货 金 聚酯板块系列专题报告 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 融 研 究 院 ——基础知识篇 弘 业 期 01丨PTA基础知识 02丨MEG基础知识 03丨下游聚酯基础知识 PTA基础知识 什么是PTA 弘 业 期 货 金 融 Ø PTA在2006年12月登陆我国期货市场，是国内上市的第一个化工期货品种，也是脉络复杂的化工产业链中相对简单的一个品种。 研 究 院 Ø PTA是精对苯二甲酸的英文简称，在常温下是白色粉状晶体，无毒、无味、易燃，是下游产品聚酯的原料之一，终端需求主要 是纺织服装、软饮料。 数据来源：公开资料、弘业金融研究院 PTA的仓储和运输 PTA主流的存储是用包装袋打包，囤放在华东主港码头，PTA的仓 储地分布在长江沿岸（江苏段）、杭州湾和福建厦门等主流消费 地。因PTA主流的工厂在大连和宁波地区，一般PTA是走海运到长 江转口内河水路运输，运输成本相对便宜，部分上下游距离较近 企业汽运也有。 弘 业 期 货 金 小于150公里，槽罐 PTA 车运输，约30吨 江浙地区中长途运输 采用运河船舶单船载 重500-700吨 船舶，5000吨- 15000吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for the export of PTA and filaments, but the new production capacity in India and Indonesia in 2026 may reduce their import volume. The export of filaments may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons per month in 2026 [2]. - The low price of ethylbenzene drives the expectation of blending oil, and the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America has started, leading to the rise of PX and PTA prices [2]. - The supply of oil from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly since Q3, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [2]. - For PX, the domestic PX plant load has reached a high level in recent years, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. For TA, there is limited inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it will increase after December. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2][3][5][6]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), with improved domestic sales orders since late October. The polyester load in November is expected to remain around 91% [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 156 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. The processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][6]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract has limited upside space due to inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no cross - variety and cross - period strategies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][13][15] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [29][32][33] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][80][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][90][98]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 92.162 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14.90% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased to 1.26 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 108.91% [1] - Operating cash flow reached 11.788 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 251.46% [1] - As of the end of Q3, total assets amounted to 212.803 billion RMB, with net assets attributable to shareholders at 34.331 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Operational Highlights - The company maintained stable operations across its industrial sectors, focusing on "high-end, digital, and green" development strategies [2] - The petrochemical sector's integrated refining and chemical project operated smoothly, with over 70% of products being chemical products [3] - In the new energy and materials sector, EVA production capacity reached 900,000 tons/year, solidifying the company's leading position [4] - The company has successfully launched a 100,000 tons/year POE facility, catering to various customer needs [4] Group 3: Future Development Plans - The company aims to fully embrace artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness [7] - Continued focus on the "1+N" industrial strategy to drive innovation and high-end product development [8] - Emphasis on risk management to ensure coordinated development of industry and capital, with a healthy cash flow of 11.788 billion RMB [9] - Confidence in future growth is reflected in the controlling shareholder's plan to increase shareholding by 500 million to 1 billion RMB [10] Group 4: Q&A Insights - The decline in revenue is attributed to lower crude oil prices, while profit margins improved due to operational efficiency measures [11] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from industry adjustments and policy changes [12] - Current capital expenditures are expected to decrease, with no new large-scale projects planned [12] - The procurement strategy for crude oil remains flexible, adapting to market conditions [12]

Group 1 - Company announced a planned investment of 5.6 billion yuan for a new project to produce 1.2 million tons of differentiated fibers annually [2] - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase involving the establishment of production facilities for 600,000 tons of polyester filament [2] - The construction aims to enhance product diversification and quality, thereby improving market competitiveness and profitability amid increasing industry pressures [2] Group 2 - The chemical fiber industry is facing heightened competition, energy and raw material shortages, and significant environmental challenges [2] - The project is expected to utilize some of the existing equipment from the parent company, indicating a strategic approach to resource management [2] - The second phase of the project will also focus on balancing industry supply and demand while considering market conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhejiang Hengsheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., plans to invest in a green differentiated fiber project with a total investment of 5.6 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase involving the establishment of two production lines with a combined annual capacity of 600,000 tons of polyester filament and a texturing workshop [1] - The second phase will also include two production lines with a combined annual capacity of 600,000 tons of polyester filament [1] - The company will steadily advance the project by balancing industry supply and demand along with market conditions [1]

Core Insights - Teijin's subsidiary in Thailand plans to increase polyester filament production capacity to 620 tons per year to meet the rising demand for recycled polyester filaments driven by resource recycling initiatives and the EU's proposed End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) regulation [1] Group 1: Production Capacity Expansion - Teijin Polyester (Thailand) Co., Ltd. aims to enhance its production capacity to address the significant growth in demand for recycled polyester filaments [1] - The expansion is influenced by the EU's 2023 ELV regulation proposal, which strengthens recycling efforts and aims to reduce waste [1] Group 2: Market Demand - The demand for polyester filaments with enhanced features such as high strength and flame resistance is continuously increasing due to the new regulations [1] - Teijin's subsidiary, Teijin Frontier, is currently producing yarns that meet these specific demands [1] Group 3: Production Challenges - The production capacity enhancement faces bottlenecks as the front-end processing equipment is tasked with producing both recycled polyester filaments for industrial fibers and functional polyester filaments for other industrial materials [1] - The high-strength recycled polyester filaments and functional polyester filaments produced at the Thai facility are intended for sale in Japan and international markets [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 60.