期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7260 | 5110 | 3803 | 6514 | 432.2 | | 涨跌 | -56 | -34 | -44 | -50 | -3.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.76% | -0.89% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -36 | -44 | -194 | -54 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -36 | -187 | -70 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -8 | ...

需求方面，西南期货指出，本周一套聚酯长丝和短纤装置停车检修，一套长丝长停装置升温重启中，尚 未正常出产品，聚酯负荷在91.2%。2025年12月1日起，国内大陆地区聚酯产能上修至8984万吨，新增 新疆宇欣、安徽佑顺各30万吨新装置。江浙终端开工基本维持，工厂原料备货下降。 库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，本周PTA工厂库存在3.92天，较上周+0.14天，较去年同期+0.2 天；聚酯工厂PTA原料库存在7.5天，较上周+0.7天，较去年同期-0.5天。 展望后市，新湖期货表示，PTA低估值下支撑较强，但目前累库预期仍在，加工费未见修复，跟随PX 走势为主。 11月12日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其PTA期货呈现震荡下行走势，主力合约报收于4614.00元/ 吨，小幅下跌1.03%。 供应方面，中金财富期货分析称，截至12月上旬，国内PTA开工负荷维持在73.7%，鉴于低加工利润、 终端需求下滑和累库存预期，后续PTA装置运行稳定性仍然堪忧。 ...

研究报告—月报 金融研究院、投资咨询部 报告日期 聚酯板块系列专题报告行情篇 MEG：远期供应宽松的笼罩下，11月下旬期价降至近三 年低位。随着部分装置停车，乙二醇负荷自高位有所 回落。12月油制装置检修增加，乙二醇负荷或仍有小 幅回落预期。海外装置方面，远洋货较为充裕，进口 量或将继续走高。近期乙二醇供需局面有一定好转， 期价下方空间料有限。 短纤&瓶片：短纤开工负荷处于高位区间，库存良性， 现货加工费环比上月有所回落，下游纱厂刚需备货为 主；而瓶片依然是聚酯行业中供需压力最大的环节， 负荷在 8 成附近波动，随着原料成本的上移及需求季 节性回落，瓶片现货加工费有一定的收窄。聚酯负荷 整体韧性，延缓原料端的累库预期。 | | | 2025 年 12 月 3 日 （PTA/MEG/聚酯）： 累库预期延后 PTA：11月整体平衡状态。由于四川能投、英力士均在 12月下才会重启，逸盛宁波也延长检修，供应损失量 明显提升，12月累库预期下降，预计整体宽平衡附近 波动，绝对价格不悲观。 张永鸽 Tel：02552278992 Email：zhangyongge@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F0282934 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester industries, covering their basic knowledge, production, trade, and market conditions. It highlights the high concentration of PTA and MEG production in Asia, especially in China, and the significant growth in domestic production capacity in recent years. The report also discusses the trade patterns, profit situations, and market trends of these industries [12][24][43]. 3. Summary by Directory PTA Basics - **Definition and Market Introduction**: PTA, or purified terephthalic acid, was the first chemical futures variety listed in China in December 2006. It is a raw material for polyester with end - uses mainly in textile, clothing, and soft drinks [12]. - **Storage and Transportation**: Mainly stored in packaging bags at East China's main port terminals, with storage areas along the Yangtze River, Hangzhou Bay, and Xiamen. Transportation is mainly by sea and inland waterways, with some short - distance transportation by road [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Produced from crude oil via PX, it is mainly used to produce polyester (PET). One ton of PET requires 0.855 tons of PTA and 0.332 tons of MEG. About 70% of PTA is used for polyester fibers, 24% for bottle - grade polyester, and the rest for film - grade polyester [19][20]. - **Production Capacity**: Global PTA capacity is mainly in Asia (nearly 90%), with China accounting for over 78% of Asia's capacity. As of November 2025, China's effective PTA capacity reached 9471.5 million tons [24]. - **Capacity Distribution**: Regionally concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with private enterprises being the main suppliers. Yisheng and Hengli account for 41% of the total capacity [27][28]. - **Import and Export**: China's PTA imports have decreased from 2.74 million tons in 2013 to 18,000 tons in 2024, while exports reached 4.42 million tons in 2024, mainly to other Asian regions and Russia [31]. - **Profit Situation**: From 2016 - 2019, the industry had high profits due to limited new capacity and downstream recovery. From 2020 - 2024, private large - scale refineries' concentrated production led to compressed processing fees and the elimination of some high - cost small - scale plants [36]. - **Trading Patterns**: Include long - term contracts (referencing CCF's daily average price with appropriate premiums/discounts), spot trading (futures + price - fixing), and derivative pricing methods (futures price - fixing + monthly/weekly average basis) [38]. MEG Basics - **Definition and Application**: Ethylene glycol (MEG) is an important petrochemical raw material, mainly used in polyester production. Globally, about 85% of MEG is used in polyester, while in China, over 93% is used in polyester [43]. - **Production Process**: The main synthesis routes are the ethylene route (including petroleum ethylene, ethane ethylene, and MTO ethylene methods) and the oxalate route. The ethylene method is the global mainstream, while China mainly uses the petroleum ethylene method and the coal - to - ethylene glycol oxalate method [50][51]. - **Profitability of Different Processes**: Coal - to - MEG's profit has improved significantly this year, with higher operating loads. Ethylene - based MEG has been operating below the break - even point, but losses have narrowed compared to the previous two years [54]. - **Production Capacity Development**: China's MEG production capacity has reached 30.075 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for about 64% and coal - based capacity accounting for 36% [58][62]. - **Production Distribution**: Ethylene - based plants are mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, while coal - based plants are in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia [62]. - **Import and Export**: MEG imports peaked in 2020 and have since declined. