [1]. - Demand side: The support is insufficient. Although the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season, the overall start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. After mid - November, the growth space for demand will be limited, and other downstream industries of PE have insufficient new orders [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Weak oscillation. The price range of L2601 is 6600 - 7000. The strategy is to short on rallies [10]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: No basis strategy; 1 - 5 reverse spread; short - term hedging arbitrage space is limited, and in the long - term, consider narrowing the L - P spread on the 05 contract [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [11]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: On Wednesday, affected by the news of gas restrictions on Iranian devices, the methanol futures market strengthened, and polyolefins briefly followed the upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - The start - up situation of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [12]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: This week, the futures market oscillated downward. The open interest increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top five long and short positions on the order book. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly increased [17]. - **Basis structure**: The spot situation in East China improved and prices stabilized, but the situations in North and South China were still weak. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 32 yuan/ton (strengthened by 47 compared with last week), in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+107), and in South China was 248 yuan/ton (- 3) [20]. - **Spread structure**: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic market expectation for the subsequent macro - situation and the limited start - up of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed. Currently, the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. Since PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, short - term losses usually do not lead to unexpected shutdowns, so PE lacks strong cost - side support in a downward market [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of PE is difficult to change. On the supply side, although device maintenance has increased recently, the high inventory capacity and the upcoming start - up of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, as well as the expected increase in imports after October, will further increase the total supply of PE. On the demand side, although the production and sales of agricultural films are still good, the subsequent growth is limited, and the support from other downstream industries of PE will gradually weaken [31]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Its Deduction - The current PE start - up rate is 82.56% (+1.69%). Multiple devices such as Fushun Petrochemical and ExxonMobil restarted at the beginning of the month, and the device maintenance volume decreased. It is expected that the device maintenance volume will continue to decrease, and with the upcoming start - up of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices, the supply pressure of PE will remain high [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Its Deduction - **Import**: The overseas market is in a loose pattern, and the continuous decline in PE prices has led to an influx of low - price goods into China. Therefore, PE imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Export**: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the total volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [43]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Its Deduction - The current average start - up rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (- 0.52%). The agricultural film industry is still in the peak season, but the start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. As the year - end approaches, the growth space for demand is limited, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up has weakened [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, polyolefins continued their downward trend this week, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and upstream cost fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers. The market should focus on whether Sino - US trade frictions will escalate and if new stimulus policies will be introduced during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - In the long - term, due to the large number of new PE installations planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to increase further. Without new demand - boosting policies, the supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand aspect: The PE supply - demand pattern has not changed much. In October, the device maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and supply returned to a high level. Overseas PE supply - demand is weak, and import is expected to increase from October to November, intensifying supply pressure. Although it is the traditional peak season, demand recovery is slow, downstream orders are insufficient, and enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory is low. PE inventory, especially LLDPE inventory, is at a high level, and the upstream and mid - stream face great shipment pressure [2]. - Macro aspect: The continuous shutdown of the US government and market concerns about credit risks have increased risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market, putting downward pressure on crude oil. Sino - US trade policies are still uncertain, and if trade frictions escalate, it may lead to further price drops in crude oil and chemical products. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session next week is worth attention, and new stimulus policies may boost market sentiment [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: The market should focus on Sino - US trade frictions and new stimulus policies during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - Long - term trading expectation: The supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200, with a current volatility of 8.43% and a historical percentile of 5.8% (3 - year) [13]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [13]. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The market's concern about the US imposing a 100% tariff on China was alleviated by Trump's signal. A 500,000 - ton LLDPE full - density device of Yulong stopped for 5 days due to a fault [15]. - Bearish information: The risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market led to a continuous decline in crude oil prices [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The decline of the plastic market slowed down on Wednesday and Thursday, and the downstream's willingness to buy at the bottom increased, leading to a rapid increase in trading volume [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: In the context of the continuous decline of crude oil, PE prices followed the downward trend. This week, the position increased slightly, and the market's bearish sentiment was strong [22]. - Basis structure: During the decline this week, the spot price weakened following the disk, and the basis strengthened passively [24]. - Spread structure: The spread structure has not changed much recently, and the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - As PE prices continued to be weak, the production profits of all production lines were compressed. The coal - based production line with the best profit is on the verge of losses. PE devices are not sensitive to profit, so short - term losses do not usually cause unexpected shutdowns, resulting in a lack of strong cost support during the price decline [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - With the restart of devices and the commissioning of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually emerge. After October, imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total PE supply. Although it is the traditional peak season for PE downstream, demand growth is expected to be lower than supply. In October, inventory is expected to change from destocking to stocking rapidly, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern will suppress PE prices [34]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.76% (- 2.19%). This week, the device maintenance volume increased slightly. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device is in the trial - run stage. Overall, the return of maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity in the fourth quarter will lead to continuous high supply pressure [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The overseas PE supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price difference between the US and China has dropped to a historical low. It is expected that PE imports will increase from late October to November [41]. - Export: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [41]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Deduction - The average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 42.17% (+ 0.56%). The agricultural film operating rate increased significantly, but the growth is slower than in previous years. Other downstream demand is flat, so the demand - side support for PE is limited [44].