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 386 million yuan, an increase of 21.24% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 271 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 166.21% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow reached 2.811 billion yuan, up 39.14% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Asset Overview - As of June 30, 2025, total assets amounted to 213.335 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to shareholders at 34.544 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Business Segments Performance - The petrochemical segment generated revenue of 44.202 billion yuan with a net profit of 257 million yuan, showing significant improvement [2] - The company’s EVA production capacity reached 900,000 tons, solidifying its leading position in the industry [2] - The polyester filament business operated steadily, although gross margins slightly narrowed [2] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company aims to fully embrace artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency across production, supply chain, and environmental safety [3] - Continued focus on the "1+N" industrial strategy to drive innovation and high-end product development [3] - Plans to maintain healthy cash flow and manage capital expenditures effectively [4] Group 5: Shareholder Confidence - In May 2025, the controlling shareholder announced a share buyback plan totaling 2.02 billion yuan, with additional plans to increase holdings by 500 million to 1 billion yuan in June [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with low valuations, there is no need to chase short positions in the short term. For PX, supply continues to shrink, and the unilateral price rebounds. For PTA, the cost is supported, but the monthly spread is under pressure, with the unilateral price oscillating slightly stronger. For MEG, the unilateral price oscillates stably, and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG should be closed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The volatility of the unilateral price comes from crude oil. In July, the supply - demand of PX remains tight, and it is advisable to go long on the monthly spread at low prices. The PXN strengthens, and the gasoline cracking spread also strengthens, improving the refinery's enthusiasm for starting operations. The toluene disproportionation profit continues to rise, while the toluene chemical economy weakens month - on - month, and the MX chemical economy rebounds month - on - month [18][22][30]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The load of CICC Petrochemical decreases, and the PX load slightly drops. In July, attention should be paid to the maintenance plans of Tianjin Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. In May, the domestic PX output increased to 2.97 million tons, and the weekly operating rate was 83.8% (- 1.8%). The apparent consumption in May was 3.55 million tons. In May, the import volume increased to 773,000 tons month - on - month. The Asian PX device operating rate this week was 74.3% (- 1.3%). In May, the Longzhong PX monthly inventory decreased to 4.51 million tons [53][55][62][79]. 3.2 PTA 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The TA device load increases, and the volume of credit warehouse receipts increases at high prices. The cost rises, the PX profit decreases, and the PTA profit remains at a low level. The 9 - 1 monthly spread around 200 yuan is recommended to be closed or appropriately reverse - arbitraged [89][96][95]. 3.2.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The de - stocking intensity narrows, and this week may turn into a stocking pattern. In May, the PTA output was 5.91 million tons, a 1% increase month - on - month. The container freight rate drops, which is beneficial for exports. In May, the export volume was 270,000 tons, a significant decrease. The social inventory is 2.16 million tons (- 40,000 tons), the de - stocking slope slows down, and it will gradually turn into a stocking pattern in July [99][101][108][122]. 3.3 MEG 3.3.1 Valuation and Profit - With the return of Iranian supply and weakening demand, the monthly spread and basis drop significantly. The seasonal demand for ethylene oxide decreases, and attention should be paid to the conversion of production. The profits of coal - based, MTO, and ethylene - purchased MEG production decline from high levels, while the profit of naphtha - based MEG production recovers [130][134][136]. 3.3.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The device operating rate drops. In May, the ethylene glycol import volume was 600,000 tons, and the import from the Middle East decreased. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on ethylene glycol imports may be reflected in August. The import profit decreases month - on - month, which may affect the June imports. The port continues to de - stock, and the import volume will continue to increase to 110,000 - 120,000 tons next week [144][146][151][156]. 3.4 Polyester 3.4.1 Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. 3.4.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.2% (- 0.8%). Multiple polyester devices reduce production, and the overall load will drop to 89.3%. The polyester output increases by 8% year - on - year. This week, the sales are sluggish, and the downstream enters the off - season [160][163][166][168].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1]. - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering. The supply - demand structure in June still shows a favorable inventory reduction, but after the warehouse receipts are cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will increase. The load will return to a high level in July. Overseas, although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes. Later, the recovery of domestic production and the increase in Saudi supply will largely offset the impact of the shutdown of Iranian plants. On the demand side, the current situation is firm, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the end of June and beginning of July, and the demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3]. - For trading strategies, the short - term outlook is bullish. Attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and if the conflict eases, prices may fall. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1] Demand - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Inventory - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's chemical industry is undergoing significant restructuring, with major companies exiting low-margin businesses and focusing on high-value-added materials and sustainable practices to enhance competitiveness in a challenging market environment [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Position and Market Dynamics - Japan's new materials industry holds a leading position globally, particularly in semiconductor materials, specialty chemicals, and carbon fiber, with companies like Toray and Mitsubishi Chemical being key players [1]. - Recent trends show a withdrawal from certain sectors, with major companies like Kuraray and Mitsui Chemicals announcing production halts and business exits, indicating a strategic shift in response to market pressures [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Future Focus - Companies are restructuring to focus on high-growth, high-margin sectors, with an emphasis on specialty chemicals and sustainable materials, as seen in Mitsui Chemical's plans for a global specialty chemicals business [5]. - The overarching strategy across major firms includes transitioning towards high-performance materials and green technologies, aligning with global trends in energy transition and environmental regulations [4][5][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Pressures - The Japanese chemical sector faces challenges such as declining domestic demand due to population decrease and economic downturn, alongside increased competition from rapidly developing Asian markets [3][4]. - The implementation of carbon border adjustment mechanisms and pressures from global carbon markets are further complicating the operational landscape for traditional chemical businesses [4].