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 25%, with the main import sources being Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United States [65]. Downstream Polyester Basics - **PTA/MEG's Downstream Products**: The main downstream demand for PTA/MEG is polyester, which is used in textile, clothing, beverages, and film products. Filament has the largest share in polyester, followed by short - fiber and bottle - chips [69]. - **Short - Fiber Basics**: Polyester short - fiber is made from PTA and MEG. Its trade pattern is mainly from east to west and bidirectional north - south. The main production and sales areas are Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang, with transportation mainly by road, water, and rail [71][76][77]. - **Short - Fiber Industry Chain**: It is produced from crude oil via PTA and MEG, with end - uses in filling, non - woven, and spinning. In 2024, spinning accounted for 64% of direct - spun polyester short - fiber production [79]. - **Short - Fiber Production Capacity Distribution**: Concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In recent years, short - fiber exports have increased significantly, with 1.318 million tons exported in 2024, a 9.4% increase year - on - year, and 1.255 million tons exported from January - September 2025, a 31% increase year - on - year [83][88]. - **Polyester Bottle - Chips Basics**: Made from PTA and MEG, used mainly for packaging. Sales are divided into direct sales (60% - 70%) and distribution (30% - 40%) [91][102]. - **Bottle - Chips Production Capacity**: Production capacity has increased rapidly, exceeding 20 million tons at the end of 2024, almost doubling since the end of 2022 [105]. - **Bottle - Chips Demand**: Global demand has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2015 - 2024. In 2024, the main downstream consumption areas were soft drinks (39%), exports (42.4%), sheet materials (15.8%), and oil bottles (2.9%) [108]. - **Bottle - Chips Export Trade**: China is the world's largest net exporter, with exports widely distributed. In 2024, the top five export destinations accounted for only 23% of total exports [112][113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for the export of PTA and filaments, but the new production capacity in India and Indonesia in 2026 may reduce their import volume. The export of filaments may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons per month in 2026 [2]. - The low price of ethylbenzene drives the expectation of blending oil, and the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America has started, leading to the rise of PX and PTA prices [2]. - The supply of oil from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly since Q3, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [2]. - For PX, the domestic PX plant load has reached a high level in recent years, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. For TA, there is limited inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it will increase after December. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2][3][5][6]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), with improved domestic sales orders since late October. The polyester load in November is expected to remain around 91% [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 156 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. The processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][6]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract has limited upside space due to inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no cross - variety and cross - period strategies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][13][15] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [29][32][33] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][80][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][90][98]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 92.162 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14.90% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased to 1.26 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 108.91% [1] - Operating cash flow reached 11.788 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 251.46% [1] - As of the end of Q3, total assets amounted to 212.803 billion RMB, with net assets attributable to shareholders at 34.331 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Operational Highlights - The company maintained stable operations across its industrial sectors, focusing on "high-end, digital, and green" development strategies [2] - The petrochemical sector's integrated refining and chemical project operated smoothly, with over 70% of products being chemical products [3] - In the new energy and materials sector, EVA production capacity reached 900,000 tons/year, solidifying the company's leading position [4] - The company has successfully launched a 100,000 tons/year POE facility, catering to various customer needs [4] Group 3: Future Development Plans - The company aims to fully embrace artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness [7] - Continued focus on the "1+N" industrial strategy to drive innovation and high-end product development [8] - Emphasis on risk management to ensure coordinated development of industry and capital, with a healthy cash flow of 11.788 billion RMB [9] - Confidence in future growth is reflected in the controlling shareholder's plan to increase shareholding by 500 million to 1 billion RMB [10] Group 4: Q&A Insights - The decline in revenue is attributed to lower crude oil prices, while profit margins improved due to operational efficiency measures [11] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from industry adjustments and policy changes [12] - Current capital expenditures are expected to decrease, with no new large-scale projects planned [12] - The procurement strategy for crude oil remains flexible, adapting to market conditions [12]

