Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, OPEC+ suspends crude oil production increase, and demand is in the peak season, so international oil prices are expected to strengthen. However, if production increase resumes, it will still suppress oil prices. The market is at an important node, and future oil price fluctuations are expected to widen [4][55][127] - In the polyester industry chain, demand will decline due to the Spring Festival in Q1 2026, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will first decrease and then increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate is mainly affected by the operating rate. The price decline in Q1 is considered a buying opportunity, and the weak ethylene glycol price in 2025 is also expected to strengthen [10][82][127] - Currently, the profits in the entire industry chain are mainly concentrated in the PX segment, and the profit situation of polyester products is generally poor. This situation is expected to continue in Q1 2026, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the pressure on profit decline during the demand decline [128] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In Q4 2025, the prices of PX and PTA first fell and then rose, and finally increased slightly for the whole year. Ethylene glycol prices showed a continuous downward trend, with a significant decline in December. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices first fell and then rose, but still declined for the whole year [16] - PX: In Q4 2025, the supply and demand situation was not good, but the price increased due to the tight supply and continuous inventory reduction of PTA. The operating rate was high, with little room for further improvement [17] - PTA: Since H2 2025, the operating rate has been lower than the previous year, especially in Q4. In November, many devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production and inventory. The price increased significantly in December, and the futures price increased by about 4.6% for the whole year [20][21][22] - MEG: In 2025, new production capacity was put into operation, and the operating rate increased, resulting in a significant increase in supply. In Q4, the supply was loose, and the price continued to fall, with an annual decline of more than 20% [24][27] - Short - fiber: There was no new device put into operation in the past two years. In Q4, the operating rate was generally stable, and the output increased year - on - year. The domestic consumption demand was weak, and the price first fell and then rose, with an annual decline of 4.6% [29][30] - Bottle - chip: In 2025, the production capacity expansion slowed down, but there was still supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the cumulative output increased by 7% year - on - year. The export volume increased significantly, but the domestic demand growth was limited, and the price fell by 2.3% for the whole year [31][33][36] II. OPEC+ Suspends Crude Oil Production Increase in Q1, but the Expectation of Supply Glut Remains - Geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, but the expectation of interfering with crude oil production is not strong. In 2025, OPEC+ changed from production cut to production increase, and decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. However, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in March [37] - The EIA continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast in 2025, while the demand adjustment was relatively small. The global crude oil supply became looser, and the supply glut increased in 2025 and 2026 [37][38][40] - In Q1, the heating oil demand is strong, which supports the refinery operating rate. The international oil price is near the low point in recent years, and the current is an important node for oil price fluctuations, with expected wider future fluctuations [45] III. Spring Maintenance in Q1, the Operating Rate of Some Links Will Change Significantly - There is no new device production plan for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in Q1 2026. The PX operating rate is expected to decline significantly due to the spring maintenance, while the impact on the PTA operating rate is expected to be small [56] - Ethylene glycol has many new device production plans in 2026, but there is no plan in Q1. The production profit is poor, and the domestic output may decline [70][73][80] IV. Demand is Affected by Seasonal Factors, and the Polyester Operating Rate Will First Decrease and Then Increase - In Q1, the demand will fluctuate greatly and decline overall due to the Spring Festival. The polyester operating rate will first decrease and then increase, and the output is expected to decline significantly [82][85] - Affected by the decline in demand for polyester raw materials, the inventory will increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, but the negative impact of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation on price in Q1 is expected to weaken [92][95] - The profits of polyester products are generally poor and difficult to improve in Q1. The profits of long - filament and short - fiber are under greater downward pressure, especially during the demand decline [96][98][100] - The long - filament inventory has pressure to increase rapidly in Q1, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is relatively small before the new device is put into operation [107][109] - The operating rate of looms will fluctuate greatly in Q1, and the average operating rate is expected to be higher than that in 2025. The output of yarn and grey cloth is generally low, and the inventory change is relatively small [110][112][113] V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel demand is not high and will maintain a low - growth trend. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel retail sales fluctuates [115][118] - The global economic and trade relations have eased, which is beneficial to the recovery of textile and apparel exports. Although China's textile and apparel exports declined in 2025, they are expected to recover in 2026 [119][120][121] VI. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In Q4 2025, international oil prices continued to be weak, and the polyester industry chain (except ethylene glycol) first fell and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradictions in some links of the polyester industry chain were prominent, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol diverged significantly. The profits in the industry chain were concentrated in the PX segment [123][124][126] - Outlook: In Q1 2026, international oil prices are expected to strengthen, and the demand in the polyester industry chain will decline due to the Spring Festival. The price decline is considered a buying opportunity, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to strengthen. The current profit situation in the industry chain is expected to continue, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the profit decline pressure [127][128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: In November, PTA was in a balanced state. With multiple device overhauls implemented and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the supply pressure was relieved, and the spot processing fee was repaired. In December, the inventory accumulation expectation decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around a wide - balance, with an optimistic outlook on the absolute price [1][10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price of MEG dropped to a near - three - year low due to the long - term oversupply situation. After some device shutdowns, the load declined, and it was expected to decline slightly in December. Although overseas supply was abundant, the recent improvement in the supply - demand situation limited the downside space of the futures price [2][10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The short - fiber operating load was at a high level with good inventory, but the spot processing fee decreased compared to last month. The bottle - chip was still the segment with the greatest supply - demand pressure in the polyester industry, and its spot processing fee narrowed. The overall resilience of the polyester load delayed the inventory accumulation expectation of raw materials [2][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Logic - PTA: Multiple device overhauls since November alleviated the pressure of new capacity. The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to exports. With reduced supply, the spot processing fee was repaired, and the December inventory accumulation expectation decreased [10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price hit a near - three - year low due to long - term oversupply. After some device shutdowns, the load decreased, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas supply was abundant, but the supply - demand situation improved recently, limiting the downside space of the futures price [10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. The short - fiber had a high operating load and good inventory, while the bottle - chip had great supply - demand pressure. The terminal market was mediocre in November and might improve slightly in December. The polyester load's resilience delayed raw material inventory accumulation [11]. 3.2 PTA Overhaul Increases, Supply - Demand Pressure Eases 3.2.1 PX Pattern is Good - In November, oil prices were weak. PX had a strong supply - demand structure. Its inventory was low, and new capacity was expected to be supplied in the second half of next year, with concentrated overhauls in the second quarter. The PX - N spread rose above $260/ton [15]. 3.2.2 PTA Supply Narrows, Processing Fee Improves Slightly - This year, three new PTA devices were put into operation, increasing the effective capacity by 10% compared to the end of last year. In November, multiple device overhauls postponed the new capacity pressure. With polyester operating at over 91%, the PTA supply - demand was in a wide - balance. The spot processing fee recovered from below 100 yuan/ton to 150 - 200 yuan/ton, but the industry was still in an overall loss [17][21]. 3.2.3 PTA Balance Forecast - The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to China's PTA exports in the short term. In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports to India were 20.1 million tons. In November, the PTA output was 6.26 billion tons with a 10 - million - ton inventory increase. In December, the first half - month had less supply pressure, and the overall market was not pessimistic [24][25]. 3.3 MEG Supply - Demand Improves, Short - term Downside Space is Limited 3.3.1 Supply Narrows - In late October, the MEG load reached a recent high, and the supply was abundant. In the long - term, new devices added to the supply pressure, causing the price to hit a near - three - year low. Since November, the load has dropped by about 2%, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas, the overall supply was high [30]. 3.3.2 Overseas Supply is Not Low - Currently, the overall domestic and overseas supply is abundant. In December, Middle - East supplies will shrink moderately. Since September, the East China terminal inventory has nearly doubled, and the import volume in October increased to 654,000 tons, expected to continue rising in November and December [35][36]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Forecast - In late November, the MEG factory inventory decreased, and the polyester factory's raw material inventory increased slightly. In December, with the polyester load at 90 - 91%, MEG was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the downside space was not overly pessimistic [38]. 3.4 Downstream Demand is Resilient 3.4.1 Polyester Improves Month - on - Month - In November, the polyester load was maintained at around 91.3%. The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. In November, two new filament devices were put into operation, and two more will be released in December, increasing the demand for raw materials. The short - fiber production increased significantly in November, with good inventory control. The export growth rate was high, and the market was expected to follow raw material fluctuations. The bottle - chip supply pressure was high, the processing fee was weak, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with limited future driving forces [44][51][62]. 3.4.2 Terminal Demand is Average - In terms of domestic demand, from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth of retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 3.5%. In October, the domestic retail sales increased by 7%. In terms of exports, in October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.6%. From January to October, the cumulative export was $243.94 billion. The weaving order days decreased in November, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped to 72%. Domestic sales demand weakened, and exports might improve slightly [72].