Group 1 - Company announced a planned investment of 5.6 billion yuan for a new project to produce 1.2 million tons of differentiated fibers annually [2] - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase involving the establishment of production facilities for 600,000 tons of polyester filament [2] - The construction aims to enhance product diversification and quality, thereby improving market competitiveness and profitability amid increasing industry pressures [2] Group 2 - The chemical fiber industry is facing heightened competition, energy and raw material shortages, and significant environmental challenges [2] - The project is expected to utilize some of the existing equipment from the parent company, indicating a strategic approach to resource management [2] - The second phase of the project will also focus on balancing industry supply and demand while considering market conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhejiang Hengsheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., plans to invest in a green differentiated fiber project with a total investment of 5.6 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase involving the establishment of two production lines with a combined annual capacity of 600,000 tons of polyester filament and a texturing workshop [1] - The second phase will also include two production lines with a combined annual capacity of 600,000 tons of polyester filament [1] - The company will steadily advance the project by balancing industry supply and demand along with market conditions [1]

Core Insights - Teijin's subsidiary in Thailand plans to increase polyester filament production capacity to 620 tons per year to meet the rising demand for recycled polyester filaments driven by resource recycling initiatives and the EU's proposed End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) regulation [1] Group 1: Production Capacity Expansion - Teijin Polyester (Thailand) Co., Ltd. aims to enhance its production capacity to address the significant growth in demand for recycled polyester filaments [1] - The expansion is influenced by the EU's 2023 ELV regulation proposal, which strengthens recycling efforts and aims to reduce waste [1] Group 2: Market Demand - The demand for polyester filaments with enhanced features such as high strength and flame resistance is continuously increasing due to the new regulations [1] - Teijin's subsidiary, Teijin Frontier, is currently producing yarns that meet these specific demands [1] Group 3: Production Challenges - The production capacity enhancement faces bottlenecks as the front-end processing equipment is tasked with producing both recycled polyester filaments for industrial fibers and functional polyester filaments for other industrial materials [1] - The high-strength recycled polyester filaments and functional polyester filaments produced at the Thai facility are intended for sale in Japan and international markets [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 60.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 386 million yuan, an increase of 21.24% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 271 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 166.21% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow reached 2.811 billion yuan, up 39.14% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Asset Overview - As of June 30, 2025, total assets amounted to 213.335 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to shareholders at 34.544 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Business Segments Performance - The petrochemical segment generated revenue of 44.202 billion yuan with a net profit of 257 million yuan, showing significant improvement [2] - The company’s EVA production capacity reached 900,000 tons, solidifying its leading position in the industry [2] - The polyester filament business operated steadily, although gross margins slightly narrowed [2] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company aims to fully embrace artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency across production, supply chain, and environmental safety [3] - Continued focus on the "1+N" industrial strategy to drive innovation and high-end product development [3] - Plans to maintain healthy cash flow and manage capital expenditures effectively [4] Group 5: Shareholder Confidence - In May 2025, the controlling shareholder announced a share buyback plan totaling 2.02 billion yuan, with additional plans to increase holdings by 500 million to 1 billion yuan in June [5]